New York is supposed to be a safe bet for Democrats. It's the land of deep blue strongholds and the home base of the liberal establishment. But if you look closely at the New York presidential results, you'll see a story that isn't just about Kamala Harris winning the state’s 28 electoral votes. It's about a massive, tectonic shift in how New Yorkers actually voted.
Honestly, the numbers are kind of wild.
Harris took the state with 56.3% of the vote, while Donald Trump pulled in 43.7%. On paper, that’s a win. But in the world of politics, a win isn't always a "victory." Back in 2020, Joe Biden won New York by over 23 points. Harris won it by about 12. That is a double-digit swing toward the Republicans in a place that’s basically the headquarters of the Democratic Party. People are starting to ask: is New York actually becoming a purple state? Probably not yet. But it’s definitely not the solid blue wall it used to be.
The Shocking Shift in New York Presidential Results
What really caught everyone off guard wasn't just that Trump did better; it was where he did better. We aren't just talking about rural Upstate counties where you expect to see red lawn signs. We are talking about the five boroughs.
The Bronx and Queens saw some of the biggest swings in the entire country. Imagine that. Queens—the most diverse county in the world—swung toward Trump by more than 20 percentage points compared to 2020. That isn't a fluke. It's a trend. Trump became the first Republican to crack 30% of the vote in New York City since 1988. If you’re a local politician, those numbers should probably make you a little nervous.
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Why did the city move right?
It’s complicated, but basically, it comes down to a few things:
- The Economy: For a lot of families in the outer boroughs, the "vibes" of the economy were just bad. High prices at the bodega matter more than national GDP numbers.
- Crime and Safety: Whether or not the stats show crime is down, the perception of safety in the subways played a huge role.
- Immigration: The migrant crisis in NYC was a massive talking point. It put a strain on local resources, and voters noticed.
Upstate vs. Downstate: A Divide That’s Changing
Usually, the formula for New York is simple: the city carries the state, and Upstate tries to keep it close. But this time, the "blue" parts of Upstate weren't quite as blue, and the "red" parts got even redder.
Take a look at places like Erie County (Buffalo) or Monroe County (Rochester). Harris still won them, but the margins were thinner. Meanwhile, in counties like Nassau on Long Island, Trump actually flipped the script, winning with over 51% of the vote. Long Island has always been a battleground, but seeing it go red in the New York presidential results felt like a turning point for the GOP's local influence.
| Region | Harris % | Trump % | 2020 Margin (D) | 2024 Margin (D) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York City | 67.7% | 30.5% | +53.5 | +37.2 |
| Long Island | 47.9% | 52.1% | +1.5 | -4.2 |
| Upstate | 49.8% | 50.2% | +3.2 | -0.4 |
Note: These are based on certified 2024 tallies. The shift is real.
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The Turnout Problem
Here is something nobody talks about: turnout was kinda low.
In New York City, only about 60% of registered voters actually showed up. Compare that to the national average of 64%, and you see a gap. Why didn't people show up? Some say it’s because New York isn't a "swing state," so people feel like their vote doesn't matter. Others point to the fact that the Democratic primary was basically a non-starter, which killed any early excitement.
Interestingly, Republicans did a much better job of getting their base to the polls. According to data from the New York State Board of Elections, Republican turnout was around 74%, while Democratic turnout lagged behind at 65%. When one side is fired up and the other is just "meh," the margins start to shrink fast.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Results
A lot of folks look at the New York presidential results and think it’s just about Trump. That’s a bit of a simplification. It’s also about a growing frustration with the status quo in Albany and City Hall.
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There's this idea that New York is a monolithic liberal paradise. It's not. It's a collection of very different neighborhoods with very different concerns. The 2024 results showed that Asian American and Latino voters in the city are moving toward the middle. In some parts of South Brooklyn and the East Bronx, the shift wasn't just a ripple—it was a wave.
Political strategist J.C. Polanco recently noted that the city isn't necessarily becoming "conservative," but it is moving toward the "middle." People want results on bread-and-butter issues. If they don't get them from one party, they’ll look at the other.
The Gen Z Factor
Surprisingly, the youth vote wasn't the slam dunk for Democrats it usually is. Nationally, Gen Z shifted, and we saw that reflected in New York too. A lot of young voters felt like they were "rolling the dice" on Trump because they felt they couldn't afford a house or a life in the city under the current administration. It’s a fair point to make. When you're 22 and rent is $3,000, you're going to vote for whoever promises to change the math.
Actionable Insights: What Happens Next?
If you're following the New York presidential results, don't just look at 2024 as a one-off. Look at it as a roadmap for the 2026 midterms and the next mayoral race.
- Watch the Outer Boroughs: If Republicans keep making gains in Queens and the Bronx, the Democratic "stronghold" theory is dead.
- Focus on Local Policy: The presidential race was influenced heavily by local issues like the migrant crisis and housing costs. Expect those to dominate the next cycle.
- Voter Registration Matters: With over 21% of NYC voters being unaffiliated, there is a huge "silent middle" that both parties are going to fight over.
The 2024 election proved that no state is truly "safe" if the voters feel ignored. New York is still a blue state, sure. But the "blue" is looking a lot more purple in the rearview mirror.
To stay ahead of the next political shift, you should keep a close eye on the certified county-by-county data from the New York State Board of Elections. Understanding the specific neighborhoods that flipped can help you predict where the next big legislative battles will happen. You might also want to look into how local congressional races, like those in District 17 or 19, mirrored these presidential trends, as these are often the "canaries in the coal mine" for the state's political future.