Rugby is a game of patterns until it isn't. When you talk about New Zealand vs France, you aren't just talking about a match. You're talking about a collision of philosophies. One side is the "All Black" machine, built on ruthless efficiency and a terrifyingly high floor. The other? Pure, unadulterated chaos wrapped in a blue jersey.
Honestly, it’s the only fixture in the world where the form book feels like a suggestion rather than a rule. You've seen it happen. New Zealand can be on a twenty-match winning streak, looking like gods among men, and then a French fly-half decides to play a game of "what if" with a chip kick. Suddenly, the world order is upside down.
The Night the Streak Snapped in Paris
Most people remember the 2023 World Cup opener. It was electric. The Stade de France was literally shaking. But the real shift happened more recently, specifically in the 2024 Autumn Nations Series. France managed to pull off a 30-29 thriller that basically signaled a new era.
That win was massive. It wasn't just a victory; it was France’s third straight win over the All Blacks—a feat they hadn’t achieved in nearly thirty years. Think about that. For three decades, the All Blacks were the boogeyman. Now, Les Bleus have figured out how to keep the lights on.
In that 30-29 nail-biter, we saw exactly what makes this matchup so stressful. New Zealand led at halftime. They looked comfortable. But then Paul Boudehent and Louis Bielle-Biarrey happened. Within ten minutes of the second half, the game flipped. It’s that French "flair" everyone talks about, but it’s backed by a brutal pack of forwards now. It’s not just style anymore; it’s heavy metal rugby.
What Most People Get Wrong About the All Blacks
There’s this myth that New Zealand is "in decline" every time they lose to France. It's a lazy narrative. If you look at the 2025 mid-year series, the All Blacks came back with a vengeance. They didn’t just win; they dismantled France in the second test with a 43-17 scoreline.
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Codie Taylor and Ardie Savea were everywhere. It was a masterclass in "un-Frenching" the game. They slowed the ruck. They squeezed the life out of the set-piece. Basically, they took the ball away and refused to give it back.
The 2025 Series Breakdown
- The First Test: A tight 31-27 win for NZ. France showed up with a young squad, but their "B team" is better than most countries' first XV.
- The Second Test: The 43-17 blowout. This was Scott Robertson's "statement" game.
- The Third Test: A 29-19 grind in Hamilton. It wasn't pretty, but it proved the All Blacks had regained their composure after the 2024 Paris heartbreak.
The rivalry is weirdly cyclical. France wins with emotion and brilliance; New Zealand wins with systems and physical endurance.
Structure vs. Chaos: The Technical Battle
Why does France bother the All Blacks more than, say, England or Ireland? It’s the unpredictability.
Antoine Dupont is usually at the center of this. He doesn't play scrum-half like a human being. He plays it like a chess grandmaster who also happens to be built like a powerlifter. When New Zealand tries to implement a defensive structure, Dupont just... ignores it. He finds a gap that shouldn't exist.
On the flip side, the All Blacks rely on "The Strike." They are comfortable being under pressure for 60 minutes because they know they only need three minutes of perfection to score twice. That’s the danger of Will Jordan. You can keep him quiet all game, but if you miss one tackle on the 40-meter line, he’s gone. He’s like a glitch in the Matrix.
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Historical Context You Shouldn't Ignore
We can't talk about New Zealand vs France without mentioning 1999 and 2007. Those World Cup upsets are etched into the DNA of both nations.
- 1999: France came from 24-10 down to win 43-31. It is widely considered the greatest game ever played.
- 2007: The Cardiff nightmare for NZ. A forward pass that wasn't called, a French wall that wouldn't break, and the All Blacks went home in the quarterfinals.
These aren't just old stories. They are the reason why every time these two teams meet, the atmosphere feels different. There is a genuine sense of "anything can happen."
Looking Ahead: The 2026 Nations Championship
If you’re wondering where this is going next, keep an eye on Christchurch. 2026 is going to be a massive year because of the inaugural Nations Championship. The first-ever test in the new One New Zealand Stadium (Te Kaha) is set to be—you guessed it—New Zealand vs France.
The stakes are higher now. It’s not just a friendly tour or a one-off trophy. Every match counts toward a global league table. France is currently dealing with the "familiar question" of how to travel. They are world-beaters in Paris, but can they maintain that intensity in a cold July night in the South Island?
Practical Insights for the Casual Fan
If you're watching the next clash, don't just watch the ball. Watch the rucks.
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France has become elite at "jackalling"—stealing the ball on the ground. Players like Gregory Alldritt are experts at this. If New Zealand can’t get quick ball, their flashy backs become useless. Conversely, if the All Blacks can keep their discipline (which was their downfall in the 2023 opener, conceding 12 penalties), they usually win.
Watch for these three things in the next match:
- The Kicking Battle: Thomas Ramos is a sniper. If the All Blacks concede penalties inside their own half, he will punish them.
- The Haka Response: France loves to challenge the Haka. Whether they march forward or stand in a V-formation, it sets the psychological tone.
- Bench Depth: In 2025, the All Blacks' "Bomb Squad" (their substitutes) often outlasted the French. The last 20 minutes are usually where the game is won or lost.
The rivalry is currently sitting in a fascinating spot. France has the psychological edge of knowing they can win in Paris, while New Zealand has proven they still have the depth to sweep a series at home. It’s the most balanced the matchup has been in half a century.
To stay ahead of the curve, track the player availability for the 2026 Nations Championship. Often, French clubs (Top 14) hold back stars for summer tours, but with the new global calendar, we might finally see "Full Strength vs. Full Strength" every single time they meet. That's a scary prospect for everyone else in world rugby.
Check the official World Rugby rankings and the Nations Championship schedule to see how the points are stacking up before the Christchurch opener.