The divisional round of the NFL playoffs is where things get weird. Honestly, it’s the best weekend on the sports calendar, but for anyone looking at the nfl betting odds this week, it’s a total minefield. We’ve moved past the Wild Card blowouts and into the territory where every single point spread feels like a personal insult to one fan base or another.
Take a look at Denver. The Broncos are the No. 1 seed in the AFC, resting at home with a defense that basically spends four quarters eating offensive lines for lunch. And yet? The market opened with the Buffalo Bills as 1.5-point road favorites. Yeah, you read that right. The 7-seed was actually favored over the 1-seed at Empower Field at Mile High.
Lines have shifted toward Denver since then—most books now have the Broncos as a slim 1.5-point favorite—but the disrespect is baked in. People are obsessed with Josh Allen. They see his 25-4 postseason TD-to-INT ratio and they don't care about the altitude or the fact that Buffalo's defense is currently held together by athletic tape and prayer.
Breaking Down the Big Spreads and Underdogs
If the Denver game is a coin flip, the NFC West rubber match between the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks is a heavyweight bout in a thunderstorm. Seattle is sitting as a 7-point favorite. That feels high, right? Seven points in a divisional rivalry game where the teams are meeting for the third time this season?
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Seattle won the last one in Week 18 to clinch home field, but the 49ers just grinded out a win in Philly that proved they aren't dead yet. The betting public is split. You've got the "Seattle is unstoppable" crowd pointing at Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s insane yardage totals, and then you've got the "Kyle Shanahan is a wizard" crowd who thinks 7 points is a gift.
- The Oblique Factor: Sam Darnold is officially "questionable" with an oblique injury. If he can't rotate his torso, that 7-point spread is going to evaporate faster than a beer at Lumen Field.
- The Home Field Myth: Everyone talks about the "12s" in Seattle, but San Francisco has won big playoff games on the road before.
- The Total: At 45.5, the Under is looking tempting given the familiarity between these two defenses.
Then we head to Foxborough. The New England Patriots are 3-point favorites against the Houston Texans. It’s the Drake Maye era, and he’s playing like a guy who doesn't realize he's supposed to be a "rookie" in over his head. But the Texans are dangerous. C.J. Stroud has this weird ability to look completely flustered for three quarters and then go 9-for-9 with two touchdowns in the fourth.
The nfl betting odds this week suggest a low-scoring slugfest here. The total is sitting at a measly 40.5. That tells you everything you need to know about what the Vegas sharps think of these defenses.
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Why the Weather in Chicago Changes Everything
Sunday night at Soldier Field is going to be miserable. If you’re betting the Los Angeles Rams at -3.5 or -4.5 against the Chicago Bears, you need to check the weather app. We are looking at temperatures between 10°F and 16°F with wind chills hitting -8°F.
The Rams are a dome team. Matthew Stafford is a veteran who can sling it in a hurricane, but his receivers? Puka Nacua and a returning Davante Adams are going to be trying to catch a frozen brick. Chicago’s defense thrives in this garbage.
The Bears' moneyline at +164 is screaming at people right now. They were down big against Green Bay last week and put up 25 points in the fourth quarter to survive. That kind of "team of destiny" energy usually means the spread is irrelevant. You either think the Rams' superior talent overcomes the frostbite, or you think the Bears' defense turns this into a 13-10 rock fight.
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Expert Strategies for Your Slip
Don't just chase the favorites because they had a bye week. Since 2020, home favorites in the divisional round have been notoriously shaky against the spread. The "rest vs. rust" debate is real.
- Watch the Broncos' Health: If their pass rush is full strength, Josh Allen is going to have to run for 100 yards just to keep the Bills in it. The 45.5 total feels a bit high if Vance Joseph’s unit gets home.
- Trust the Texans' Points: Getting 3 points with a quarterback like Stroud is rarely a bad idea. New England might win, but a field-goal game feels like the most likely outcome.
- Tease the Totals: In playoff football, games tend to tighten up. Teasing the Under in the Seattle/SF game up to 51 or 52 provides a massive cushion for a game that will likely be won in the trenches.
The nfl betting odds this week are designed to make you second-guess yourself. The Bills being a "road favorite" earlier in the week was a massive red flag that the books aren't sold on Denver's offense. Meanwhile, the Rams being favored in a frozen Chicago suggests the oddsmakers think Sean McVay's scheme is weather-proof.
Keep an eye on the injury reports for Sam Darnold and Christian Gonzalez in New England. Those two names alone could move these lines by two full points before kickoff.
Next Steps for Your Weekend:
Check the final inactive lists 90 minutes before the Bills-Broncos kickoff. If Denver’s secondary is missing starters, the Buffalo moneyline becomes the play. For the Sunday night game, wait as long as possible to see if the wind projections at Soldier Field increase; if gusts hit 20+ mph, hammer the Under 48.5 immediately.