The NFL draft landscape just got hit by a freight train, and honestly, it’s all because of Oregon. For months, everyone assumed the top of the board was a two-horse race between Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Oregon’s Dante Moore Jr. Then, Moore dropped a bombshell: he's staying in school for 2026. This isn't just some minor ripple in the scouting community. It's a seismic shift that leaves teams like the New York Jets and New York Giants staring at a board that suddenly looks very different.
Basically, if you aren't holding the number one pick owned by the Las Vegas Raiders, you’re playing a high-stakes game of musical chairs.
The First Round: Mendoza and the Defensive Pivot
The Las Vegas Raiders are in the catbird seat. Fernando Mendoza just finished a legendary season at Indiana, leading the Hoosiers to a 15-0 record and a National Championship appearance. He threw more touchdowns than incompletions in the playoff. Let that sink in. He’s the undisputed QB1. But after him? The drop-off is steep, and it's forcing a lot of "best player available" strategies earlier than usual.
Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
Heisman winner. 41 touchdowns. 6 interceptions. Mendoza is the most "pro-ready" signal-caller we've seen since Joe Burrow. Tom Telesco doesn't even have to think about this one.New York Jets: Rueben Bain Jr., EDGE, Miami
With Moore returning to Oregon, the Jets are in a tough spot. Do they reach for Ty Simpson or Brendan Sorsby? Probably not. Bain is a physical freak who lived in the backfield at Miami. He’s a "culture setter" for a defense that needs to get younger.Arizona Cardinals: Arvell Reese, LB/EDGE, Ohio State
Monti Ossenfort loves high-ceiling athletes. Reese is basically the closest thing we’ve seen to Micah Parsons. He’s 6'4", 243 pounds, and plays with a violence that’s hard to coach.Tennessee Titans: Keldric Faulk, EDGE, Auburn
The Titans need help on both lines. Faulk has that 6'6" frame that NFL scouts drool over. He’s got the mass to hold the edge and the twitch to get home on third downs.New York Giants: Caleb Downs, SAF, Ohio State
Is it high for a safety? Maybe. But Downs is the best pure football player in this class. He’s a "dream safety" who can erase tight ends or play as a sub-package linebacker. The Giants’ secondary was a sieve last year; Downs fixes a lot of those problems instantly.🔗 Read more: The Record of the Houston Texans: Why Nobody Expected This Turnaround
Why Teams are Scrambling for the Trenches
Because the quarterback class is top-heavy and thin, the value of offensive tackles and pass rushers has skyrocketed. Look at the Cleveland Browns at pick 6. They need a successor for Deshaun Watson, but with Mendoza gone, they likely turn to Francis Mauigoa from Miami. Mauigoa is a mountain of a man who started at right tackle as a true freshman. He’s exactly the kind of "building block" a struggling franchise needs.
Round 2: The Skill Position Run
The second round is where the "Tier 2" playmakers usually go, but in this 2026 class, we’re seeing some potential stars slide because of the early defensive run. Jeremiyah Love from Notre Dame is a name to watch here. He put up over 1,300 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns last year. In a league that is slowly valuing running backs again—look at what the Cowboys did last year with Javonte Williams—Love is a 4.3-speed weapon that won't last long.
Key Second-Round Projections
- Carolina Panthers: Denzel Boston, WR, Washington. They need to give Bryce Young (or whoever is under center) a massive catch radius. Boston is 6'4" and can high-point the ball like a veteran.
- Chicago Bears: Cashius Howell, EDGE, Texas A&M. Howell is a speed-to-power specialist who could thrive opposite Montez Sweat.
- Dallas Cowboys: Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU. The Cowboys always seem to be looking for secondary depth. Delane is sticky in man coverage and has the LSU "DBU" pedigree.
Honestly, the middle of the second round is where the draft gets weird. You’ve got teams like the Atlanta Falcons (via trade) looking at Zachariah Branch from Georgia. Branch is an Olympic-level athlete who can score every time he touches the ball. If he's there at pick 48, it's a steal.
Round 3: Finding the Gems and Special Teams Aces
By the third round, the "sure things" are gone. Now you’re looking for traits. One player I’m obsessed with in this range is Kenyon Sadiq, the tight end from Oregon. He caught 51 balls for 560 yards last season. In a 3 round mock draft, Sadiq is the type of player who could go to a team like the Philadelphia Eagles and immediately become a matchup nightmare in 12-personnel.
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The Trench Warfare Continues
Don't sleep on the interior offensive line in the third round. Olaivavega "Vega" Ioane from Penn State is a 330-pound guard who moves like a much smaller man. He’s the kind of player who helps a team win "at the point of attack," which is exactly what teams like the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings are looking for to solidify their run games.
Pittsburgh Steelers' Strategy:
With the draft being held in Pittsburgh this year, the pressure is on. They need a receiver to pair with George Pickens. Jordyn Tyson from Arizona State would be an incredible get if he slips, but more realistically, they might look at Chris Bell from Louisville in the third. Bell is a physical, 6'2" wideout who fits the "Steelers Way" of tough, contested-catch receivers.
What Most People Get Wrong About This Class
People see a "weak" quarterback class and assume it's a bad draft. That’s a mistake. This class is incredibly deep at cornerback and offensive tackle.
We’re seeing guys like Caleb Lomu (Utah) and Kadyn Proctor (Alabama) potentially available in the late first or early second. In most years, these are top-10 locks. The depth at defensive tackle is also sneaky good. Kayden McDonald from Ohio State is a 320-pound gap-filler who might not have the stats, but he makes everyone around him better.
Actionable Insights for Fans
If your team needs a quarterback and doesn't have the first overall pick, you should be rooting for a trade-down. The value in this 2026 class is in the "meat" of the draft—rounds two and three.
- Watch the Senior Bowl: This year, it’s going to be crucial for the Tier 2 quarterbacks like Ty Simpson and Brendan Sorsby to prove they belong in the first-round conversation.
- Monitor Free Agency: Teams like the Giants and Jets will reveal their draft plans by how they spend in March. If the Giants sign a veteran bridge QB, they’re almost certainly going defense at pick 5.
- Check the Medicals: Several top prospects, including Harold Perkins (LSU), are coming off injury-shortened seasons. Their Pro Day numbers will dictate if they stay in the first round or tumble.
This draft isn't about finding the next Patrick Mahomes; it's about finding the guys who stop him. With Dante Moore Jr. out of the picture, the "Year of the Defender" is officially here. Expect a lot of physical, trench-heavy football in the seasons to come.
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Keep an eye on the compensatory pick announcements in March. Those extra picks in the third round will be gold for teams looking to snag a starting guard or a rotational pass rusher in what is becoming a very "blue-collar" draft class.