If you spent any time looking at the new york mayoral odds leading up to the most recent election cycle, you probably feel like you just walked out of a high-stakes poker game where the underdog swept the pot. It was wild. Nobody—and I mean nobody—actually saw the final board looking the way it did when the dust settled on November 4, 2025.
For months, the political betting markets and the talking heads on cable news were practically coronating Andrew Cuomo. He was the "comeback kid" with a name everyone knew and a war chest that could buy a small island. But politics in New York doesn't follow a script.
The Odds That Defied the Experts
Early in the 2025 cycle, the betting markets were heavily skewed. If you were tracking the new york mayoral odds in the spring of 2025, Andrew Cuomo was hovering around a 50% to 60% probability of winning the Democratic primary. He had the "experience" factor. Voters told pollsters they wanted someone who knew where the levers of power were, even if they weren't crazy about his past baggage.
Then came Zohran Mamdani.
Mamdani, a Democratic Socialist and State Assemblymember, started as a literal long shot. We're talking 100-to-1 stuff. People kind of chuckled when he talked about free buses and a total rent freeze. But then something shifted in the summer. By August 1, 2025, Interactive Brokers' ForecastTrader platform showed a massive swing: Mamdani's odds skyrocketed to 77%. It was a "wait, what?" moment for the entire city.
Breaking Down the Primary Shift
The June primary was the first real earthquake. Despite the early leads for Cuomo, the ranked-choice voting system—which is still kinda confusing to half the people I talk to—completely changed the math.
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- Round 1: Mamdani pulled about 43.8% of the first-choice votes.
- The Challenger: Cuomo was right behind him at 36.1%.
- The Field: Brad Lander (11.2%), Adrienne Adams (4.1%), and Scott Stringer (1.6%) were quickly squeezed out.
Once the lower-tier candidates like Zellnor Myrie and Jessica Ramos were eliminated and their votes redistributed, Mamdani's lead became a landslide. He ended up with 56.4% in the final round of the primary. Cuomo didn't just walk away, though. He did the most "Cuomo" thing possible: he stayed in the race on an independent line called the "Fight and Deliver Party."
Why Eric Adams Dropped Off the Board
You can't talk about the odds without talking about the incumbent who vanished. Eric Adams started the year insisting he was "the face of the new Democratic Party." But the federal investigations were like a lead weight. By April 2025, after federal charges of bribery and fraud were dropped with prejudice by the DOJ, Adams tried to pivot. He left the Democratic primary to run as an independent.
It didn't work.
His polling was in the basement—around 6% to 12% depending on which week you checked. By late September 2025, he officially threw in the towel. It was a stunning fall for a guy who once looked unbeatable. He eventually endorsed Cuomo, but by then, the momentum was already a freight train moving in Mamdani's direction.
The General Election: A Three-Way Brawl
By October, the new york mayoral odds were basically a two-man race with a red-bereted spoiler. Curtis Sliwa, the Republican nominee, was basically just there to keep things interesting. He stayed at a steady 14% to 16% in the polls, mostly screaming about "law and order" while Mamdani and Cuomo traded blows.
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The final Quinnipiac University poll taken right before the election was the nail in the coffin. It showed Mamdani at 43% and Cuomo at 33%. The generational divide was the real story.
Basically, if you were under 50, you were likely voting for Mamdani. If you were over 65, you were probably sticking with Cuomo. Younger voters turned out in numbers we haven't seen in decades—turnout was over 43%, which is insane for an off-year NYC election.
The Final Results (November 4, 2025)
| Candidate | Party | Popular Vote | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zohran Mamdani | Democratic / WFP | 1,114,184 | 50.78% |
| Andrew Cuomo | Independent | 906,614 | 41.32% |
| Curtis Sliwa | Republican | 153,749 | 7.01% |
Mamdani became the first Muslim and first South Asian mayor in the city's history. He’s also the youngest since the late 1800s.
What This Means for New York in 2026
So, why do these new york mayoral odds and the resulting victory still matter now that we're in 2026? Because the "Mamdani Effect" is currently hitting the real world. Since taking office on January 1, the new administration has been moving fast.
He's already nominated Midori Valdivia to lead the TLC and is pushing hard for that $1 billion "Department of Community Safety." It’s a complete 180 from the Adams era. If you're a property owner, the talk of a rent freeze is terrifying. If you're a commuter in the outer boroughs, the promise of free buses is the best thing you've heard in years.
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Honestly, the biggest takeaway from the odds cycle is that the "expert" class in NYC is often totally disconnected from the ground game. They thought Cuomo's name recognition would carry him. They didn't account for a massive surge in young, progressive voters who were tired of the status quo and the constant legal drama surrounding City Hall.
Actionable Insights for Following NYC Politics
If you’re looking to track how the next few years of this administration will go, don't just look at the New York Post or the mainstream polls. Keep an eye on these indicators:
- Special Election Odds: As City Council seats shift or state positions open up, watch the predictive markets like ForecastEx. They caught the Mamdani surge months before the traditional media did.
- Rent Guidelines Board: This is the first big test. If Mamdani actually forces a 0% increase on rent-stabilized apartments, it’ll signal that he’s playing for keeps with his base.
- The "Independent" Factor: Cuomo’s 41% shows there is still a massive, moderate-to-conservative block in the city that feels unheard. Watch for them to organize around a single challenger for the 2029 cycle.
The 2025 race proved that NYC is no longer a "machine" town where the party pick wins by default. The odds are now whatever the most energized group of voters decides they are.
Next Steps: To get a clearer picture of how the current administration is affecting your neighborhood, you should look up the latest City Council budget proposals for 2026. This is where the "Department of Community Safety" will either become a reality or get caught in the legislative gears.