New York City politics just doesn't do "quiet." If you've been tracking the new york mayoral race polls over the last year, you know we've transitioned from a predicted Andrew Cuomo coronation to a full-blown progressive takeover. Honestly, the data shift was so fast it gave seasoned consultants whiplash.
By the time the general election wrapped up in November 2025, the city looked fundamentally different. The incumbent, Eric Adams, saw his approval ratings tank to a historic 20% in March 2025 following federal corruption charges. It’s kinda wild to think that a sitting mayor would end up dropping out in late September and endorsing his former rival, but that’s exactly where we landed.
The Primary Shock: How the Polls Missed the Mamdani Surge
Most people think polls are a crystal ball. They aren't. They're a snapshot of a moment, and in early 2025, that snapshot was all Andrew Cuomo. In February 2025, Manhattan Institute data showed Cuomo comfortably leading a hypothetical Democratic primary with 53% of the vote in final-round simulations.
Then Zohran Mamdani happened.
Mamdani, a Democratic Socialist Assemblymember, started the year at a measly 1% in most surveys. By May, Emerson College Polling had him at 23%. By the June 24 primary, the "unthinkable" occurred.
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Primary Results: Round by Round
In the first round of the Democratic primary, Mamdani pulled 469,642 votes (about 43.8%). Cuomo trailed at 36.1%. Because NYC uses ranked-choice voting, it took until the final round for Mamdani to officially cross the threshold, finishing with 56.4% to Cuomo's 43.6%.
The polls were "off" because they underestimated youth turnout. Mamdani won roughly 60% of voters aged 18–34. If you don't account for those younger New Yorkers actually showing up, your numbers are basically useless.
The General Election: A Three-Way Brawl
After losing the primary, Cuomo didn't just go home. He launched the "Fight and Deliver" party line to run as an independent. This set up a bizarre three-way race between Mamdani (the Democrat), Cuomo (the Independent), and Curtis Sliwa (the Republican).
Polls from October 2025 showed a city deeply divided by age and race:
- Black Voters: Initially a Cuomo firewall (39% first-choice support in June), this group shifted significantly toward Mamdani by late October. Emerson reported Mamdani’s support among Black New Yorkers jumped from 50% to 71% in just one month.
- Young Voters: Mamdani held a staggering 69% support among those under 50.
- Older Voters: Cuomo and Sliwa split the over-50 crowd, with Cuomo taking 31% and Sliwa taking 28%.
A Marist Poll released on October 30, 2025, showed Mamdani leading Cuomo 48% to 32%, with Sliwa trailing at 16%. The momentum was undeniable. People were tired of the "wrong track"—66% of voters felt the city was heading in the wrong direction.
What Voters Actually Cared About
You can't talk about new york mayoral race polls without talking about the "why." The numbers weren't just moving for fun; they were reacting to a massive affordability crisis.
- Crime and Public Safety: This was the top concern for 26% of voters. Cuomo campaigned on hiring 5,000 new NYPD officers. Sliwa wanted 7,000. Mamdani took a different route, proposing a Department of Community Safety with mental health responders.
- Housing Costs: 25% of voters cited this as their priority. Mamdani’s promise of a rent freeze for 1 million rent-regulated apartments clearly resonated more than Cuomo’s deregulation plans.
- The "Change" Factor: In the final Emerson survey, Mamdani was the only candidate with a positive net favorability (+5). Cuomo was sitting at a grim -23.
The Final Count and the Transition
The November 4, 2025, election saw a massive spike in early voting. Over 734,000 New Yorkers cast ballots before Election Day—more than quadruple the 2021 numbers. Mamdani's ground game, fueled by an "army of tens of thousands of volunteers," according to City & State, proved too much for Cuomo’s PAC-funded ads.
By late November, Mayor-elect Mamdani was already naming his transition team. He didn't play it safe either. He brought in heavy hitters like former FTC Chair Lina Khan and First Deputy Mayor Maria Torres-Springer. It’s a mix of radical change and institutional knowledge that most analysts didn't see coming.
Actionable Insights for Following Future NYC Races
- Don't ignore the "Undecideds": In early 2025, 16-20% of voters were undecided. That’s where the race is won or lost.
- Watch the Borough Splits: Cuomo always dominated the Bronx and Queens/Staten Island, but Mamdani’s ability to flip Brooklyn was the nail in the coffin.
- Youth Turnout is the Wildcard: If turnout among voters under 35 exceeds 20%, the progressive candidate almost always over-performs their polling.
The 2025 cycle proved that name recognition (which Cuomo had in spades) isn't a shield against a well-organized, policy-heavy insurgent campaign. For anyone looking at the next cycle, the lesson is clear: New Yorkers are voting with their wallets and their sense of safety, and they’re increasingly willing to bet on the "outsider."
To stay ahead of the next shift in the city's political landscape, keep a close watch on the quarterly Board of Elections registration data. These numbers often reveal shifting demographic blocks long before a pollster calls their first cell phone. Focus specifically on "non-enrolled" or Independent voter growth in Western Queens and North Brooklyn, as these areas have become the city's new kingmakers. Additionally, tracking the fundraising-to-volunteer ratio provides a more accurate "vibe check" than early-season favorability ratings.