Let's be real for a second. If you’re a fan of a team like the Raiders or the Giants and you were hoping for a 2024-style quarterback bonanza in the upcoming draft, you might want to look away. The NFL draft QB ranking for the 2026 cycle is... well, it's complicated. Honestly, it’s a bit of a mess. Last year, we were all talking about "tanking for Shadeur" or looking at Carson Beck as a locked-in top pick. Now? Beck is at Miami, and the "locks" have mostly vanished.
Scouts are literally using the word "overhyped." One NFC scout recently told Fox Sports he was "glad my team doesn't need one," which is basically the scouting equivalent of a one-star Yelp review. But the NFL is a league of desperation. Teams will take these guys. They always do.
The 2026 class doesn't have a Caleb Williams or a Trevor Lawrence. What it has is a lot of "traits." It has guys who look like NFL players but haven't quite played like them yet. It's a year where the Heisman winner, Fernando Mendoza, might be the only true "safe" bet in the first round.
The Top Tier: Fernando Mendoza and the "Maybe" Guys
If you’re looking for the current QB1 on every reputable NFL draft QB ranking, it's Fernando Mendoza. The Indiana (by way of Cal) signal-caller has had a meteoric rise. He’s 6'5", 225 pounds, and just won the Heisman after leading the Hoosiers to a No. 1 ranking. He threw 41 touchdowns to just 6 picks. That’s absurd.
He’s the Jared Goff of this class.
Actually, scouts say he's Goff but with better legs. He’s the most polished, the best processor, and the most "pro-ready." But even with Mendoza, there's a catch. He almost never takes snaps under center. In the Big Ten Championship against Ohio State? Zero. In the NFL, that’s a transition that can break a young player.
The Dante Moore Dilemma
Then there’s Dante Moore. Or, there was Dante Moore. He was widely considered the highest-ceiling player in the class. Then, just days ago, he dropped a bomb: he’s staying at Oregon.
That move completely shattered the top of the NFL draft QB ranking boards. Without Moore, the "elite" tier is basically Mendoza and a giant shrug.
Ty Simpson: The Alabama Wildcard
Ty Simpson is the guy scouts are currently fighting over. He has that "elastic" arm—the kind where the ball just jumps off his hand without much effort. He was incredible in the middle of the season. Then he hit a wall. Four interceptions in his last four games? That’s going to come up in every draft room.
He’s a first-year starter. He’s raw. He’s athletic but not a "runner." Basically, he’s a projection. If you draft him in the top 10, you’re betting on what he could be in 2028, not what he is today.
💡 You might also like: What Time Club America Plays Today: Watching the Eagles Fly
Why Nobody is Talking About the Arch Manning Elephant
We have to talk about Arch. Every NFL draft QB ranking article you’ve read for three years has mentioned his name. Here’s the reality: he’s almost certainly not coming out.
The Manning family doesn’t do "early."
Word is he’s heading back to Texas for 2026. But—and this is a big "but"—if he changed his mind before the Jan. 14 deadline, he would be the No. 1 overall pick. Runaway. Scouts don't care that his 2025 season was "erratic" (61% completion rate isn't exactly elite). They care that he’s 6'4", 220 pounds, and has the most valuable DNA in football history.
"Don't underestimate the power of the Manning name," one AFC exec said. "Some franchise would be thrilled to dive into that gene pool."
But for the sake of your mock drafts, assume he's staying in Austin. Without him, the first round looks thin.
🔗 Read more: How to see Champions League live without the usual streaming headaches
The Risky Middle: Boom, Bust, and "Please No"
Once you get past the top three or four names, the NFL draft QB ranking gets scary. We’re talking about players who have elite traits but major "red flag" tape.
- LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina): He’s 6'3", 240 pounds, and runs like a linebacker. He also took 42 sacks this year. Forty-two! He struggles to read zone coverage, and his internal clock seems to be set to "panic" mode. He’s the definition of a developmental project.
- Carson Beck (Miami): Remember when he was the preseason QB1? Now he’s a Day 2 prospect. The talent is there, but he became a turnover machine as his career progressed. He’s polished, but can he handle a "muddy" pocket? Scouts are skeptical.
- John Mateer (Oklahoma): He’s the Baker Mayfield of the group. Under-sized, chip on his shoulder, gunslinger mentality. He had a thumb injury that tanked his November, which makes his evaluation even harder.
Ranking the 2026 NFL Draft QB Class (As of Today)
This isn't a "best college player" list. This is about who NFL GMs will actually turn a card in for.
- Fernando Mendoza (Indiana): The only true "Blue Chip" prospect left if Moore stays in school. Prototypical size.
- Ty Simpson (Alabama): High-variance. The arm talent is top-five worthy; the consistency is third-round worthy.
- Carson Beck (Miami): He’ll slide because of the "bust" fear, but someone will take him in the late 1st or early 2nd because of his frame.
- Drew Allar (Penn State): He’s 6'5" and 235 pounds. That alone keeps him in the top 50, even if his accuracy is... well, let's call it "adventurous."
- Garrett Nussmeier (LSU): The son of a coach. He knows the game, but he’s smaller (6'1") and doesn't have the "wow" arm you want in a top pick.
What Actually Matters for Your Team
If your team needs a quarterback, the 2026 NFL draft QB ranking tells a clear story: it’s a bad year to be desperate.
Mendoza is the only guy who looks like he could start Week 1 and not get his head handed to him. Everyone else on this list—Simpson, Sellers, Allar—needs a "redshirt" year. They need to sit behind a Kirk Cousins or a Matthew Stafford and learn how to actually read a pro defense.
Actionable Takeaways for the Draft Cycle:
- Watch the Under-Center Reps: During the Senior Bowl and Pro Days, pay attention to which QBs can actually take a snap from center. Most of the top 2026 prospects are "Shotgun only" guys right now.
- The "Moore Effect": If Dante Moore really does stay at Oregon, expect a massive "reach" on Day 1. Teams that need a QB will be forced to take Ty Simpson or Drew Allar much higher than they probably should.
- The Trade Market: Because this class is seen as "weak" compared to 2024, expect the veteran trade market to be wild. Teams might rather trade a first-round pick for a proven starter than gamble on the 2026 rookies.
Keep an eye on the medicals for John Mateer and the "declaration" decisions for the younger underclassmen. This list is going to shift ten more times before April. If you're building a mock draft today, keep it in pencil. Especially the QBs.