The hype is basically deafening. If you’ve spent five minutes on sports Twitter lately, you’ve seen the clips. Arch Manning flicking a 50-yard dime. Fernando Mendoza dicing up a secondary. It feels like every year we say "this is the year of the quarterback," but the nfl draft qb rankings for 2026 are actually weirdly complicated.
Honestly, it’s a bit of a mess.
We’re looking at a class that has legitimate superstar potential at the top, but the floor is kind of terrifying for some of these guys. You have blue-blood names like Manning, transfer portal enigmas like Nico Iamaleava, and a sudden rise from Indiana's Fernando Mendoza that basically nobody saw coming two years ago.
Why Arch Manning Still Tops the NFL Draft QB Rankings
Look, the name gets him in the door, but the tape is why he’s staying at the top.
Manning isn't just a legacy act. Standing 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds, he looks like he was grown in a lab specifically to play for the Los Angeles Rams or someone like that. He’s got that "Manning Brain" for pre-snap reads—which scouts love—but he’s actually more mobile than his uncles.
During his time at Texas, he’s shown he can escape a collapsing pocket. He isn't Lamar Jackson, obviously, but he’s "plus-level" as an athlete.
The Real Numbers on Arch
Last season, Manning put up 2,942 yards and 24 touchdowns. He only threw seven picks. That’s a roughly 3.4-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the SEC. That matters. People love to point out that he struggled early against Ohio State, but look at the Arkansas game: 389 yards and four touchdowns.
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The downside? He hasn't started as many games as your typical top-five pick. Some scouts call his 2025 season "erratic." He trusts his arm too much sometimes, trying to fit the ball into windows that aren't actually windows. It's more like a mail slot.
The Fernando Mendoza Phenomenon
If you told a draft expert in 2023 that an Indiana quarterback would be pushing for QB1 in 2026, they would have laughed at you.
Yet, here we are.
Fernando Mendoza is the guy everyone is comparing to Jared Goff. He’s 6-foot-5, 225 pounds, and plays with a "gunslinger" mentality that makes him a Google Discover darling. He finished 2025 with 32 touchdowns and only five interceptions.
Think about that. Five picks in 12 games while playing in the Big Ten.
He’s incredibly accurate when he’s in rhythm. The ball comes off his hand with a "snappy" motion that scouts adore. But—and there's always a but—he can get jittery. If a defensive coordinator brings the heat, Mendoza’s lower-body mechanics sometimes fall apart. He becomes a different player when he’s seeing ghosts.
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The Nico Iamaleava Dilemma: Talent vs. Chaos
Nico Iamaleava is probably the most polarizing name in the nfl draft qb rankings.
He’s a 6-foot-6 freak of nature. He can run. He can throw a laser from one hash to the opposite sideline. He was the number one recruit in the nation for a reason. But the move from Tennessee to UCLA was... messy.
NIL drama, a fractured relationship with the Vols, and a rough debut at UCLA have people worried.
What the Tape Says
- Arm Strength: Elite. He tied for second in the SEC for 50+ yard completions (six) before he left.
- Athleticism: He’s a legitimate dual-threat.
- The Red Flag: 45% completion rate against Ohio State.
- The "Parent" Factor: Scouts are reportedly worried about his inner circle being a bit too "involved."
Basically, if a team like the Pittsburgh Steelers takes a swing on him in the second round, they’re betting on the physical ceiling. They’re betting they can fix the accuracy issues and the footwork. If they're right, he's a Pro Bowler. If they're wrong, he's out of the league in three years.
Comparing the "Pro-Ready" Guys: Beck vs. Allar
Then you have the guys who feel "safe." Or at least, safer.
Carson Beck (Miami) and Drew Allar (Penn State) are the veterans of this group. Beck is 6-foot-4 and has been through the wars. He transferred from Georgia and found a second life with the Hurricanes, putting up 10 wins and keeping them in the playoff hunt. He’s very "pro-style"—he can play under center, he understands zone layering, and he doesn’t panic.
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Allar is a bit more of a project despite his experience. He’s huge (6-foot-5, 235 pounds) and climbs the pocket like a pro. But his accuracy comes and goes. One play he looks like Josh Allen, the next he’s missing a simple check-down.
The Deep Sleepers to Watch
Don’t ignore the Group of Five guys or the sudden risers.
Ty Simpson at Alabama finally got his chance and he’s been a revelation. He’s 6-foot-2, mobile, and threw for over 3,000 yards in 2025. He’s still raw, but the "Bama pedigree" carries weight.
And then there's LaNorris Sellers at South Carolina. He’s basically a tank. 6-foot-3, 240 pounds, and runs like a linebacker. He’s very raw—his field vision is a work in progress—but his ceiling might be higher than anyone's except maybe Manning or Iamaleava.
Actionable Insights for Draft Fans
If you're trying to figure out which way your team will lean in the 2026 draft, look at their offensive scheme first.
- If your team runs a West Coast offense: They’re looking at Fernando Mendoza or Carson Beck. These guys thrive on timing and rhythm.
- If your team needs a playmaker to save a bad O-line: They’ll be targeting LaNorris Sellers or Arch Manning. You need that mobility to survive.
- The "High Risk, High Reward" play: That’s Nico Iamaleava. A team with an established starter (like the Rams or Jets) might take him to sit for a year.
Keep an eye on the Senior Bowl and the Combine. For guys like Allar and Mendoza, the "measurables" will be fine, but the interviews will be everything. Teams want to know if these guys can lead a locker room when things get ugly.
The 2026 class isn't a "sure thing" like 2024 was with Caleb Williams. It’s a gamble. But for the teams that get it right, the payoff is a franchise cornerstone for the next decade.
Start watching the Big Ten and SEC tape now. The gap between QB1 and QB5 is razor-thin, and one bad bowl game or a poor Combine showing could shift these nfl draft qb rankings entirely before the first name is called on draft night.