Politics in New York usually feels like a foregone conclusion. You’ve got the deep blue city, the redder upstate, and a math equation that almost always ends with a Democrat in Albany. But things are looking weird for the New York state gubernatorial race in 2026. Like, really weird.
Usually, a sitting governor is the untouchable apex predator of their party. Not Kathy Hochul. Honestly, she’s walking into a buzzsaw. Her approval ratings have been hovering in the "underwater" zone for a while—Siena College found back in late 2025 that about 55% of voters wanted "someone else." That's a brutal starting line for an incumbent.
The Civil War in the Democratic Primary
It's not just Republicans she has to worry about. Her own second-in-command, Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado, decided to pull a "Et tu, Brute?" and launch a primary challenge against her. This isn't just some symbolic gesture. Delgado is actually out there vacuuming up endorsements from groups like Citizen Action New York and Food & Water Action.
It’s kind of awkward, right? You share an office building, maybe see each other at the coffee machine, and one of you is actively trying to take the other's job. Hochul’s strategy so far is basically "I'm the adult in the room," focusing on her $17.5 million war chest and the backing of heavy hitters like Hakeem Jeffries and Tom Suozzi.
Why the Left is Grumpy
Progressives are still steamed about a bunch of things. They haven't forgotten the whole congestion pricing flip-flop or her adversarial relationship with the more radical wings of the state legislature. Then you have the NYC factor. The city just elected Zohran Mamdani as Mayor—a self-described democratic socialist. That shift in the city’s gravity is sending shockwaves up the Hudson.
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If Mamdani’s coalition of younger, progressive, and "rent is too high" voters migrates to Delgado or a potential third-party spoiler, Hochul is in deep trouble.
The Republican Surge: Is Bruce Blakeman the Real Deal?
On the other side of the aisle, the GOP is smelling blood. For a minute, it looked like Elise Stefanik was going to be the "MAGA" juggernaut to beat. She even launched a campaign video in late 2025. But then, in a move that surprised basically everyone, she dropped out in December.
Enter Bruce Blakeman.
The Nassau County Executive is the new favorite. He’s coming off a massive reelection win on Long Island where he won a Democratic-leaning county by 12 points. That’s the kind of math that makes Republican donors salivate.
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- The Trump Factor: Donald Trump already threw his weight behind Blakeman.
- The Platform: It’s the "Long Island Model"—heavy on crime, fighting transgender athlete participation in women's sports, and resisting migrant placements.
- The History: People keep comparing him to Lee Zeldin, who nearly toppled Hochul in 2022 (53.1% to 46.7%).
Blakeman basically wants to replicate that Zeldin energy but actually cross the finish line. He’s betting that voters are tired of the "chaos" and wants to position himself as the guy who brings suburban order to the state.
The Ghost of Andrew Cuomo
We have to talk about Andrew Cuomo. You can't mention the New York state gubernatorial race without the guy who literally wrote the book on New York power politics.
He tried for the Mayor’s office in 2025 and lost to Mamdani. You’d think that would be the end. But Cuomo is like a political horror movie villain—he keeps coming back. While he hasn't officially jumped into the governor's race (yet), he’s been "hanging around the basket," as some insiders put it. He still has a dedicated base of older, moderate Democrats who miss his "tough guy" management style, even with all the baggage from his 2021 resignation.
What Actually Matters to Voters (The Real Issues)
If you ignore the Twitter drama, the New York state gubernatorial race is going to be decided by three things.
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- The Cost of Living: New York is stupidly expensive. Housing, groceries, the MTA. If you aren't talking about affordability, you aren't winning.
- The "Trump vs. New York" Dynamic: With Trump back in the White House, Hochul is trying to position herself as the "shield" protecting New Yorkers from federal overreach.
- Safety Perception: Whether or not the stats show crime is down, people feel unsafe on the subways. Blakeman is leaning hard into this feeling.
Honestly, the "incumbent advantage" feels more like an "incumbent target" this year. Hochul has to defend every high rent check and every late train. That’s a lot of weight to carry for another four years.
What You Should Do Next
If you want to actually have a say in how this turns out, you can't just wait for the general election in November.
- Check your registration: New York has "closed" primaries. If you want to vote for Delgado or Hochul (or Blakeman), you have to be registered with that specific party. The deadline for the June 23, 2026, primary will sneak up on you.
- Look at the money: Keep an eye on the campaign finance reports. If Blakeman starts out-raising Hochul in the suburbs, the "Likely Democratic" rating from places like Cook Political Report might start to shift.
- Follow the local local stuff: Don't just watch the TV ads. Watch what’s happening in the State Senate and Assembly. The budget fights this spring will tell you exactly how the candidates plan to handle the state's dwindling revenue.
This race is going to be loud, expensive, and probably pretty mean. But for the first time in a decade, it actually feels like a real fight.