The Divisional Round is arguably the best weekend of the entire NFL season. Honestly, it's the sweet spot where the pretenders from Wild Card weekend have been weeded out, but you still have four high-stakes games to watch. By the time Sunday night rolls around, we’ll know exactly who is one step away from the Super Bowl.
But if you’re looking at the nfl divisional round odds, things look a little different this year. We've got massive spreads, freezing weather in the Midwest, and a few "home underdogs" that make you want to double-check your screen.
The Big Matchups and Movement
Let’s look at the board. We already saw the Saturday action play out with the Broncos and Seahawks holding court, but Sunday is where the real drama is brewing.
The Patriots are currently sitting as 3.5-point favorites over the Texans. That line actually jumped. Earlier in the week, New England was only favored by 3, but the news that Texans star receiver Nico Collins is officially out with a concussion sent the money toward the Pats. It’s a huge blow for Houston. You've got C.J. Stroud heading into Foxborough without his primary weapon against a Mike Vrabel defense that is notoriously stingy.
Then you have the nightcap: Rams at Bears.
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This one is weird. The Bears are the 2-seed. They are playing at Soldier Field. Yet, they are 4.5-point home underdogs against the Rams. Why? Vegas clearly values Matthew Stafford’s playoff experience and the Rams' high-powered offense more than Chicago’s home-field advantage. The over/under is sitting at 48.5, which is the highest of the weekend. That’s wild when you consider the forecast is calling for single-digit temperatures and double-digit winds in Chicago.
Decoding the NFL Divisional Round Odds
If you're new to this, seeing a minus sign like -4.5 next to the Rams means they have to win by 5 or more for a bet on them to "cover." If you take the Bears at +4.5, they can lose by 4 or even win the game outright, and you still win.
Moneyline odds are simpler but pricier. The Rams are -200, meaning you’d have to bet $200 just to win $100. On the flip side, the Bears are +170. A $100 bet on Chicago nets you $170 in profit if they pull off the upset.
Historically, home teams in this round are about 46-18 straight up since 2009, but they are barely .500 against the spread. Basically, favorites win, but they don't always cover.
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Why Rest Matters (Or Doesn't)
The Patriots and Texans matchup is a classic "rest vs. rust" scenario. New England had the week off. Houston is coming off a short week after playing on Monday.
Usually, you’d think the rested team dominates. However, the Patriots are actually 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games when they have a rest advantage. It’s one of those weird statistical anomalies that makes bettors pull their hair out.
Key Betting Trends to Watch
Trends aren't destiny, but they sure help paint a picture.
- The Saturday vs. Sunday Split: Over the last 16 seasons, home teams have been dominant on Saturdays. Sundays? Not so much. Road teams are actually 26-13-1 against the spread on Sundays since 2006. That bodes well for the Rams and Texans.
- The Underdog Surge: Home underdogs in the playoffs are on a 13-3 run against the spread since 2016. If you believe in the Bears, that +4.5 looks a lot more attractive.
- The "31-Point" Rule: Teams that score more than 31 points in their Wild Card win usually cover in the Divisional Round. This year, that only applies to the Rams and Bears... but they’re playing each other. Something’s gotta give.
What to Watch for in the Trenches
The Texans' defense has been a "ballhawking" unit all year. Guys like Derek Stingley Jr. and Jalen Pitre have been turnover magnets. If they can confuse Drake Maye and force a couple of mistakes, that 3.5-point spread will vanish quickly.
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In Chicago, it’s all about the Rams' defense without Quentin Lake. They struggled down the stretch, ranking 17th in EPA per play over the final month of the season. If the Bears can run the ball effectively in the cold, they might just control the clock and keep Stafford off the field.
Practical Steps for This Weekend
If you're looking to act on these nfl divisional round odds, keep these steps in mind:
- Monitor the Weather: In the Rams-Bears game, wind is the enemy of the passing game. If the gusts get above 20 mph, that 48.5 total might stay well "Under."
- Watch the Injury Report: We know Nico Collins is out, but keep an eye on Patriots corner Christian Gonzalez. If he’s out with his concussion, Stroud might still find ways to move the ball even without Collins.
- Shop for the Hook: A "hook" is that extra .5 on a spread. If you can find the Bears at +4 instead of +3.5, or the Texans at +4, take it. That half-point is the difference between a push and a win more often than you'd think.
- Live Betting: Playoff games are emotional. If a favorite like the Patriots goes down 7-0 early, the live line might flip to New England -1 or even a pick 'em. That's often a better value than the pre-game line.
The Divisional Round is where legends are made and brackets are broken. Whether you're siding with the veteran QBs or the home-field underdogs, the margins have never been thinner.