Honestly, if you’ve been enjoying that weirdly mild "January thaw" we just had in New York, I’ve got some bad news. It’s over.
The city is currently sitting under a thick blanket of 100% humidity with light rain falling at a chilly 32°F. It feels more like 25°F thanks to that north wind. But that’s just the appetizer. If you’re looking at the New York weather 10 day outlook, you’re basically looking at a steep slide into a deep freezer.
We’re talking about a massive shift from slushy rain to legit Arctic air that’s going to make waiting for the L train feel like a survival expedition.
The Immediate Mess: Snow and Slush
Sunday is basically a wash—or a "slush," depending on where you're standing. The current system has a 90% chance of precipitation, mostly shifting into snow showers as the night goes on. Today’s high of 33°F is barely hanging on, and we're heading for a low of 24°F tonight.
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NYC Emergency Management has already put out travel advisories. They’re tracking 1 to 3 inches across the five boroughs. It’s that heavy, wet stuff that’s annoying to shovel and even worse to walk through when the temperature drops tonight and freezes everything into jagged ice rinks.
Monday and Tuesday: The Sun is a Lie
Tomorrow, Monday, January 19, looks beautiful on paper. It’ll be sunny. But don't let the window view fool you. The high is only hitting 31°F, and by Monday night, it’s tanking to 14°F.
Then comes Tuesday.
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Tuesday, January 20, is going to be the "real" wake-up call for anyone who forgot we live in the Northeast. We’re looking at a high of just 21°F. That is nearly 20 degrees below the historical average for this time of year. With 15 mph winds coming out of the west, the wind chill is going to be brutal. Basically, if you don't have a heavy parka, Tuesday is the day you buy one.
The 10-Day Outlook: A Polar Rollercoaster
So, what does the rest of the week look like? It's a bit of a back-and-forth, but the "warm" days aren't actually warm.
- Wednesday (Jan 21): A slight "rebound" to 34°F, but it’ll stay cloudy and gray.
- Thursday (Jan 22): This is the outlier. We might hit 42°F. It’ll feel like summer compared to Tuesday, but it’s short-lived.
- Friday (Jan 23): Back down to 34°F.
- The Weekend (Jan 24-25): This is where it gets scary. We’re looking at highs of only 15°F for both Saturday and Sunday. Lows will be around 9°F.
This isn't just "winter weather." This is a lobe of the polar vortex reaching down and parking itself right over Times Square. We haven't seen sustained daytime highs in the mid-teens like this in a few years.
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Why the New York Weather 10 Day Forecast is Shifting
Meteorologists are pointing toward a transition to "ENSO-neutral" conditions. For the non-weather nerds, that basically means the La Niña influence that’s been keeping things somewhat predictable is fading. When that happens in January, the jet stream tends to get "wavy."
When the jet stream dips south, it drags that freezing Canadian air right down the Hudson Valley. That’s exactly what’s happening for the end of this 10-day stretch. While 2025 ended as a relatively dry year with a 10-inch rainfall deficit, 2026 is starting with these frequent, sharp cold snaps.
What You Actually Need to Do
Look, you’ve lived through New York winters before, but these 15-degree days are different. They break pipes and kill car batteries.
- Drip your faucets: If you live in an older building (which is most of us), let your taps drip on Saturday and Sunday night when it hits 9°F. Frozen pipes in a Brooklyn brownstone are a nightmare you don't want.
- Check your layers: Cotton is your enemy when it's 15°F. It traps moisture and makes you colder. Switch to wool or synthetics.
- Plan for delays: The MTA actually does a decent job with cold, but "frozen switches" are a real thing. If you’re commuting on the 24th or 25th, give yourself an extra 20 minutes.
- Pet safety: If it’s too cold for you to stand outside in a light jacket for five minutes, it’s too cold for your dog's paws. Short walks only.
The next 10 days are going to be a test of endurance. We start with snow, move into a deep freeze, get a tiny 24-hour break on Thursday, and then finish with some of the coldest air we've seen in years. Stay warm, New York. Honestly, it might be a good week to just stay inside and order takeout.