New York weekend weather is basically a rollercoaster this month. You've probably spent the last few days walking around Midtown without a heavy puffer, maybe even leaving the scarf at home. That's the "January thaw" doing its thing. It felt great while it lasted, honestly. But the party's over.
If you were planning on another balmy Saturday stroll through Central Park, I've got some news. The mild air is packing its bags. A cold front is pushing through, and it's bringing the kind of "slap in the face" chill that reminds you why New Yorkers are so cranky in the winter. We’re looking at a sharp transition from those mid-50s highs down to temperatures that struggle to stay above freezing.
The big shift in New York weekend weather
Friday is the pivot point. You'll notice the wind picking up first. It's coming from the northwest, and it's bringing a lobe of the polar vortex along for the ride. By the time Saturday morning hits, the thermometer is going to look a lot different than it did on Wednesday.
The National Weather Service is tracking a series of cold fronts merging over the Ohio Valley, and we’re right in the crosshairs for the fallout. We are talking about a 10 to 20-degree drop compared to the start of the week. Saturday's high is likely to hover around 38°F or 41°F depending on which neighborhood you're in, but the wind chill is the real story. It’s going to feel like the high 20s.
Is it going to snow? That’s the question everyone asks as soon as the temp drops. Currently, the setup for Saturday, January 17, shows a "slight chance" of snow or a rain-snow mix. AccuWeather is calling for a 60% chance of a bit of snow and rain at times. Don't go buying a new sled just yet, though. We aren't expecting a massive "Snowpocalypse" accumulation in the city. It’s more likely to be a slushy, gray mess that makes the sidewalks at the Port Authority even more treacherous than usual.
📖 Related: The Gwen Luxury Hotel Chicago: What Most People Get Wrong About This Art Deco Icon
Saturday: Layers are your best friend
Saturday is going to be cloudy and damp. If you’re heading out to the New York Knicks Alumni Fest or trying to hit the Murray’s National Cheese Lover’s event, dress for 30-degree weather even if the app says 40°.
The moisture is the tricky part. We have a low-pressure system developing offshore near the Carolinas. Some models, like the GFS, show it hugging the coast closer, which could throw more moisture our way. If that happens, those "light flurries" could turn into a steady, wet snow. Others, like the European model, keep it further out at sea. For now, plan for a raw, gray day where you’ll want waterproof boots.
Sunday: Cold but (mostly) clear
Sunday, January 18, looks a bit more stable, but it's definitely colder. We’re looking at highs in the upper 30s. The silver lining is that the sun might actually make an appearance.
If you’re doing the PAC-MAN 45th Anniversary pop-up at Macy’s or grabbing a bagel for National Bagel Day, Sunday morning will be crisp. Expect a low around 28°F. It’s the kind of morning where the air feels "tight," if that makes sense. The wind should die down a little compared to Saturday, which makes the cold a bit more bearable for a walk.
👉 See also: What Time in South Korea: Why the Peninsula Stays Nine Hours Ahead
What most people get wrong about the NYC winter
People see a 40-degree forecast and think, "Oh, that’s not so bad." In New York, 40 degrees with 15 mph winds whipping between skyscrapers feels like 20. The wind tunnel effect on avenues like 6th or 8th is no joke.
Also, the "January Thaw" we just had? It's a real meteorological thing. It happens when the jet stream shifts and lets southern air surge up the coast. But it’s almost always followed by a snap-back. This weekend is that snap-back. We’re entering a cycle where these "pulses" of Arctic air will hit us every few days through the end of the month.
Survival tips for the weekend
Honestly, the best way to handle this New York weekend weather is to lean into the indoor stuff. The "Under the Radar" theater festival is running at over 20 venues across the city. It’s a perfect excuse to sit in a warm theater and watch some experimental performance art while the slush piles up outside.
If you absolutely have to be outside—maybe you're doing the Winter Outing or hitting the rink at Bryant Park—here is the move:
✨ Don't miss: Where to Stay in Seoul: What Most People Get Wrong
- Wool over cotton. If you get damp from that Saturday mix, cotton will keep you freezing. Wool stays warm even when wet.
- Cover your neck. It sounds like something your grandma would say, but the wind on the cross-streets will find every gap in your coat.
- Check the MTA. Cold and wet weather usually means "signal problems" or track maintenance. Check the OMNY readers and the app before you head out, especially if you're traveling between boroughs.
Looking ahead, the third wave of this cold air—expected next week—is looking even harsher. Some forecasts suggest we could see subzero wind chills by the following Tuesday. This weekend is basically the warm-up (or the cool-down?) for the real deep freeze.
Keep an eye on the radar Saturday afternoon. If that coastal low shifts just fifty miles west, we could be looking at a much whiter weekend than currently predicted. For now, keep the umbrella and the heavy coat handy.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Check the National Weather Service (NWS) New York office hourly forecast on Friday evening to see if the coastal low has shifted closer to the city.
- Swap your lightweight "thaw" jacket for a wind-resistant parka before Saturday morning.
- If you're planning outdoor activities like ice skating at Wollman Rink, aim for Sunday morning when the sun is out, rather than the damp, gray mess of Saturday afternoon.