You’re standing on 5th Avenue and the wind hits you. It’s not just "cold." It’s that specific brand of New York City winter that tunnels between glass skyscrapers and finds the one gap in your scarf. If you’re checking the new york weather 10 day forecast right now, you’re probably seeing a lot of gray icons and numbers that make you want to stay in bed with a bagel.
Honestly, January in the city is a gamble.
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Today, Friday, January 16, 2026, we’re waking up to a crisp 25°F. It feels like 16°F because the wind is coming out of the west at about 10 mph. It’s sunny, which is a bit of a psychological trick. You see the blue sky from your window and think, "Maybe I don't need the heavy parka." You do. You definitely do.
The immediate 10-day breakdown
The National Weather Service is tracking a shift starting tonight. While today stays mostly sunny with a high of 36°F, the clouds are moving in late. By 1 a.m., there’s a 40% chance of snow.
Saturday is where things get messy. We’re looking at snow likely before 10 a.m., which then transitions into a slushy mix of rain and snow as the temperature climbs to 39°F. It’s the kind of weather that turns street corners into giant puddles of "slush puddles"—those deceptive lakes of melted ice that look shallow until you’re ankle-deep in freezing Atlantic-adjacent water.
Sunday keeps the wintry vibe alive with a 30% chance of snow, mostly in the afternoon.
Then comes Martin Luther King Jr. Day. It’s going to be gorgeous but brutal. Pure sunshine and a high of 34°F. But the overnight into Monday is the real story; the temperature is projected to crater to 17°F.
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Why the wind chill is the only number that matters
In Manhattan, the "real" temperature is a lie.
Meteorologists like those at the NWS New York office often point out that the venturi effect—where wind accelerates as it's forced through narrow streets—can make a 30-degree day feel like 10 degrees. Between Tuesday and Wednesday, we’re looking at breezy conditions with highs only reaching the mid-20s to low-30s. If you're walking across the Brooklyn Bridge, double whatever wind speed you see on your app.
Basically, if the forecast says 22°F for Tuesday, your face will tell you it's 12°F.
Long-term trends for late January 2026
If we look further out in the new york weather 10 day cycle, things actually start to stabilize. Sorta.
By next Thursday and Friday (January 22-23), we might see a slight "warm" front. "Warm" is relative here; we’re talking 38°F to 40°F. Historical data from Weather Spark suggests that January 29 is typically the coldest day of the year for NYC, so this mid-month stretch is really just the preamble to the deep freeze.
- Friday (Today): Sunny, 35°F high, 21°F low.
- Saturday: Rain/Snow mix, 39°F high.
- Sunday: Cloudy, chance of afternoon snow.
- Monday (MLK Day): Sunny and cold, 34°F.
- Tuesday: Breezy and frigid, high of 22°F.
- Wednesday: Partly sunny, climbing back to 31°F.
- Thursday: Mostly cloudy, 38°F.
The rest of the ten-day period looks like a slow crawl back toward the low 40s.
What most people get wrong about NYC snow
People expect a winter wonderland. They want the Central Park movie scene.
In reality, NYC snow usually lasts about four hours before it turns into a gray, salty paste. Because the city uses so much salt and has so much foot traffic, the "accumulation" often happens on top of trash bags and subway grates. If the forecast calls for "less than half an inch" like it does for this Saturday, don't expect to go sledding. Expect to get your shoes ruined.
The humidity is also sitting around 41% today, which is actually quite dry. It’s that dry air that chaps your lips and makes the cold feel "sharper" than the damp cold you get in places like London or Seattle.
Survival tactics for the next week
If you're living through this 10-day stretch, you've gotta be smart about the layers.
Waterproof boots are more important than a heavy coat for Saturday’s rain-snow mix. Once your socks are wet, the day is over. Tuesday’s 22-degree high is the day for the thermal base layers. Experts from the Met Office and local NWS stations always emphasize that the "continental climate" of New York means we get these wild swings—one day it’s 40°F and raining, the next it’s 15°F and bone-dry.
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The low UV index (currently at 1) means you won't get a sunburn, but the glare off the skyscrapers on Monday’s sunny day can be blinding. Keep the sunglasses handy.
Honestly, the best way to handle a New York January is to embrace the "indoor" version of the city. Museums, basement jazz clubs, and overly heated coffee shops are your best friends until that 10-day forecast finally shows a number starting with a 5.
Next Steps for the Week:
- Waterproof your gear before Saturday morning’s slush begins.
- Check your heating at home before Monday night’s 17°F drop.
- Plan outdoor activities for Monday or Wednesday if you want sun, but keep them short.