You’ve spent all summer staring at draft boards. You’ve argued about ADP until you’re blue in the face. Honestly, none of that matters now. Week 1 is here, and it is a completely different beast than the rest of the season.
There’s this weird panic that sets in during the first set of games. People see one bad half from their first-round pick and start looking for the "trade" button. Stop. Breathe. NFL fantasy week 1 isn't just about who scores the most points; it’s about figuring out which off-season narratives were actually real and which were just smoke.
The 2025 season is starting with some absolutely wild storylines. We have a Thursday night divisional banger with the Cowboys at the Eagles. We’ve got a Friday night game in Sao Paulo between the Chiefs and Chargers. This isn't your normal Sunday routine. You have to be flexible, or you're gonna get left behind before the Monday night Vikings-Bears game even kicks off.
The Brazil Factor and Other Scheduling Weirdness
Let’s talk about that Friday night game. The Chiefs and Chargers are heading to Brazil. Travel like that does weird things to players. It’s not just the jet lag; it’s the routine.
Patrick Mahomes is usually a lock, but in a neutral site international game to start the season? It’s okay to be a little nervous. On the flip side, Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers are probably going to try and run the ball 40 times. If you drafted J.K. Dobbins or Gus Edwards late, this might be the one week they actually look like league-winners because Harbaugh wants to set a physical tone.
Then you have the Sunday night game: Baltimore at Buffalo. This is the heavy-hitter matchup. Josh Allen versus Lamar Jackson.
Most "experts" will tell you to start everyone in this game. I’d be careful. The Ravens' defense is notorious for taking away a team’s best option. If you’re banking on James Cook to repeat his Pro Bowl numbers from last year in this specific matchup, you might be disappointed. Baltimore's front seven is a nightmare. Honestly, I’m looking at Khalil Shakir as the sneaky play here. With Tyrell Shavers and Gabe Davis out with ACL injuries, Allen is going to have to throw to someone, and Shakir in the slot is the safest bet to avoid Pat Surtain II if he shadows.
Trust the Rookies or Wait?
Every year, people overthink the rookies in Week 1.
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Look at the Giants-Commanders game. Jayden Daniels is the guy everyone is watching. He’s going up against a Giants defense that... well, it’s the Giants. They’re improved, but Daniels’ rushing upside is basically a cheat code. If you have him, you start him. Don't "wait and see."
But then there's the Raiders. They took Ashton Jeanty sixth overall. Pete Carroll is the coach now—yeah, that still feels weird to say. Carroll loves a workhorse. Jeanty is going up against New England in Week 1. The Patriots are disciplined, but they aren't the dynasty they used to be. I expect Jeanty to get 18+ carries easily.
Why You Might Want to Sit These "Stars"
- James Cook (RB, Bills): As mentioned, the Ravens are a brick wall. The model projections are fading him for a reason. He averaged 65 scrimmage yards against them last year.
- Alvin Kamara (RB, Saints): He's facing a Cardinals team that is actually favored by 6.5 points. If the Saints fall behind, they might move to a more pass-heavy approach with Spencer Rattler or whoever is under center this week.
- Rachaad White (RB, Buccaneers): The Falcons defense is legit this year. Plus, Bucky Irving is breathing down his neck. Week 1 could be a "hot hand" situation.
The Injury Minefield
Injuries have already gutted some rosters before the first whistle.
Christian McCaffrey is "questionable." We’ve heard this story before. If you own CMC, you’re starting him if he’s active, obviously. But you better have Jordan Mason or someone ready for that late-afternoon window against Seattle.
The 49ers' wide receiver room is a mess too. Brandon Aiyuk is on the PUP list. Deebo Samuel is in Washington. This leaves the door wide open for Ricky Pearsall. If you took a flyer on Pearsall in the double-digit rounds, Week 1 is your time to shine. He’s basically the WR1 by default in Kyle Shanahan’s system right now.
Over in Kansas City, Xavier Worthy is trying to play through a dislocated shoulder with a brace. That sounds like a disaster for a speed-based receiver. I’m fading Worthy and looking at "Hollywood" Brown or even Travis Kelce to see a massive target share. Kelce might be "old," but Mahomes trusts him more than anyone when the chips are down.
Sleepers That Actually Make Sense
Don't just chase points from last year. Look at the matchups.
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Trevor Lawrence is the QB8 in most models for Week 1. Why? Because he’s playing the Panthers. Carolina gave up the most points in the league last year. Lawrence has Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter now. That is an absurd amount of talent. If the Jaguars don’t put up 30 points in this game, something is seriously wrong.
In Denver, Bo Nix is actually a viable Superflex play. Sean Payton loves him. They’re playing Tennessee at home. Mile High air, a rookie QB with a chip on his shoulder, and a Titans secondary that is still gelling? It’s a recipe for a surprising fantasy output.
Also, keep an eye on Jonnu Smith in Miami. With De'Von Achane dealing with a calf injury, Mike McDaniel might use Smith in some creative ways to move the chains against the Colts.
Managing the Waiver Wire Early
Most people wait until Tuesday to look at the waiver wire. That's a mistake.
If you have an open roster spot because of an IR placement (like MarMarshawn Lloyd or Tyjae Spears), grab a high-upside backup now. Guys like Jacory Croskey-Merritt in Washington or Braelon Allen with the Jets.
If Breece Hall or Jayden Daniels gets a tweak in the first quarter, these "nobodies" become the most expensive players on the wire by Tuesday morning. Get them for free now.
Strategy for the Sunday Slate
The 1:00 PM ET window is massive this week. Nine games.
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My advice? Don't overreact to the first quarter.
The Bengals always start slow. They’ve lost four of their last five openers. If Joe Burrow looks rusty against the Browns, don't panic. It's Cleveland. They have a great pass rush. It’s a divisional game on the road. Just take the points and move on.
What to Watch for in the Afternoon
The Texans-Rams game at 4:25 PM ET is the one to watch for pure fireworks. C.J. Stroud vs. Matthew Stafford.
If you have Nico Collins or Stefon Diggs, you’re eating. But don't sleep on the Rams' side. Davante Adams is a Ram now—another sentence that still feels like a fever dream. He’s going to be Stafford's favorite target immediately. That game has a high over/under for a reason.
Actionable Steps for Your Lineup
Before the Thursday night kickoff, do these three things:
- Check your Flex: Move your Thursday and Friday players into their specific RB/WR/TE slots. Never, ever put a Thursday player in your Flex. You need that flexibility for the Sunday injury reports.
- Verify the Kicker/DST: Don't just auto-start the Cowboys' defense because they were good last year. They’re playing the Eagles in Philly. Look for a streamer like the Jaguars or even the Broncos at home.
- Confirm Late-Game Replacements: If you have players in the Monday night Vikings-Bears game, make sure you have a backup plan on your bench from that same game. If Justin Jefferson is a surprise scratch, you'll need Jordan Addison or Rome Odunze ready to go.
NFL fantasy week 1 is a marathon, not a sprint. One bad week doesn't end your season, but one smart move on the waiver wire or a bold start/sit call can give you the momentum to run the table. Stick to the volume and the matchups, and ignore the training camp hype videos.
Good luck. It's going to be a wild ride.