If you spent last summer staring at the spaghetti models on your local news channel, you probably noticed something weird. The Atlantic was basically a ghost town for weeks at a time. Then, out of nowhere, it felt like the ocean was trying to make up for lost time by spawning monsters.
That was the vibe of the 2025 season. Honestly, it was a year of "all or nothing." We had 13 named storms, which is actually a bit below the average of 14, but the intensity? That was a different story entirely. Out of those few storms, five became hurricanes, and four of those were major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). That's a staggering percentage.
Even weirder? For the first time in a decade, not a single hurricane actually hit the U.S. mainland. We got lucky. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) acted like a giant invisible shield, steering the big ones north or keeping them out at sea. But as we look at the latest news on the hurricanes and peer into the 2026 forecast, the experts are already warning us not to get too comfortable with that kind of luck.
The 2025 Recap: Small Numbers, Huge Hits
The 2025 season didn't even get started until June 23 with Tropical Storm Andrea. That’s the latest start we've seen since 2014. For a while, people were wondering if the season was going to be a total bust. Then Hurricane Erin showed up in August and reminded everyone that the ocean was still plenty warm.
Erin was a beast. It went from a 75 mph Cat 1 to a 160 mph Cat 5 in just 24 hours. Meteorologists call that "rapid intensification," and we’re seeing it happen way more often now because the deep ocean heat is basically rocket fuel for these systems.
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The Melissa Disaster
While the U.S. coast stayed dry, Jamaica wasn't so fortunate. Hurricane Melissa was the nightmare scenario. It bottomed out at 892 millibars of pressure and packed 185 mph winds. When it hit southwestern Jamaica on October 28, it tied for the strongest Atlantic landfall on record.
- Hurricane Erin: Reached Category 5; stayed offshore but pounded the Outer Banks with surge.
- Hurricane Humberto: Another Category 5 that luckily spun out into the open Atlantic.
- Hurricane Melissa: The strongest of the year, causing over $10 billion in damage across the Caribbean.
It's kinda crazy to think that in a year with only 13 storms, we had three Category 5s. That’s the second-most on record for a single season. It tells us that the total number of storms doesn't matter as much as how much "punch" the ones that do form actually pack.
What the News on the Hurricanes Says for 2026
So, what’s next? If you're looking for a break, the early 2026 outlooks are a bit of a mixed bag. Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) put out its first extended forecast in late December, and they’re predicting a season that looks a lot like the 30-year average.
We’re looking at about 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 "intense" or major hurricanes. That sounds "normal," but "normal" in the 2020s is still pretty active compared to thirty years ago.
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The El Niño Wildcard
The big question mark for 2026 is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Right now, we’re in a "warm-neutral" phase. If a full-blown El Niño develops by summer, it could create wind shear that rips storms apart before they get big. But if it stays neutral or slips back toward La Niña, the Atlantic is going to be wide open for business again.
Sea surface temperatures are expected to stay warmer than average. That's been the trend for years, and it's not slowing down. More heat in the water means more moisture in the air, which basically means if a storm does find a pocket of low shear, it can explode into a major hurricane in less than a day.
Why 2026 Might Be Different for the U.S.
The 2025 "landfall drought" in the U.S. was a fluke. Plain and simple. Forecasters like Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State University have pointed out that you can have a very busy year in the ocean and zero landfalls if the steering currents are in your favor. But those currents—those high-pressure ridges and troughs—change every single week.
You can't count on a high-pressure system in the Gulf to stay there forever. Eventually, one of those big storms is going to find the "slot" and head for Florida, the Carolinas, or the Gulf Coast. The names for 2026 are already out, starting with Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal.
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Actionable Insights for the Coming Season
Don't let the quiet 2025 U.S. season lull you into a false sense of security. The news on the hurricanes proves that intensity is the new normal. Here is what you actually need to do before June 1 rolls around.
Review your "Zone." Flood zones change. Even if you don't live on the beach, the rainfall from a storm like Melissa or Erin can cause flash flooding hundreds of miles inland. Check your local county's updated 2026 maps.
The "Generator" Trap. If you’re planning to buy a generator, do it now. In August, they’ll be twice as expensive and half as available. Also, make sure you actually know how to run it safely. Carbon monoxide poisoning often kills more people after the storm than the wind does during it.
Digitize your Life. Take photos of your home, your assets, and your important documents (insurance, deeds, IDs). Toss them on a secure cloud drive. If you have to evacuate, you don't want to be lugging a heavy file cabinet.
Harden the Home. Check your roof's "hurricane clips" and ensure your garage door is reinforced. Most people don't realize that if the garage door fails, the pressure change can actually lift the roof right off the house.
The 2025 season showed us that the Atlantic can be quiet for a month and then produce a Category 5 overnight. Stay weather-aware, keep an eye on the NHC updates, and remember that it only takes one storm in your backyard to make it a "bad" year.