/20190826_BrakeThroughMedia_A10O8328-b9826b5ff62141608e4da514aac5b55b.jpg)
Honestly, if you’ve spent any time in New York during January, you know the vibe. One day you're bundled up like a marshmallow in a puffer coat that makes you three feet wider than you actually are, and the next, you’re sweating through your sweater in a crowded subway station because the "January Thaw" decided to make a surprise appearance.
It's weird.
New York weather is less of a predictable season and more of a chaotic mood ring. This year, 2026, started with a literal bang—confetti and snow falling simultaneously in Times Square. It was the coldest ball drop we've seen since 2018, with the mercury hitting exactly 32°F as the clock struck midnight. If you were there, you weren't just watching the ball; you were shivering through it.
The Polar Vortex and the "Ice Knife" Wind
Right now, as of early Friday morning, January 16, 2026, the city is back in the freezer. The actual temperature is sitting at 22°F, but let's be real—the temperature on the screen never tells the whole story. With a 15 mph wind coming straight out of the west, the "feels like" temperature is a biting 9°F.
That’s the kind of cold that feels like a literal knife when it hits your face on the corner of 42nd and 8th.
📖 Related: Kiko Japanese Restaurant Plantation: Why This Local Spot Still Wins the Sushi Game
We’re currently caught in a classic polar vortex pattern. It’s a term that gets thrown around a lot on the news to sound scary, but basically, it just means a lobe of Arctic air has sagged south from Canada. This is the first of three expected waves of frigid air hitting the Eastern Seaboard this month.
Why the "Feels Like" Number is the Only One That Matters
In a city of skyscrapers, the wind doesn't just blow; it tunnels. You can have a "sunny" day like today—and the forecast for Friday is indeed sunny with a high of 34°F—but if you’re caught in the shadows of the Financial District, you’re basically living in a walk-in freezer.
- Humidity: It's sitting at 37%, which is dry. Really dry. Your skin is probably already complaining about it.
- Wind: Expect that 15 mph western wind to stay consistent today.
- Sky: Clear for now, but clouds are moving in tonight as the low drops back down to 22°F.
The Weekend Snow: What’s Actually Happening
If you have plans for Saturday, January 17, you might want to keep the boots handy. We’re looking at a 70% chance of snow during the day.
The high will struggle to hit 39°F, and the low will be around 31°F. It’s not going to be a "Snowpocalypse" situation—don't go hoarding bread and milk just yet—but with a shift in wind coming from the south at 11 mph, it’s going to be that wet, heavy slush that New York is famous for.
👉 See also: Green Emerald Day Massage: Why Your Body Actually Needs This Specific Therapy
Most of the city is looking at a light accumulation, but it's enough to turn the crosswalks into those deep, treacherous slush-puddles that look like solid ground but are actually three inches deep. You know the ones.
The Great January Thaw Myth
Last week, we saw people walking the High Line in light trench coats and drinking iced lattes. Temperatures hit nearly 60°F around January 10th. People start thinking, "Oh, spring is coming early!"
It’s not.
The January Thaw is a real meteorological thing where the jet stream shifts, but it’s a tease. Historically, January is the coldest month in NYC, with average highs usually hovering around 39°F and lows at 24°F. This year is proving that point aggressively. Following the snow this weekend, we’re looking at another plunge. By Tuesday, January 20, the high is only going to be 20°F with a low of 13°F.
✨ Don't miss: The Recipe Marble Pound Cake Secrets Professional Bakers Don't Usually Share
That is "stay inside and order Thai food" weather.
Survival Strategies for the Next 10 Days
If you’re navigating the city over the next week, here’s the reality of what you’re facing based on the current data:
- Saturday is the messy day. With a 70% chance of snow and temps near 40, it’s going to be a slush-fest. Wear waterproof shoes.
- Monday and Tuesday are the "real" cold. We’re talking lows in the teens (14°F on Monday night and 13°F on Tuesday). This is when the pipes freeze and the subway platforms feel like the tundra.
- The Wind Shift. Today’s wind is from the west. Tomorrow it flips to the south, bringing moisture for that snow. By Sunday, it’s back to the northwest, which is the "cold" direction.
Looking ahead to the end of the month, we might see more potent winter storms. Meteorologists from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather have been tracking a weak La Niña, which typically means a more variable winter for the Northeast. We get these warm surges followed by "Arctic blasts."
Basically, don't pack away the heavy coat until at least April.
Next Steps for New Yorkers:
Check your window seals today while it's sunny. If you feel a draft now while it's 34°F, you're going to be miserable when it hits 13°F on Tuesday. If you're traveling, keep an eye on Saturday's snow—it's light, but New York airports (JFK and LaGuardia) have a reputation for delays even with a "dusting."