Nobody really expected the New York presidential election to be a nail-biter. Let’s be real. It’s New York. Since 1988, the state has been as blue as the Hudson River on a clear day, and nobody in their right mind thought Kamala Harris would actually lose the 28 electoral votes. She didn't. She won them handily with about 56% of the vote. But if you just look at the "W" and move on, you’re missing the earthquake that happened underneath the surface.
The "Blue Wall" didn't fall, but it definitely cracked.
Trump didn't just win some rural areas; he made gains that have Democrats in Albany and D.C. sweating. The margin shifted in a way we haven't seen in decades. In 2020, Joe Biden carried the state by 23 points. In 2024, that gap shrunk to roughly 12 points. That’s a massive swing. If you're a political junkie or just a New Yorker wondering why your neighbor suddenly has a different yard sign, you have to look at the numbers.
The Red Shift in the Five Boroughs
Honestly, the most shocking part of the New York presidential election wasn't upstate. It was the city. We always think of NYC as this progressive monolith, but the 2024 data tells a different story. Every single borough swung toward Trump.
Queens, for instance—the most diverse place on the planet—saw Trump grab nearly 38% of the vote. To put that in perspective, he only got about 22% there back in 2016. That is a staggering jump. The Bronx saw an even wilder swing. Biden won it with 83% in 2020, but Harris's share dropped significantly, while Trump climbed to over 27%.
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Why? It wasn't just one thing. It was a "cocktail of reasons," as Mona Kleinberg from Queens College put it. You've got the economy, the migrant crisis, and a general feeling that the status quo just wasn't working for the working class.
Money, Inflation, and the Rent
New York is basically the most expensive place to live in the country. If you’re living in a working-class neighborhood in Brooklyn or the Bronx, you’re feeling the squeeze every time you go to the bodega.
People were angry about the price of eggs. They were angry about rent. And while the national economy might look good on paper to some Wall Street types, it didn't feel that way in the streets of Jackson Heights. Trump’s message on inflation resonated because people were, quite simply, broke.
The Migrant Crisis Factor
You can't talk about the New York presidential election without mentioning the 200,000+ migrants that have arrived in the city over the last couple of years. It became a massive flashpoint.
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It wasn't even necessarily about "immigration" in the abstract. It was about resources. When people see the city spending billions on shelter and services for newcomers while local community centers are struggling or schools are overcrowded, it breeds resentment. Even Mayor Eric Adams—a Democrat—was vocal about how the situation was "breaking" the city. That rhetoric filtered down to the voters, and many decided to take their frustration out at the top of the ticket.
Demographics Are No Longer Destiny
For a long time, Democrats assumed that as the country got more diverse, they’d naturally win more votes. The 2024 New York presidential election basically threw that theory in the trash.
- Latino Voters: The swing in the Bronx and parts of Brooklyn was driven heavily by Latino men. They moved toward the GOP in numbers that surprised almost every pollster.
- Asian American Communities: In Southern Brooklyn, we saw a "Chinese Republican realignment." Stephan Chan’s win in a local district was a sign of things to come, as voters focused on crime and "wasteful spending."
- The Youth Vote: This was a weird one. While Harris still won younger voters, the margin was much smaller than in 2020. A lot of young men, in particular, felt "left behind" by the Democratic platform.
What Most People Get Wrong About Upstate
While the city's shift got the headlines, the New York presidential election was also a tale of two states. Upstate New York remained a battleground of margins.
Counties like Erie (Buffalo) and Monroe (Rochester) stayed blue, but the margins tightened. Meanwhile, the truly rural areas—places like Allegany or Wyoming County—went for Trump by massive margins, some exceeding 70%.
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The gap between the "Manhattan liberal elite" and the rest of the state has never felt wider. Gavin Wax, president of the New York Young Republican Club, put it bluntly when he said Democrats became the party of the elite rather than the working-class base. Whether you agree with him or not, the election results suggest a lot of New Yorkers feel the same way.
The "Protest Vote" and the Primary Signal
We should have seen this coming during the primaries. In the April Democratic primary, about 15% of voters in NYC left their ballots blank. That was a huge protest over the administration’s handling of the Gaza conflict.
While most of those voters eventually came home to Harris in November, some didn't. Others stayed home. Turnout in the general election was about 60%—lower than the record-breaking 2020 cycle. When Democrats don't turn out in the city, the state starts to look a lot more purple.
Actionable Insights for the Future
The 2024 New York presidential election wasn't a fluke. It was a trend. If you're involved in local politics or just want to understand where the state is headed, here are the real takeaways:
- Economic issues trump everything else. If people can't afford their groceries, they don't care about "democracy on the ballot." They want to know how you're going to lower their ConEd bill.
- The "Sanctuary City" debate is evolving. Voters are increasingly looking for a balance between compassion and fiscal reality. The "blank check" approach is losing support even in deep-blue areas.
- Micro-targeting matters. The GOP made huge strides by talking specifically to Asian and Latino communities about safety and education. Democrats can no longer rely on "identity politics" to carry the day.
- Watch the suburbs. Counties like Nassau and Suffolk on Long Island swung significantly redder. These are the bellwethers for 2026 and 2028.
The reality is that New York is still a Democratic stronghold, but it's no longer a safe one. The 2024 results were a warning shot. Whether the party listens—or whether the GOP can sustain this momentum—is the big question for the next cycle.
Next Steps for You:
If you want to see exactly how your specific neighborhood voted, you should check out the NYC Campaign Finance Board’s Voter Analysis Report or the New York State Board of Elections official certified results. They provide granular, block-by-block maps that show just how much your corner of the world shifted in this election.