He is the guy with the hair. You know the one. For over four decades, Mel Kiper Jr. has been the face of the NFL Draft, standing at a podium or sitting behind a desk, telling us why a kid from a school you’ve never heard of is actually the next Hall of Fame linebacker.
Kiper basically invented the draft industry. Before he showed up in 1984, the NFL Draft was a quiet, back-office affair held in hotel ballrooms. Nobody cared. Now? It is a three-day prime-time spectacle.
But here is the thing: people love to hate on him. Every year, social media lights up with receipts of his "bust" predictions. Honestly, it’s a bit unfair. Predicting the future of 22-year-olds is a messy business, yet Kiper remains the gold standard for a reason.
The 2026 NFL Draft Mel Kiper Big Board Shakes Up
As we hit January 2026, the draft landscape is shifting under our feet. Kiper just dropped his updated Big Board, and it’s causing the usual stir in front offices from New York to New Orleans.
The biggest shocker? Oregon quarterback Dante Moore decided to stay in school. Kiper had him at No. 2 overall just a week ago. Moore's decision to return to the Ducks for the 2027 cycle has completely vacuum-sealed the top of the 2026 class.
Suddenly, Indiana's Fernando Mendoza is the man to watch.
Kiper has Mendoza at No. 1 right now. It’s a wild rise for a guy who was at Cal and then exploded after transferring to the Hoosiers. Mel loves the way Mendoza handles pressure—specifically how he cut his sack total from 41 in 2024 to just 22 this past season. He’s getting the ball out fast.
"The ball placement is fantastic," Kiper noted in his latest breakdown. He isn't calling him a dual-threat, but he sees a "pro-style" operator who can actually move.
Then there is the running back situation. Mel is high on Jeremiyah Love from Notre Dame. He’s comparing him to Reggie Bush. Think about that for a second. Bush was one of the most electric players to ever touch a football. Love has 60 forced missed tackles this year. If Mel is right about this one, whoever drafts Love at No. 2 or No. 3 is getting a franchise-altering weapon.
Why We Still Listen to Him
Look, we’ve all heard the Bill Tobin quote from 1994: "Who the hell is Mel Kiper?"
Tobin, then the Colts GM, was furious that Kiper criticized his picks. It was the moment that proved Kiper wasn't just a cheerleader for the league; he was an analyst with a bite. That bite is why he’s still on our screens 42 years later.
He watches 20 to 25 college games every single week. That is a staggering amount of tape. While most fans are watching the highlights on TikTok, Kiper is grinding through the All-22 film of a right tackle at Miami like Francis Mauigoa.
Speaking of Mauigoa, Mel has him as a top-five lock. He calls him a "true mauler." He’s the kind of player that makes NFL scouts salivate because he can play tackle or slide inside to guard.
The Quarterback Conundrum
Quarterbacks are always the headline, and the 2026 class is... well, it's complicated.
With Moore out of the picture, the spotlight is harsh on guys like Ty Simpson from Alabama. Kiper is being cautious here. He’s worried about the "15 starts" rule. Historically, quarterbacks who enter the NFL with fewer than 20 collegiate starts struggle significantly.
Mel is sticking to his guns on that. He isn't just looking at the arm talent; he’s looking at the experience.
Then you have Carson Beck at Miami. Kiper sees him as a "career backup" type. That’s a tough pill for Hurricanes fans to swallow, but Mel points to the 23 interceptions over the last two seasons as the red flag. He’s projecting Beck as a late Day 2 or early Day 3 pick. It’s that kind of nuance that separates Kiper from the "hype train" YouTubers.
The Hits and the Massive Misses
To understand the NFL Draft Mel Kiper phenomenon, you have to acknowledge the misses. They are legendary.
- Jimmy Clausen: Mel famously said if Clausen wasn't a successful NFL QB, he'd retire. Clausen went 1-13 as a starter. Mel is still here.
- Mike Williams: He once predicted the USC receiver would be a Hall of Famer. Williams was out of the league faster than you can say "bust."
- Ryan Leaf: He thought Leaf’s attitude would be an "asset." It was... not.
But he also called Peyton Manning over Ryan Leaf when many were split. He was all over Josh Allen when the "stats" people thought Allen would never be accurate enough for the pros.
Kiper’s value isn't in being 100% right. Nobody is. His value is in the process. He sets the baseline for the entire conversation. When he puts Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese at No. 3, the whole league stops to re-watch Reese’s tape.
Reese is a "complete football player" in Kiper's eyes. He’s got the burst to rush the passer but the instincts to play the run like a 10-year veteran.
What the 2026 Class Looks Like Now
If you’re following the 2026 NFL Draft Mel Kiper rankings, here is the current vibe of the top ten:
- Fernando Mendoza (QB, Indiana): The new QB1. Precise, smart, climbing fast.
- Jeremiyah Love (RB, Notre Dame): The Reggie Bush 2.0. High-impact pass catcher.
- Arvell Reese (LB, Ohio State): A defensive coordinator's dream. Natural instincts.
- Francis Mauigoa (OT, Miami): A physical bully on the line.
- David Bailey (EDGE, Texas Tech): The sack master. 14.5 sacks this year alone.
- Caleb Downs (S, Ohio State): Basically a coach on the field. Incredible IQ.
- Carnell Tate (WR, Ohio State): Precise route runner, averages 17.5 yards per catch.
- Kenyon Sadiq (TE, Oregon): A physical freak who can hurdle defenders.
- Jordyn Tyson (WR, Arizona State): Uncoverable in the red zone.
- Makai Lemon (WR, USC): The Biletnikoff winner. Speed for days.
It is a heavy defense-and-line class. If your team needs a franchise savior under center, this isn't the year—unless you believe in Mendoza like Mel does.
Real Advice for Draft Season
Watching the draft through the Kiper lens requires a bit of a filter. He is an evaluator of talent, not necessarily a predictor of success. A player can have all the traits Mel loves and still end up on a team with a terrible coaching staff that ruins them.
When you're looking at his Big Board, don't just look at the ranking. Read his notes on "scheme versatility."
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Take Keldric Faulk from Auburn. Mel has him at No. 15. He calls him an "LTP"—a guy who "looks the part." Faulk might not have the flashy sack numbers (only 2 in 2025), but his power and ability to shed blocks make him a Day 1 starter in a 4-3 defense.
What You Should Do Next
If you want to stay ahead of the curve, stop looking at mock drafts for a second. Focus on the Big Board. Mock drafts are guesses about what GMs will do. The Big Board is about how good these players actually are.
Keep an eye on the Senior Bowl and the Combine. Kiper always adjusts his rankings after the "underwear Olympics" in Indianapolis. If a guy like Jermod McCoy—the Tennessee corner who missed 2025 with an injury—shows up and runs a 4.40, Mel will move him into the top ten instantly.
The draft isn't a science. It’s an educated guess. And even after 40 years, Mel Kiper Jr. is still the guy giving us the best starting point for that guess.
Next Steps for Draft Fans:
- Track the Underclassmen: Now that the Jan 15 deadline has passed, verify which of your favorite college stars actually signed the paperwork.
- Watch the Trenches: Pay attention to Mauigoa and Bailey. In a "weak" QB year, the guys who protect and hunt the QB become twice as valuable.
- Ignore the Mock Draft 1.0: It's too early for team-specific picks. Stick to the talent evaluations until after free agency shakes out the NFL rosters in March.