Honestly, if you've lived in the city long enough, you know the "January Thaw" is usually a big fat lie. One minute you're walking down Broadway with your coat unzipped, and the next, the wind coming off the Hudson is trying to take your skin off. That’s exactly the vibe we're seeing as we look at the New York weather Thursday forecast for January 22, 2026. After a weirdly mild start to the month, the polar vortex is finally pulling itself together and heading our way, and it’s bringing some flakes with it.
It's going to be a cold one.
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The Numbers You Actually Need
Let's get the stats out of the way. Thursday is looking like a classic mid-winter day where the sky stays a stubborn shade of "concrete gray." We are looking at a high temperature of 37°F and a low of 24°F. Now, 37°F might sound manageable on paper, but when you factor in the 74% humidity and a steady 8 mph wind coming from the west, it’s going to feel significantly sharper.
Basically, it's that damp, bone-chilling cold that New York does best.
Here is the breakdown of the conditions:
- Daytime: Light snow, 35% chance of precipitation.
- Nighttime: Light snow continues, 35% chance of precipitation.
- UV Index: 1 (Don't worry about the sunscreen; you won't see the sun anyway).
Why New York Weather Thursday is Messing with Your Commute
The real story for Thursday isn't the total accumulation—which looks pretty light—but the timing. The forecast shows a 35% chance of snow during both the day and night. In NYC, even a "dusting" of light snow is enough to turn the subway stairs into a luge track and make the taxi line at Penn Station twice as long as usual.
The National Weather Service and local outlets like CBS New York have been tracking this shift for a while. We are officially in "Deep Winter" territory. After that New Year’s Day squall we had earlier this month, the ground is already cold enough that whatever falls on Thursday has a decent chance of sticking to the sidewalks, especially in the shaded cross-streets of Midtown.
The Polar Vortex Return
A lot of people throw the term "polar vortex" around like it’s a horror movie title. In reality, it’s just a massive area of low pressure and cold air that usually hangs out near the poles. But as we’ve seen recently, when that vortex stretches or "wobbles," it sends a lobe of Arctic air straight down the Eastern Seaboard.
According to recent reports from the Climate Prediction Center, this specific cold wave is the first of a "trio" of surges. Thursday marks the arrival of the first real plunge. If you think 37°F is chilly, wait until next week when the third wave is projected to be even harsher.
What to Wear (Seriously)
Kinda sounds obvious, but people still get this wrong. Because the humidity is sitting at 74%, the air is "heavy." Dry cold you can deal with; damp cold is a different beast.
- The Base Layer: Wear something moisture-wicking. Even if you're freezing outside, the R train is going to be 80 degrees, and you’ll sweat.
- The Footwear: With light snow and a low of 24°F, the "slush puddle" risk is high. Don't wear suede. You'll regret it by 10:00 AM.
- The Outer Shell: That 8 mph west wind is going to cut right through a wool topcoat. A puffer or something wind-resistant is the move for Thursday.
Is This Normal for January 2026?
Technically, yes. While 2025 was a bit of a dry year with a 10-inch rainfall deficit, 2026 is trying to make up for it. We’ve had a few snow events already, and with La Niña being weak this year, the weather patterns are a bit more unpredictable than usual. Long-range models from the Farmers' Almanac and NWS suggest that while the first half of the winter was mild, the back half is going to be a grind.
The KEYWORD: New York weather Thursday is a reminder that winter in the city is rarely about the "big storm" and more about the constant, grey drizzle and light snow that makes you want to stay in and order Joe’s Pizza.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Check the MTA status early Thursday morning; light snow often causes "signal problems" even when it shouldn't.
- Salt your sidewalk if you're a homeowner or business owner before the sun goes down, as that 24°F low will turn any melt into black ice overnight.
- Download a hyper-local weather app to track the specific 35% snow window, as these "light snow" events in NYC often hit in 20-minute bursts rather than all-day events.