The regular season is over, and honestly, the landscape of the league looks like a disaster zone for about a dozen fanbases. If you're looking at the NFL draft order now, you'll see the Las Vegas Raiders sitting right at the top. They officially clinched the No. 1 overall pick after a chaotic Week 18 that saw the New York Giants accidentally win their way out of the top spot.
It’s weird. The Raiders actually beat the Chiefs to close out their season—a win that usually feels great—but because their strength of schedule was so low (.538), they stayed locked into that first pick anyway. They finished 3-14, tied with three other teams, but they win the "tiebreaker" of being the most consistently struggling squad. For Vegas, this is the first time they’ve held the keys to the draft since 2007. We all remember how the JaMarcus Russell era went, so the pressure on GM Tom Telesco to actually hit on this pick is basically suffocating.
The Top 10 Is Officially Locked
Wild Card Weekend is in the rearview mirror, which means the top 18 picks are set in stone. The teams currently in the divisional round are still playing for their "spot," but for the bottom feeders, the scouting reports are already hitting the printers.
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1. Las Vegas Raiders (3-14)
They need a quarterback. Badly. With Fernando Mendoza from Indiana looking like the consensus top guy, it’s hard to imagine them going anywhere else. Mendoza just put up a Heisman season and his 91.6 PFF grade makes him the safest bet in a class that just got thinner.
2. New York Jets (3-14)
The Jets are in a fascinating spot. They have the second pick, but they also own the Colts' first-rounder at No. 16 because of the Gardner trade. They could go for a receiver like Carnell Tate from Ohio State, especially with Dante Moore deciding to stay at Oregon for another year.
3. Arizona Cardinals (3-14)
Kyler Murray’s future is the only thing people are talking about in Phoenix. If the Jets pass on a QB, the Cardinals might pounce. If not, they likely look at Francis Mauigoa to protect whoever is under center.
4. Tennessee Titans (3-14)
General Manager Mike Borgonzi has a mess on his hands. The defense was bottom-tier all year. They need a playmaker on the edge or a lockdown corner to help out Cam Ward, their pick from last year.
5. New York Giants (4-13)
Giants fans are probably still fuming about that Week 18 win over Dallas. It felt good in the moment, sure, but it cost them a shot at the top three. Now they’re at five, likely looking at a top-tier wideout or offensive tackle.
6. Cleveland Browns (5-12)
7. Washington Commanders (5-12)
8. New Orleans Saints (6-11)
9. Kansas City Chiefs (6-11)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (6-11)
Seeing the Chiefs at No. 9 is jarring. It was a "down" year by their standards, and now they’re in a position to actually add blue-chip talent around Mahomes. If Jeremiyah Love, the Notre Dame back, is there at nine, that offense becomes terrifying again.
How the Playoff Results Change Everything
The NFL draft order now isn't just about who lost the most in November; it’s about who just got bounced from the postseason. The six teams that lost in the Wild Card round are now slotted into picks 19 through 24.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are sitting at No. 21 after their exit. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Browns—who own the Jaguars' pick from the Travis Hunter trade last year—are actually picking at No. 24 as well as No. 6. That is a massive haul for a team that desperately needs to restock the cupboards.
The order for the remaining eight teams—Chicago, Buffalo, San Francisco, Houston, the Rams, New England, Denver, and Seattle—won't be determined until they actually lose. If the Denver Broncos or Seattle Seahawks (both 14-3) win the Super Bowl, they’ll take the 32nd spot.
One thing to watch? The Los Angeles Rams. They own the Falcons' pick at No. 13 and their own late-round pick. They are primed to be the aggressors in this draft, potentially packaging those to move up if a blue-chip defender starts to slide.
Trade Tracker: Who Owns Which Pick?
Draft season is usually when we realize just how many future picks were traded away in "all-in" moves.
- The Jets own the Colts' pick (No. 16): This came from the Gardner deal.
- The Rams own the Falcons' pick (No. 13): Result of a 2025 draft-day trade for James Pearce Jr.
- The Cowboys own the Packers' pick (No. 20): Part of the massive Micah Parsons blockbuster.
- The Browns own the Jaguars' pick (No. 24): Jacksonville moved up for Travis Hunter last year and is now paying the price in draft capital.
The Dante Moore Effect
We have to talk about Oregon. Dante Moore staying in school for the 2026 season changed the entire math of the first round. Before his announcement, it was widely assumed he’d be a top-three lock. Now? Teams like the Jets and Cardinals are looking at a much thinner QB pool. This makes Fernando Mendoza (Indiana) and potentially Trinidad Chambliss (Ole Miss) much more valuable. If you're a team in the 10-15 range and you need a signal-caller, you're suddenly looking at a very expensive trade-up scenario.
Key Dates to Circle
The draft itself is heading to Pittsburgh this year, running from April 23 to April 25. But the order we see today will likely look different by then.
The next big milestone is January 23—the deadline for underclassmen to declare. We already know Moore is out, but there are still a handful of SEC defensive linemen who haven't made their minds up. If a guy like Rueben Bain Jr. from Miami decides to jump, he could easily crash the top five and push everyone else down.
Actionable Steps for Draft Fans
If you want to stay ahead of the curve as the divisional round wraps up, keep these factors in mind:
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- Watch the Rams vs. Texans game: This isn't just a playoff matchup; it’s a battle for draft position. The loser will likely slot into the 25-28 range.
- Monitor the Senior Bowl: With the QB class thinning out, the Senior Bowl (starting in early February) will be the make-or-break moment for second-tier guys like Shedeur Sanders or whoever emerges as the "next" riser.
- Track the Strength of Schedule (SOS): For teams still tied with the same record, SOS remains the primary tiebreaker. The team that played the "easier" schedule picks earlier.
The draft order is a living document until the final whistle of the Super Bowl. Right now, the Raiders have the pole position, but the real drama starts when the phones start ringing in the picks 2 through 10 range.
Check the updated standings after Sunday’s games to see where the Divisional losers land.