If you were looking for a high-flying shootout at Gillette Stadium today, you probably walked away a little confused—or maybe just impressed by a defense that refused to break. The NFL Divisional Round usually delivers some drama, but today felt like a masterclass in "ugly" winning.
Honestly, it wasn't the prettiest game Drake Maye has ever played. But the history books don't care about aesthetics. They care about who is getting on a plane to Denver next week.
The Patriots Defense Just Smothered Houston
Let’s get the big headline out of the way first. The New England Patriots are moving on to the AFC Championship Game after a 28-16 win over the Houston Texans.
If you just looked at the box score, you’d think the Patriots dominated. In a way, they did. But it was weird. Drake Maye fumbled the ball four times. Four times! You usually don't win a playoff game when your quarterback treats the football like a hot potato. He also tossed a pick on a Hail Mary right before halftime.
So, how did they win? The defense.
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The New England secondary turned C.J. Stroud into a turnover machine today. They intercepted him four times. Carlton Davis was basically playing receiver for the wrong team, snagging two of those picks himself. Christian Gonzalez forced a fumble that the Pats jumped on. It was like every time Houston gained an inch of momentum, the New England defense just reached out and snatched it back.
The Texans actually made it a game late in the third. Ka'imi Fairbairn knocked through a field goal to bring Houston within five points, making it 21-16. For a second there, the Gillette Stadium crowd got real quiet. But a late touchdown and a final stand on a desperation fourth down by the Texans sealed it.
Who Won Tonight’s Football Game: The Rams-Bears Battle
While the Patriots were busy celebrating, the focus shifted to the "Monsters of the Midway" hosting the Los Angeles Rams. In a clash of styles that felt very much like old-school January football, the Los Angeles Rams defeated the Chicago Bears 17-10.
Soldier Field was loud. It was cold. But the Rams' experience showed up when it mattered.
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The Bears kept it tight, relying on their own defensive grit, but they just couldn't find the end zone often enough. Chicago’s offense looked stalled for long stretches of the second half. It’s tough. You have a young team that has clearly turned a corner, but in the Divisional Round, the margin for error is basically zero.
What This Means for the Bracket
The dust is finally settling on the Divisional Round, and the path to Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara is getting narrow.
Next Sunday, the New England Patriots have to go to Empower Field at Mile High to face the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship. Denver is coming off a wild 33-30 overtime win against the Buffalo Bills from Saturday, so they’ve had an extra day to soak their feet.
Over in the NFC, the Seattle Seahawks are waiting. After they absolutely dismantled the 49ers 41-6 yesterday (seriously, Kenneth Walker III tied a record with three rushing touchdowns), they look like the scariest team left in the tournament. They will host the Los Angeles Rams next Sunday at Lumen Field.
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Surprising Stats You Might Have Missed
Football is a game of weird outliers. Here are a few things that actually happened today that shouldn't have made sense:
- The Turnover Gap: The Patriots won despite five total turnovers (four fumbles by Maye and one INT). Teams that turn the ball over five times in the playoffs almost never win. They were saved by Houston's five turnovers. It was a 5-5 turnover wash.
- The Ground Game: New England's TreVeyon Henderson was a quiet hero. While everyone talked about the quarterbacks, his ability to grind out yards kept the clock moving when the Patriots were clinging to that slim lead.
- The Third Down Wall: Houston went 4-for-13 on third downs. You can't beat a Bill Belichick... wait, sorry, a Mike Vrabel-led defense (it’s easy to slip up there) by failing on third down that often.
Real Talk: Can New England Actually Win in Denver?
Let's be real for a second. If the Patriots show up in Denver and fumble the ball four times, they are going to get blown out. The Broncos defense is significantly more opportunistic than Houston’s.
New England is the veteran squad here, but they are playing with fire. They need Drake Maye to protect the ball, period. If he plays clean, their defense is good enough to win a title. If he doesn't, next Sunday will be a long afternoon in the thin air of Colorado.
What You Should Do Next
If you’re a bettor or just a hardcore fan trying to prep for next weekend, keep an eye on the injury reports for both the Rams and the Patriots tomorrow. Specifically, check on New England's Carlton Davis. He left the game late with a head injury, and losing your best ball-hawk before facing Denver would be a massive blow.
Also, take a look at the weather forecast for Seattle next Sunday. The Seahawks are undefeated at home this postseason, and the "12th Man" factor at Lumen Field is a very real thing for a Rams team that relies heavily on offensive rhythm.
Plan your Sunday accordingly—the AFC Championship kicks off at 3:05 PM ET on CBS, followed by the NFC battle at 6:40 PM ET on FOX.