The Sistine Chapel is currently a giant question mark. Following the death of Pope Francis in April 2025, the Catholic world is staring at that famous chimney, waiting for white smoke and a name that will likely shock half the people watching.
Choosing the most likely to be next pope is basically the world's highest-stakes guessing game. You’ve got 130-ish cardinals locked in a room, no phones, no outside contact, just ancient rituals and a lot of prayer. Or politics. Honestly, it's usually both.
History has a funny way of humbling the "experts" here. There is an old Roman saying: "He who enters the conclave a pope, leaves a cardinal." Basically, if everyone thinks you're the frontrunner, you're probably doomed.
The Men Everyone Is Watching Right Now
If you look at the betting markets or the frantic whispering in Roman trattorias, a few names keep popping up. These are the papabili—the ones who look like popes-in-waiting.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin is the name you’ll hear most. He’s 70, Italian, and has been the Vatican Secretary of State for over a decade. He is the ultimate "safe pair of hands." If the cardinals want someone who knows how the machine works and won’t start any theological fires, he’s their guy. But some think he’s a bit too much like a civil servant. Is he a pastor or a diplomat? That’s the big question.
🔗 Read more: No Kings Day 2025: What Most People Get Wrong
Then there is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines. People call him the "Asian Francis." He’s got that same warm, smiling energy. He’s 67, which is young in "pope years," and he’s a rockstar in the Global South. If the Church wants to officially pivot its center of gravity toward Asia and Africa, Tagle is the obvious choice.
But it’s not just about personality.
The Conservative Pushback
After years of Francis’s focus on the environment and social peripheries, there’s a group of cardinals itching for a return to tradition. They want clear rules. They want Cardinal Péter Erdő from Hungary. He’s a brilliant canon lawyer. He’s 72. He’s seen as a unifying figure for those who think the Church has become too "loose" with its doctrine.
The "Wildcards" That Could Actually Win
While everyone argues about Parolin and Tagle, a few others are quietly gaining steam.
💡 You might also like: NIES: What Most People Get Wrong About the National Institute for Environmental Studies
- Matteo Zuppi (Italy): The Archbishop of Bologna. He’s known as a "street priest" who rides a bike around town. He’s also a heavy hitter in diplomacy, having helped broker peace in Mozambique. He’s very close to Francis’s vision but with a very Italian, approachable flavor.
- Peter Turkson (Ghana): He’s been a top contender for two conclaves now. At 77, he’s experienced, deeply knowledgeable about climate change, and would be the first African pope in over 1,500 years.
- Robert Francis Prevost (USA/Peru): Now this is a weird one. Usually, being American is a "kiss of death" because nobody wants a "Superpower Pope." But Prevost spent decades in Peru. He’s got the backing of the Chicago-born pragmatism mixed with Latin American missionary heart.
What the Cardinals Are Actually Looking For
It’s not just a popularity contest. These guys are looking for a specific vibe. They want someone who can manage the Vatican’s messy finances—which are always a headache—but also someone who can fill pews in Europe while keeping the massive growth in Africa going.
It's a tough job description. You have to be a CEO, a saint, a diplomat, and a father figure all at once.
Most people get it wrong because they think the conclave is like a political election. It’s not. There are no campaigns. There are no televised debates. There are just "General Congregations"—basically meetings where cardinals size each other up over coffee.
Does Age Matter?
Absolutely. If the cardinals are exhausted by change, they might pick an older "transitional" pope. Someone in their late 70s who will just keep the seat warm for five or six years. If they want a revolution, they go for a 60-year-old.
📖 Related: Middle East Ceasefire: What Everyone Is Actually Getting Wrong
The Mystery of the Holy Spirit (and Politics)
In 1978, no one expected Karol Wojtyła. In 2013, Jorge Bergoglio wasn't even on most Top 5 lists until the very end. The most likely to be next pope is often the person nobody is talking about on Day One of the conclave.
The real power often lies with the "Kingmakers." These are influential cardinals who know they won't win but can swing a block of 20 or 30 votes. Watch guys like Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich or Cardinal Timothy Radcliffe. Where they go, the votes follow.
What Happens Next?
The conclave isn't just a religious event; it’s a geopolitical earthquake. The next pope will inherit a Church deeply divided between progressives and traditionalists. He’ll have to deal with the ongoing fallout of the abuse crisis and a world that is increasingly secular.
If you’re trying to track this, don’t just look at the odds. Look at the "murmuratio"—the gossip. When a name starts getting attacked in the press right before the doors lock, it’s usually because that person is winning, and someone else is trying to sabotage them.
Next Steps for Following the Conclave:
- Watch the Daily Briefings: The Vatican Press Office gives updates (though they won't tell you the vote counts).
- Monitor "The Great Move": Look at which cardinals are being seen together in Rome right now.
- Wait for the Smoke: Once the cardinals enter the Sistine Chapel, all we have are the colors of the smoke. Black means "not yet," and white means "we have a Pope."
The reality is that until that senior cardinal stands on the balcony and says "Habemus Papam," everything is just a guess. But that's exactly why we can't stop watching.