When Pope Francis passed away in April 2025, it wasn't just a religious moment. It was a massive geopolitical shift. For over a decade, the world got used to the "pope of the peripheries"—a man who cared about climate change, migrants, and shaking up the old-school Vatican bureaucracy. Now, the big question is: who is actually going to step into those red shoes next?
Honestly, nobody knows for sure. That’s the thing about a conclave. There is an old Roman saying: "He who enters the conclave a pope, leaves it a cardinal." Basically, the favorites often crash and burn once the doors of the Sistine Chapel actually lock.
But we can look at the math. The college of cardinals has changed. Francis appointed the vast majority of the men who will vote, which means they’re likely looking for someone who won't just hit the "undo" button on everything he did. Still, there’s a quiet hunger for a bit of stability after years of rapid-fire reforms.
Who will be the next pope? The Frontrunners and "Dark Horses"
The term people use is papabile. It’s just Italian for "pope-able." Right now, the betting markets and the Vatican insiders are obsessed with a few specific names. They represent two very different directions for the Church.
Luis Antonio Tagle: The "Asian Francis"
If the cardinals want to double down on the current direction, Cardinal Tagle is the guy. He’s 67, which is "young" in Vatican years. He’s from the Philippines, a country where Catholicism isn't just a Sunday thing; it’s the air people breathe.
Tagle is famous for being incredibly humble. He’s been known to ride a bike to work and has a reputation for literally weeping with the poor. But don't let the soft exterior fool you. He’s been running the Church's massive missionary arm. He understands the global South—Asia and Africa—where the Church is actually growing. If he’s elected, he’d be the first Asian pope in the modern era.
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Pietro Parolin: The Steady Hand
On the other side, you have Cardinal Pietro Parolin. He’s 70 and Italian. For years, he’s been the Vatican’s Secretary of State, basically their Prime Minister and Chief Diplomat.
If the cardinals are tired of the "surprises" that often came with Francis, Parolin is the "safe" choice. He knows where all the bodies are buried in the Vatican bureaucracy. He’s a moderate. He’s not going to start a revolution, but he won't go back to the Middle Ages either. The big knock against him? He’s spent his whole life as a diplomat. Some cardinals want a "pastor"—someone who has actually run a parish and smelled like the sheep—rather than a guy who spends his life in meetings with world leaders.
The Rise of the African Cardinals
We can't talk about the next papacy without looking at Africa. The Church is exploding there. Cardinal Peter Turkson from Ghana has been a name on these lists for a decade. He’s a heavyweight on social justice and the environment.
But watch out for Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu from the Democratic Republic of Congo. He’s 65 and has a ton of energy. He recently led the African bishops in a pretty major pushback against the Vatican’s guidelines on same-sex blessings. He represents a Church that is very social-justice oriented on the economy, but very traditional on family issues. That’s a combination that appeals to a lot of cardinals who find the Western "culture war" exhausting.
The Wildcards Nobody is Watching
Sometimes a conclave gets deadlocked. If the "Francis fans" and the "Traditionalists" can't agree, they look for a compromise candidate.
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- Pierbattista Pizzaballa: He’s the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem. Think about that job for a second. He’s spent years navigating the most intense conflict on the planet. He’s Italian, but he’s lived in the Middle East for 30 years. He’s seen as a man of deep prayer who isn't interested in Vatican politics.
- Péter Erdő: The Hungarian. If the Church decides it needs to pivot back to a very traditional, intellectual, European style—similar to Benedict XVI—Erdő is the man. He’s a brilliant canon lawyer.
- Robert Prevost: This is a long shot. He’s an American-born cardinal (though he spent years in Peru). Historically, the Church avoids Americans because they don't want the papacy to look like an extension of U.S. soft power. But Prevost has a lot of fans because he's seen as fair and highly competent.
What Actually Happens Inside the Sistine Chapel?
It's not just a fancy dinner. It’s a total blackout. No phones. No newspapers. They even sweep the room for bugs.
The cardinals vote four times a day. They need a two-thirds majority to pick a winner. When they fail, they burn the ballots with a chemical that makes the smoke black. When they finally agree, the smoke turns white, and the bells of St. Peter’s start ringing like crazy.
It’s a weird, ancient process that feels totally out of place in 2026. But it works. It forces these men to sit in a room until they find a consensus.
Why This Election is Different
The world is a mess right now. We have wars in Europe and the Middle East, a climate crisis that isn't going away, and a massive divide between the wealthy West and the global South.
The next pope isn't just a religious leader; they're a moral voice on the global stage. Cardinals from the Global South now make up a huge chunk of the voting body. They care less about European secularism and more about poverty, debt relief, and survival.
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The real "secret" of the conclave? It’s often decided in the "congregations"—the meetings before the conclave starts. That’s where the cardinals get to know each other. They listen to speeches. They figure out who is actually a leader and who is just a careerist.
Actionable Insights for Following the Conclave
If you’re watching the smoke this year, here is how to read the room:
- Watch the first two days. If white smoke happens fast (within 48 hours), it means there was a massive consensus for a "continuity" candidate like Tagle or Parolin.
- Look for the "Third Way." If it goes to day four or five, the big names have likely failed. That’s when you start looking at the "dark horses" like Pizzaballa or even Cardinal Matteo Zuppi of Italy.
- Check the age. If they pick a 65-year-old, they want a long, transformative papacy. If they pick a 78-year-old, they want a "transitional" pope—someone to hold the wheel while the Church takes a breath.
The reality is that who will be the next pope depends on a mix of prayer, politics, and personality that usually defies every prediction. But for now, the eyes of the world are firmly fixed on Rome.
To stay ahead of the news, pay attention to the "General Congregations" where the cardinals give their final speeches before the doors lock. Those speeches often reveal the "mood" that decides the next century of the Catholic Church.