If you've stepped outside in Los Angeles recently, you’ve probably noticed it. The air is dry, the Santa Anas have been kicking up dust, and the sky is that piercing, cloudless blue that makes you forget it’s actually mid-January. It feels more like June. After the chaos of the New Year’s Day atmospheric river that soaked the Rose Parade for the first time in two decades, the faucet has essentially stayed shut. Everyone is asking the same thing: when is the next rain in los angeles actually going to show up?
Honestly, the short-term news is pretty dry.
Right now, a massive ridge of high pressure is parked over the West Coast like a stubborn guest who won't leave the party. This "Omega Block" is shoving all the storm energy way up into the Pacific Northwest and Canada. According to the National Weather Service (NWS) in Oxnard, we are stuck in a cycle of offshore flow that’s keeping temperatures in the high 70s and low 80s through at least the middle of next week. You can basically leave your umbrella in the trunk for the next few days.
When the dry spell finally breaks
The computer models are starting to hint at a shift, but it’s not exactly a "monster storm" scenario.
Most of the long-range ensemble data—which is just a fancy way of saying a bunch of weather models averaged out—shows the ridge finally breaking down around Thursday, January 22, or Friday, January 23. The GFS (Global Forecast System) model has been flirting with a "legitimate upper low" dropping down from the north during that window. It’s not a classic tropical atmospheric river, but rather a colder, more "inside runner" type of system.
If this holds, we’re looking at:
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- A sharp temperature drop: Going from 80°F to the mid-60s in about 48 hours.
- Showery activity: Most models currently show a 30% to 55% chance of precipitation by the weekend of January 24–25.
- Light totals: We aren't talking inches; we’re talking about maybe a quarter-inch to a half-inch of rain for the basin.
Weather experts like Dr. Daniel Swain from Weather West have been tracking this "double whiplash" effect. We went from a record-breaking wet December to a bone-dry start to the second half of January. This is classic Southern California weather. It’s either a fire hose or a desert.
Why the "Next Rain in Los Angeles" is so hard to predict this year
You might have heard that we are in a La Niña year. Normally, that means a drier-than-average winter for Southern California. But as we saw in late December and on New Year’s Day, La Niña doesn't mean "no rain." It just means fewer chances for big storms.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) recently noted that this La Niña is actually quite weak. When the pattern is weak, the "subtropical jet stream"—the river of air that carries moisture—is more chaotic. It can wander. Sometimes it dips south and hits us when it’s "supposed" to stay north.
There’s also the issue of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Currently, the PDO is in a strongly negative phase. This setup often reinforces high pressure near the coast, which is exactly why it feels so hot and dry right now. It takes a very strong storm to punch through that wall of high pressure.
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What to expect for the rest of winter
Looking past the January 25 window, the outlook gets a bit murky.
The seasonal forecast for February and March still leans toward "below-normal" precipitation. That doesn't mean it won't rain at all. It just means that when we do get the next rain in los angeles, it likely won't be enough to match the historical averages for those months. We really rely on one or two big "miracle" storms in February to keep the hills green.
If you’re planning outdoor events, here’s the reality:
- January 15–20: High confidence of zero rain. Beach weather.
- January 21–23: Transition period. Increasing clouds and cooling.
- January 24–26: The first real window for light rain or "showers."
- February: Potential for a return to dry conditions, though models are split on a late-month storm cycle.
Actionable steps for the dry window
Since we have a week-long "dry gap," it’s actually a good time to prep. The New Year’s storm showed us that the ground is still quite saturated in certain areas, particularly in the Santa Monica mountains and the burn scars in Ventura County.
Keep your irrigation off. Even though it's 80 degrees, the soil still holds moisture from the holiday soak. Overwatering now just leads to root rot and wasted money. Check your gutters now, while it’s dry and easy to move around. When that next rain in los angeles eventually hits later this month, it’ll likely bring those "quick-hit" showers that can clog a messy drain in minutes.
Keep an eye on the "inside slider" systems. These are storms that move over land rather than water. They don't bring much rain, but they bring massive wind. If the January 23rd system trends drier, expect high wind warnings instead of flood watches.
Final takeaways on the January forecast
Don't let the 82-degree forecast for this Thursday fool you into thinking winter is over. Southern California winters are notorious for these fake-out "spring" weeks. The models are fairly consistent about a pattern change arriving after the 20th. It won't be a washout, but you'll definitely need a jacket again by next weekend.
Stay updated with the NWS Los Angeles Twitter feed or their "Area Forecast Discussion" page. That’s where the actual meteorologists post their internal notes about which models they trust and which ones are "trash" for the current week. Right now, they are leaning toward a "low-confidence, low-impact" rain event for the final week of the month.
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Checklist for the coming week:
- Check your wiper blades; the heat and sun usually dry out the rubber before the next storm.
- Monitor the "inside runner" storm track for Jan 23–25.
- Keep your emergency alerts active if you live near a recent burn scar.
- Adjust your sprinklers to account for the current heatwave, but be ready to shut them off by next Wednesday.