Honestly, the Divisional Round is the best weekend of the year. Forget the Super Bowl for a second. That's a spectacle. This? This is pure football. Next weekend's NFL games—the Divisional Round—feature eight teams left standing, and if you think the favorites are just going to cakewalk into the title games, you haven't been watching this weird, wonderful 2025-26 season.
We just saw a Wild Card weekend where home-field advantage basically meant nothing for some and everything for others. Now, the heavy hitters enter the fray. The Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks have been resting, watching from their couches while everyone else battered each other.
Is the "bye week rust" real? Or is it just a myth we tell ourselves to make the games feel more competitive?
The AFC Grind: Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos
Saturday afternoon kicks off with a heavyweight bout at Empower Field at Mile High. The Buffalo Bills are coming off a nail-biter against the Jacksonville Jaguars, winning 27-24. Josh Allen looked like a human wrecking ball, but you’ve gotta wonder about the fatigue.
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They’re flying into Denver to face a Broncos team that finished 14-3.
Denver’s defense has been surgical. They allow just about 0.9 more points per game than the Texans' elite unit, but they do it with a terrifying consistency at home. Most people think Buffalo’s momentum carries them through. I’m not so sure. The altitude is one thing, but Denver's ground game is designed to kill the clock and keep Josh Allen standing on the sideline with a coat on.
Why Denver holds the edge
- Rest: The Broncos haven't played since the regular season finale.
- The Matchup: Buffalo has won six of the last eight against Denver, but this isn't the same Sean Payton-led squad from years ago. This version is disciplined.
- The Line: The spread is sitting at Broncos -1.5. That’s basically a toss-up.
NFC West War: San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Saturday night is going to be loud. Really loud. The 49ers just squeezed past the Eagles 23-19, but they lost more than just sweat in that game. Rumors are swirling about Fred Warner's availability, and without Nick Bosa, that pass rush looks... well, mortal.
They head to Lumen Field to face the top-seeded Seahawks.
Here is what most people get wrong about this game: they think Brock Purdy's "system QB" label matters here. It doesn't. What matters is the blitz. According to NFL Pro data, the Niners' offense is #1 in efficiency when not blitzed. When they are? They drop to 24th.
Seattle blitzes at the 8th-lowest rate in the league, but they are #1 in efficiency when they actually do it. If Mike Macdonald decides to get aggressive, Purdy is in for a long, long night.
Sam Darnold's Revenge?
It’s 2026 and we are talking about Sam Darnold as a legitimate playoff threat. Life is strange.
Darnold’s numbers without pressure this year are MVP-caliber: a 109.4 passer rating and 19 touchdowns. If San Francisco can't get home—and they only pressured Jalen Hurts on 16.2% of dropbacks last week—Darnold is going to pick them apart. Seattle is favored by 7 for a reason.
Sunday’s Tactical Chess Matches
Sunday morning starts with the Houston Texans traveling to Foxborough to face the New England Patriots. The Texans absolutely dismantled the Steelers 30-6. C.J. Stroud is playing like he’s 35 years old, not a young kid in his third season.
But the Patriots are different.
They just suffocated the Chargers, winning 16-3. It was ugly. It was boring. It was quintessential New England. They have the same 14-3 record as Denver but lost the tiebreaker for the #1 seed. Do not sleep on them.
Then we wrap up with the Los Angeles Rams at the Chicago Bears.
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Soldier Field in January. It’s supposed to be "Bears weather," but these aren't your grandfather’s Bears. They survived a 31-27 shootout with the Packers. Now they have to deal with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Chicago DC Dennis Allen said stopping those two requires an "exceptional effort." That might be the understatement of the century.
What the Experts are Missing
People love to talk about the "hot" team. The Texans look hot. The Rams look dangerous. But the Divisional Round usually rewards the teams that can win in the trenches when the temperature drops.
Watch the injury reports closely. The 49ers without Warner or Bosa are a completely different team. The Bills' offensive line depth is being tested. If you're looking for an upset, keep an eye on Houston. Stroud doesn't care about the "mystique" of Gillette Stadium.
Actionable Insights for Next Weekend's NFL Games
If you are planning your weekend or looking at the lines, here is the reality:
- Monitor the Seattle Blitz Rate: If early reports suggest a heavy pressure scheme, lean toward the Seahawks covering that 7-point spread.
- Denver’s Ground Attack: If the weather turns in Colorado, the Broncos' ability to run the ball vs. Buffalo's tired front seven is the game-winner.
- The Soldier Field Surface: The Rams rely on timing and speed. If the Chicago turf is a mess (as it often is in late January), it levels the playing field for the Bears' defense.
The Divisional Round isn't about who is the better team on paper; it's about who survives the specific tactical nightmare of their opponent. Saturday and Sunday will likely deliver at least one result that leaves the "experts" scratching their heads on Monday morning.
Ensure your Sunday is cleared by 3:00 p.m. ET for the Texans-Patriots kickoff, as that game likely decides who represents the AFC in the Super Bowl. Check local listings for the Saturday 4:30 p.m. ET start for Bills-Broncos to see if the altitude really is the 12th man for Denver.