Winning the NFL Defensive Player of the Year award used to be simple. You just had to hit the quarterback more than anyone else. If you racked up 18 sacks and played for a winning team, the trophy was basically yours to lose. But something shifted recently.
Last year, Patrick Surtain II didn't just win; he broke the "pass rusher bias." Honestly, it was about time. Seeing a cornerback take the hardware over guys like T.J. Watt or Myles Garrett felt like a glitch in the Matrix for some fans, but if you actually watched the Denver Broncos' tape, it made total sense. He essentially erased half the field.
The Evolution of the DPOY Narrative
Voters are getting smarter. Or maybe they're just getting tired of the same old stats. For a decade, the award was basically a rotating door for Aaron Donald, J.J. Watt, and the occasional edge rusher who caught fire.
The 2024 season changed the conversation. Surtain won because he allowed only 306 yards all season. That’s insane. You’ve got receivers like Ja'Marr Chase and Travis Kelce getting shut down, and suddenly a sack doesn't look quite as shiny as it used to.
Now, as we look at the 2025 landscape, the pendulum is swinging back toward the trenches, but with a vengeance. Myles Garrett didn't just have a "good" year; he broke the single-season sack record in the final week of the 2025 season. He finished with 23 sacks.
When someone breaks a Michael Strahan record, you can't really look the other way. Even though the Browns weren't a juggernaut, Garrett’s individual dominance was so overwhelming that the betting odds hit a staggering -50000 by January. Basically, if you wanted to win four cents, you had to bet twenty dollars. Not exactly a high-yield investment.
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Why Stats Often Lie
We love to talk about sacks. They’re loud. They’re easy to put on a highlight reel. But if you talk to coaches, they’ll tell you that "pressures" and "win rates" matter more.
- Myles Garrett won because he didn't just get sacks; he won his matchups at a rate that didn't even seem fair.
- Will Anderson Jr. has become the new gold standard for "the motor." He doesn't stop. He's the heartbeat of that Texans defense that finished 2025 as the best unit in the league.
- Nik Bonitto emerged as a legitimate dark horse this year, proving that the Broncos' defensive system under Vance Joseph is a factory for DPOY candidates.
It's kinda wild how much the "team success" factor matters too. You rarely see a guy on a four-win team take this home. Usually, the winner is the best player on a top-five defense. That’s why the Texans having both Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter at the top of the stat sheets makes it so hard for voters to pick just one. They split the vote.
The Cornerback Conundrum
After Surtain won, everyone thought the floodgates would open for defensive backs. Nope.
It’s just too hard to sustain that level of perfection. In 2025, Devon Witherspoon from the Seahawks was arguably the best corner in the game. He’s PFF’s darling. But when Garrett is out there putting quarterbacks in the dirt 23 times, a "shutdown" corner starts to feel like a luxury rather than a necessity in the eyes of the Associated Press.
And then there's the Micah Parsons factor. Micah is the most gifted athlete on the field 90% of the time. But the narrative around the Cowboys is always so noisy. He gets double-teamed more than anyone, which helps his teammates, but hurts his individual stat line.
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"It's not just about the numbers you put up, it's about the numbers you take away from the other team." — This is the mantra that almost won it for Aidan Hutchinson before his injury setbacks.
Historical Heavyweights and the Three-Timer Club
If Garrett wins this year, he joins the most exclusive club in football. Only three men have won NFL Defensive Player of the Year three times:
- Lawrence Taylor: The man who literally changed how offensive tackles play.
- J.J. Watt: Who had a four-year stretch that might be the best in the history of the sport.
- Aaron Donald: A defensive tackle who played like a 280-pound ballerina.
Garrett is sitting on two. If the 2025 voting goes the way the odds suggest, he’s moving into the GOAT conversation. That’s the level we’re talking about.
What to Watch for Next
If you’re trying to predict who wins this award in the future, stop looking at total tackles. They don’t matter. Nobody wins DPOY for tackling a guy five yards downfield.
Look for Turnover Differential and Sack-to-Pressure Ratios.
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The modern voter is obsessed with "impact plays." A forced fumble that leads to a touchdown is worth more than ten solo tackles. Also, keep an eye on the "He's Due" narrative. T.J. Watt has been a finalist so many times that voters occasionally suffer from "Watt Fatigue." It’s unfair, but it’s real.
The biggest misconception is that the best player always wins. Honestly? The player with the best story usually wins. In 2024, the story was "The Cornerback Who Can't Be Caught." In 2025, the story is "The Record Breaker."
To truly understand the race, you have to watch the Week 14-18 window. That's when the "Heisman moments" happen for defensive players. A strip-sack to clinch a playoff berth in December is worth more than five sacks in September.
Keep your eyes on the Texans' front four and the Seahawks' secondary as the playoffs roll on. The 2025 season might be wrapped up for Garrett, but the blueprint for 2026 is already being written by guys like Will Anderson Jr. and Jared Verse.
Actionable Insights for Following the Award:
- Track Pass Rush Win Rate: Sites like ESPN Analytics and PFF provide this. It’s a better predictor of late-season surges than raw sack totals.
- Watch the Betting Lines in November: The "favorite" usually emerges around Thanksgiving. If a player’s odds jump from +1200 to +300 in one week, pay attention to the film from that Sunday.
- Ignore Tackle Leaders: Middle linebackers rarely win this anymore unless they are also picking off 5+ passes (think Ray Lewis or Luke Kuechly).
- Focus on Primetime: DPOY is often won in Sunday Night or Monday Night games where the whole country sees a single player dominate a Pro Bowl offensive tackle.