Honestly, playoff football is just different. You can spend all week staring at spreadsheets, tracking EPA per play, and charting weather patterns at Soldier Field, but when the Divisional Round hits, things usually go sideways in the weirdest ways possible. Today, January 18, 2026, we’ve got a double-header that feels like a collision between the "old guard" and the "new era."
Most folks looking for nfl expert picks today are gravitating toward the favorites because, well, that’s the safe bet, right? But if you’ve been watching the 2025-26 season closely, you know "safe" isn't really a thing anymore. We have a rookie quarterback in New England trying to out-duel a stone-cold killer in C.J. Stroud, and then we've got the "Great Freeze" in Chicago where Caleb Williams is basically playing for his life against a Rams offense that is currently scoring points like they're playing Madden on rookie mode.
Texans vs. Patriots: The Battle of the Blue-Chip QBs
This 3:00 PM ET kickoff at Gillette Stadium is fascinating. You’ve got the Patriots as 3.5-point favorites, which makes sense on paper. Drake Maye has been a revelation, and the Pats defense under Mike Vrabel has been top-tier. But here’s what the "experts" are kinda missing: the Houston Texans haven't lost a single game this year when they score at least 20 points. Not one.
The Patriots' defense allows about 18.8 points per game, which is elite. But if C.J. Stroud finds a way to crack that 20-point shell, history says Houston walks away with their first AFC Championship appearance in franchise history. It’s a classic "unstoppable force vs. immovable object" scenario. Brooke Cersosimo over at NFL.com is actually leaning toward the Texans for this exact reason—that Houston defense, led by Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, is nightmare fuel for a young QB like Maye.
Anderson and Hunter have combined for nearly 180 pressures this season. That’s a lot of heat for a kid still learning how to navigate a playoff pocket.
Why the Under is Tempting
The total for this game is sitting around 40.5. That is incredibly low for a modern NFL game. Most of the sharp money is actually looking at the Under. Why? Because both teams have top-10 defenses and the weather in Foxborough in mid-January is rarely "offensive-friendly."
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- Houston’s defense is #1 in total yardage allowed.
- New England is #4 in points allowed.
- The Patriots have a massive question mark at cornerback with Christian Gonzalez in concussion protocol.
If Gonzalez can't go, Stroud might actually have a field day even with Nico Collins being out. It’s a messy game to pick, but the value seems to be on Houston plus the points.
Rams vs. Bears: Cold Front vs. Hot Offense
Later tonight at 6:30 PM ET, the scene shifts to Chicago. It is going to be freezing. The Bears are 3.5-point home underdogs against Matthew Stafford and the Rams, which feels slightly disrespectful to a Chicago team that has been dominant at home (6-2 this year).
The Rams are currently the best scoring offense in the league, averaging 30.5 points per game. Stafford looks like he’s 25 again, and Kyren Williams is a touchdown machine. But—and this is a big "but"—the Rams' defense has been leaking oil lately. They gave up 31 points to a struggling Panthers team in the Wild Card round. If Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson (the Bears' offensive mastermind) can exploit that secondary, we might see the highest-scoring playoff game since the 2009 shootout between the Cards and Packers.
The Caleb Williams Factor
People forget how good Caleb has been at home. He’s leading the 4th-best rushing offense in the league. In a game where the temperature is expected to drop into the teens, being able to run the ball is everything.
- The Trend: Home underdogs in the playoffs are 13-3 against the spread since 2016.
- The Payout: If you’re feeling gutsy, the Bears moneyline is sitting at +170.
- The Prediction: Most "experts" are taking the Rams to win but the Bears to cover.
Matthew Stafford is 8-1 to the "Over" in road games this year. Even in the Chicago cold, the Rams' pace of play is so fast that it forces the other team to score. Expect a lot of points, even if the players' breath is visible on every snap.
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NFL Expert Picks Today: What the Data Actually Says
If you look at the betting splits for today, the public is all over the Rams and the Patriots. Usually, when the public is that unified, the "house" wins.
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Expert Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texans @ Patriots | NE -3.5 | 40.5 | Split (Slight edge to NE) |
| Rams @ Bears | LAR -3.5 | 48.5 | Rams SU, Bears ATS |
The system matches for today are actually leaning toward the home dogs. VSiN’s analytics show that #1 and #2 seeds playing as small favorites (under 7 points) actually have a pretty rough track record in the Divisional Round, going 4-12-1 against the spread recently. That bodes well for Chicago, even if they're the lower seed in this specific matchup.
Honestly, the best bet for the Rams-Bears game might not even be the spread. Look at the anytime touchdown scorers. Kyren Williams and Caleb Williams are both high-value plays given how much these teams rely on them in the red zone. Ben Johnson isn't afraid to let Caleb use his legs when the field shrinks.
Common Misconceptions About Today's Games
One thing people get wrong is thinking that "rest" is always a good thing. The Broncos and Seahawks had the bye last week, but the teams playing today—the Rams, Texans, and Bears—all have the momentum of a Wild Card win (or the late-season surge that got them here).
New England hasn't played a team with a defense as nasty as Houston's all year. Their strength of schedule was actually one of the weakest in the league. So, while 14-3 looks great on a graphic, the Patriots are finally playing someone who can punch back.
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Key Injury Updates to Watch
- Christian Gonzalez (CB, Patriots): Concussion protocol. If he’s out, the Pats' secondary loses its anchor.
- Nico Collins (WR, Texans): Out. Stroud will have to rely on Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz.
- Harold Landry III (LB, Patriots): Questionable. His absence would severely hamper the Pats' pass rush.
Actionable Strategy for Today's Slate
If you're looking to make a move on these games, don't just follow the names. Stafford and Stroud are the "star" names, but the winning plays usually happen in the trenches.
Start by checking the final injury report for Christian Gonzalez about 90 minutes before kickoff. If he is inactive, the Texans +3.5 becomes one of the strongest nfl expert picks today. For the late game, keep an eye on the wind speeds at Soldier Field. If the wind stays under 15 mph, the Over 48.5 is very much in play despite the cold. If the wind kicks up, pivot to the Bears rushing yardage props.
Take the points with the home dogs in Chicago and keep a close eye on the defensive battle in Foxborough. Sometimes the best pick is the one that acknowledges how weird and unpredictable January football really is.
Go check the live lines on your preferred sportsbook now, as these numbers are likely to shift as we get closer to the 3:00 PM kickoff.