Wild Card weekend just ended and honestly, if you had the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots as the top two seeds on your 2025-26 bingo card, you're probably lying. Or you're a time traveler. The NFL AFC playoff picture has been completely flipped on its head this year. No Patrick Mahomes. No Lamar Jackson. No Joe Burrow.
It feels weird.
For the first time in what feels like a decade, the "old guard" of elite quarterbacks is watching the divisional round from their couches. We are staring at a bracket where Bo Nix and Drake Maye are the guys to beat. The landscape has shifted so fast it’s giving most fans whiplash. If you're trying to figure out how we got here and who actually has the inside track to Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara, you’ve gotta look at the wreckage left behind after a chaotic opening round.
The AFC Playoff Picture: Who is Actually Left?
The dust has settled on the Wild Card round, and the field has been trimmed from seven down to the final four.
- Denver Broncos (14-3): They earned the first-round bye and have been resting up in the thin air of Mile High.
- New England Patriots (14-3): Mike Vrabel’s squad absolutely dismantled the Chargers 16-3. It wasn't pretty, but it was effective.
- Houston Texans (12-5): They just went into Pittsburgh and embarrassed the Steelers 30-6 on Monday night.
- Buffalo Bills (12-5): In the most "Buffalo" game ever, they eked out a 27-24 win over the Jaguars in the Florida humidity.
It’s a bizarre mix of elite defenses and young, surging quarterbacks. Most people expected the Jags or the Steelers to make a deeper run because of their veteran presence, but the AFC has become a young man's game overnight.
The Broncos and the "One-Score" Magic
Denver is the No. 1 seed, but they are perhaps the most debated top seed in recent history. They went 11-2 in one-score games this season. That is statistically insane. Usually, that kind of luck—or "clutch gene," depending on who you ask—regresses to the mean.
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Sean Payton has basically turned Bo Nix into a point guard. He isn't asked to throw for 400 yards; he’s asked to not kill the team. With a defense that ranks in the top five for points allowed, it's worked. But now they face a Buffalo team that doesn't care about your defensive rankings.
Why the Patriots Look Like the Real Favorites
New England is back. It hurts to say for the rest of the AFC East, but it’s true. Drake Maye has stabilized an offense that was a disaster for three years, but the real story is that defense.
They held Justin Herbert and the Chargers to a measly three points in the Wild Card round. Three! In the modern NFL, that's basically a shutout.
The Patriots play the "bully ball" style that traditionally wins in January. They’re hosting the Texans this Sunday, and while C.J. Stroud is a magician, he’s going into a Foxborough stadium that is finally loud again. Most experts, like those over at CBS Sports, are pointing to this New England defense as the unit most likely to carry a team to the Super Bowl. They don't beat themselves. They don't commit dumb penalties. They just wait for you to mess up, and then they pounce.
The Texans and the "Nothing to Lose" Factor
Houston is the dangerous floater. Nobody expected them to blow the doors off Pittsburgh at Acrisure Stadium. 30-6 is a statement.
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DeMeco Ryans has that team playing with a terrifying amount of speed. They are the No. 5 seed, but they play like they’re the team to beat. If the Texans can get past the Patriots’ pass rush, they have the weapons to actually win the whole conference. Nico Collins and Tank Dell are healthy at the right time. That matters more than seedings.
The Bills' Fatal Flaw
We have to talk about Buffalo's run defense. It’s bad. Like, "25th in the league" bad.
Against the Jaguars, they gave up over 150 yards on the ground. The only reason they won is because Josh Allen did Josh Allen things in the fourth quarter. He's a human eraser; he erases the mistakes of his coaching staff and his teammates.
But you can't do that forever. If the Bills head into Denver and let the Broncos run the ball 40 times, they’re going home. Sean McDermott has tried to hide this by playing more defensive backs and "daring" teams to run, but in the playoffs, teams will gladly take 5 yards a carry all day long.
Key Divisional Round Matchups
- Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos: Saturday, Jan 17 at 4:30 PM ET (CBS).
- Houston Texans at New England Patriots: Sunday, Jan 18 at 3:00 PM ET (ABC/ESPN).
The Bills-Broncos game is a total clash of styles. You have the ultimate "X-Factor" in Josh Allen vs. the ultimate "System" in Sean Payton’s Broncos. On the other side, Texans-Patriots is a battle of the two best young rosters in the AFC.
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What Most People Get Wrong About This Year's Bracket
The biggest misconception is that the AFC is "weak" because the big names are gone. It’s not weak; it’s balanced.
In years past, you knew the path went through Kansas City. This year, any of these four teams could realistically win. There isn't a "juggernaut."
Actually, that makes the games better. You've got more unpredictability. The Chargers were favored by many to beat New England because of Justin Herbert’s arm, but they got bullied. The Jaguars were supposed to be the "hot" team, and they fell flat.
Strategies for Betting and Analysis
If you’re looking at the lines, keep an eye on the weather in Denver. It’s looking like it could be a classic January freeze.
- Watch the turnover margin: In the AFC so far this postseason, the team that wins the turnover battle is 3-0.
- Identify the "Middle 8": The last four minutes of the first half and the first four of the second. The Patriots won that stretch against the Chargers 10-0, and that was the game.
- Fade the "Rest vs. Rust" Narrative: The Broncos had a bye, but the Bills are battle-tested. Sometimes that momentum from a Wild Card win carries more weight than an extra week of practice.
The AFC title is wide open. We are one weekend away from knowing who represents the conference in the Super Bowl, and honestly, don't be surprised if the winner comes from the Texans-Patriots game. Those are the two most complete teams left on the board.
Next Steps for Fans:
- Check the final injury reports for the Bills' secondary before Saturday's kickoff; they are thin at safety.
- Monitor the Vegas line movement for Texans-Patriots; the spread has already narrowed since opening, suggesting sharp money is on Houston.
- Sync your calendars for the Saturday/Sunday split so you don't miss the start of the Bills-Broncos game, which has an earlier-than-usual afternoon slot.