Florida politics basically doesn't sleep. Even with the 2024 elections barely in the rearview mirror, everyone is already obsessing over the next Florida governor race set for 2026. Ron DeSantis is term-limited, which means the keys to the Governor’s Mansion in Tallahassee are up for grabs.
It's going to be a circus.
Honestly, the Republican primary is already looking like a heavyweight title fight, while Democrats are trying to figure out if they can finally win a statewide race for the first time since Lawton Chiles in the 90s.
The Trump Factor and the GOP Frontrunner
If you’re looking at the early numbers, one name is sucking all the oxygen out of the room: Byron Donalds. The Congressman from Naples has a massive advantage right now, and it’s not just because he’s a frequent face on cable news.
He’s got the "golden ticket" in modern Florida GOP politics—an endorsement from Donald Trump.
Recent polling from Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy (January 2026) shows Donalds sitting at 37% among Republican primary voters. To put that in perspective, his closest actual challengers are in the single digits.
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- Jay Collins (the current Lieutenant Governor): 7%
- Paul Renner (former House Speaker): 4%
- James Fishback (investor): 3%
Nearly half of voters—49%—are still undecided, but when you tell those voters that Trump has backed Donalds, his lead jumps significantly. A Fabrizio, Lee & Associates poll even showed him hitting 68% with voters who are aware of that endorsement. It’s a huge hill for anyone else to climb.
Is Casey DeSantis Actually Running?
This is the big "what if" that keeps every other candidate awake at night. For months, rumors have swirled about First Lady Casey DeSantis entering the race. She’s incredibly popular with the base and often viewed as the "secret weapon" of the DeSantis administration.
In early 2025 polls, she was often neck-and-neck with Donalds. A University of North Florida poll from July 2025 actually had her leading at 32% to Donalds' 29%.
But here’s the thing: she hasn't jumped in. Her husband previously said her interest in running was "zero," but in politics, "zero" often means "wait and see." If she stays out, Donalds’ path is basically a cleared highway. If she gets in? It’s an immediate political earthquake.
The Democratic Long Shot
For Democrats, the next Florida governor race is about survival. They haven't won this office since 1994. That is a long, dry spell.
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The field is starting to take shape, though. Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings officially launched his "I Believe" campaign in November 2025. He’s leaning hard on his background as a former police chief and sheriff, hoping that a "law and order" Democrat can flip the script in a state that has trended deep red lately.
Then you’ve got David Jolly. He’s a former Republican Congressman who left the party and is now running as a Democrat. He’s focusing almost entirely on the "affordability crisis"—property insurance, rent, and the cost of living. It’s a smart move because, honestly, everyone in Florida is feeling the sting of insurance premiums right now.
Surprise Entrants and Wildcards
Don’t count out the underdogs. Jay Collins only recently jumped in (January 2026) after Jeanette Nuñez resigned as Lieutenant Governor to become the President of Florida International University. Collins is a combat veteran and a Purple Heart recipient, which plays very well in Florida’s Panhandle and rural counties.
We also have Jason Pizzo, who is running as a "No Party Affiliation" (NPA) candidate. He left the Democratic Party and resigned as Senate Minority Leader in early 2025. His pitch is basically: "The two main parties are broken, let’s hire someone who can actually balance a checkbook." It’s a tough sell for an NPA in a state with closed primaries, but he has the personal wealth to make some noise.
What Most People Get Wrong
A lot of national pundits think Florida is "gone" for Democrats. While the registration numbers favor Republicans by over a million voters now, the next Florida governor race will likely hinge on one specific issue: Property Insurance.
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It doesn't matter what your party is when your premium doubles in two years.
If the GOP candidates can’t convince voters that they have a fix for the insurance market, a centrist Democrat like Demings or Jolly might actually have a ghost of a chance. But they’ll need to raise about $100 million just to be heard over the Republican primary noise.
Key Dates to Watch
- June 12, 2026: The official candidate filing deadline. This is when we know for sure who is on the ballot.
- August 18, 2026: The Primary Election. This is where the GOP nominee will likely be decided.
- November 3, 2026: Election Day.
Actionable Insights for Voters
If you want to stay ahead of the curve on this race, stop looking at national headlines and start following local Florida outlets like Florida Politics or the News Service of Florida.
Watch the fundraising numbers. In Florida, money is the best indicator of viability. If a candidate isn't clearing $1 million a month in donations by the summer of 2026, they’re basically a ghost.
Also, keep an eye on the "DeSantis vs. Trump" proxy war. Even though they’ve played nice recently, their supporters are still divided. Who Ron DeSantis eventually endorses—if he does at all—will tell you everything you need to know about the future direction of the Florida GOP.