The NFL season is a brutal, 18-week marathon that leaves half the league celebrating and the other half staring at a draft board. If you're a fan of the Las Vegas Raiders or the New York Jets, you’ve probably been looking at draft boards since November. Honestly, that's just the reality of the modern NFL. One minute you’re hoping for a Wild Card spot, and the next you’re debating the hand size of a quarterback from Indiana.
With the 2026 regular season in the rearview and the playoffs currently carving out the final slots, the NFL draft order projections are finally moving from "guesswork" to "cold, hard reality." We know who owns the top of the board. We know which GMs are sweating through their suits. And we know that the 2026 class, while lacking the "generational" hype of previous years, is weirdly deep in places that usually don't get much love.
The Raiders Are on the Clock (Finally)
It’s official. The Las Vegas Raiders have clinched the No. 1 overall pick. After a 3-14 season that saw the Pete Carroll era end before it even really started, the Silver and Black find themselves in a position they haven’t occupied since the JaMarcus Russell days in 2007. That’s a scary thought for Raiders fans, but the context is different this time.
The Raiders won the "strength of schedule" tiebreaker over three other 3-14 teams. Basically, their schedule was the weakest, which means their three wins were theoretically harder to come by. Or, more accurately, it means they were the worst of the worst.
Most people are pointing directly at Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza for this slot. He’s been the riser of the season. If you haven’t watched Indiana football lately—which, let's be fair, most haven't until this year—Mendoza is the reason they made that massive Big Ten run. He’s 6'5", he’s got the arm, and most importantly, he doesn't turn the ball over like Geno Smith did this past year in Vegas.
The Top 10 Is a Defensive Coordinator’s Dream
Usually, the top of the draft is a carousel of quarterbacks and flashy wide receivers. 2026 feels... different. It’s heavy on the "big boys" and the guys who hit them.
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- Las Vegas Raiders (3-14): QB Fernando Mendoza is the favorite.
- New York Jets (3-14): They’re looking at Arvell Reese, the linebacker out of Ohio State. He’s a freak of nature.
- Arizona Cardinals (3-14): This is where it gets interesting. Jeremiyah Love, the Notre Dame RB, is the best player on the board. But do you take an RB at No. 3? In 2026? It’s a gamble.
- Tennessee Titans (3-14): They need to protect Cam Ward, but Keldric Faulk (EDGE, Auburn) might be too good to pass up.
- New York Giants (4-13): After beating Dallas in Week 18, they "fell" to No. 5. They’re likely looking at Caleb Downs, the safety from Ohio State.
The New York Jets are actually the big winners of the trade market this year. Thanks to some savvy (or desperate, depending on who you ask) mid-season trades involving Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, they hold the No. 2 and No. 16 picks. Having two picks in the top 20 is a dream scenario for a team that needs a total defensive overhaul and potentially a new signal-caller if they don't trust their current room.
Why the 2026 NFL Draft Order Projections Keep Shifting
Draft order isn't just about losing games. It’s about the "math" behind the losing. The NFL uses a specific set of tiebreakers to determine who picks where when records are identical.
The first tiebreaker is always strength of schedule (SOS). This is a bit counter-intuitive: the team with the lower SOS (the easier schedule) gets the higher pick. The logic is that if you played a bunch of bad teams and still only won three games, you must be worse than the team that won three games against a gauntlet of Super Bowl contenders.
After SOS, it goes into divisional and conference tiebreakers, and eventually, if things are truly tied, a coin toss. We haven't seen a coin toss for a major pick in a while, but with four teams finishing 3-14 this year, the math was razor-thin.
Who Is Actually Worth a Top Pick?
Let's talk prospects. The NFL draft order projections are only as good as the players available.
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Arvell Reese (LB, Ohio State) He’s the guy everyone is talking about. At 6'4" and 243 pounds, he moves like a safety but hits like a truck. NFL Spin Zone recently mocked him to the Jets at No. 2, and it makes perfect sense. The Jets need an identity, and Reese is a "day one" captain type.
Jeremiyah Love (RB, Notre Dame) Running backs have been devalued lately, but Love might break that trend. He’s the RB1 in this class by a mile. He’s got that rare "home run" speed but can also pass-protect. If Arizona takes him at No. 3, the "don't draft RBs early" crowd will lose their minds, but the Cardinals need playmakers, period.
The Quarterback Problem
Beyond Mendoza, the QB class is thin. Dante Moore decided to head back to Oregon for another year, which sent shockwaves through the league. Suddenly, teams that were banking on a 2026 QB—like the Saints or the Giants—are looking at Ty Simpson from Alabama or maybe even reaching for a "sleeper" like Fernando Mendoza’s backup if they’re desperate.
Teams With Multiple First-Rounders
Draft day in Pittsburgh (April 23-25, 2026) is going to be dominated by four specific teams. If you’re a fan of these squads, you’ve got twice the reason to tune in.
- Cleveland Browns: They hold their own pick (No. 6) and the Jacksonville Jaguars' pick (No. 24). The Jags traded up last year for Travis Hunter, and now Cleveland is reaping the rewards.
- New York Jets: Picks No. 2 and No. 16. This is their chance to fix the roster once and for all.
- Dallas Cowboys: They have No. 12 and No. 20 (via Green Bay). Trading Micah Parsons was a "nuclear option" move, but getting Quinnen Williams and an extra first-rounder gives them flexibility.
- Los Angeles Rams: They’re sitting pretty with No. 13 (via Atlanta) and their own pick, which will be at the end of the first round because they're... well, the Rams.
The Rams' situation is classic Les Snead. They haven't had a first-round pick in forever, and now they have two? It feels like they're cheating. They’ll likely look for a Matthew Stafford successor or more defensive line help.
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What Most People Get Wrong About Draft Projections
People think the draft order is settled once the regular season ends. It’s not.
Sure, the first 18 picks are "locked," but the trade market hasn't even opened yet. In 2026, we’re seeing a lot of rumors about teams like the Dallas Cowboys or even the Kansas City Chiefs (who surprisingly have a top-10 pick at No. 9 after a weirdly down year) trading down.
The Chiefs picking at No. 9 is a glitch in the matrix. Most analysts, including those at PFF, suggest they need to get "beefier" on the interior. Peter Woods from Clemson is a name that keeps coming up. Imagine Chris Jones paired with a top-10 talent at DT. That’s how dynasties stay alive.
The Actionable Insight: How to Track This Like a Pro
If you want to stay ahead of the curve, don't just look at mock drafts. Look at the Combine and the Senior Bowl.
The Senior Bowl rosters for 2026 are already leaking, and it’s heavy on offensive linemen. If your team is in the middle of the pack—think Minnesota at No. 18 or Miami at No. 11—that’s where the value is. The 2026 class is "elite" at tackle and guard.
Next steps for the hardcore fan:
- Watch the Divisional Round: The draft order for picks 25-28 will be decided this weekend.
- Track the Underclassmen: Keep an eye on guys like Arch Manning. Even if they aren't coming out this year, their decisions to stay in school affect how teams value the current 2026 pool.
- Monitor the Coaching Carousel: The Raiders and Browns are both in the middle of head coaching searches. A new coach usually means a new draft philosophy. If the Raiders hire a defensive-minded coach, does Mendoza still go No. 1? Maybe not.
The road to Pittsburgh is just starting. Get your spreadsheets ready.