You’ve probably heard the rumors or seen the maps shifting colors on election night. New York is a powerhouse, no doubt about it. But if you were looking at the 2024 numbers and thought something felt a little... off, you weren't imagining things. The state’s footprint in Washington actually shrank.
So, let's get straight to the point: New York had 28 electoral votes in 2024. If you remember a higher number from the 2020 or 2016 elections, your brain isn't playing tricks on you. The state used to have 29. Losing that one vote might not sound like a catastrophe, but in the high-stakes math of the Electoral College, every single point is a big deal. It's basically the difference between a "must-win" and a "nice-to-have" for some campaign strategists.
Why Did the Number Change?
It all comes down to the 2020 Census. Every ten years, the federal government does a massive head count of everyone living in the U.S. Then, they use a fancy (and slightly confusing) mathematical formula called the "Method of Equal Proportions" to divvy up the 435 seats in the House of Representatives.
Since your electoral votes are just your House members plus your two Senators, if you lose a House seat, you lose an electoral vote. New York's population grew, but it didn't grow as fast as states like Texas or Florida.
Honestly, the way New York lost that seat was kind of heartbreaking for local officials. They were only 89 people short of keeping that 29th vote. 89 people! That’s like two classrooms of kids. If a few more apartment buildings in Queens or a couple of blocks in Buffalo had been more diligent about filling out their forms, the map would look different today.
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The Shrinking Empire State
New York’s influence has been on a slow, steady slide for a long time. Back in the 1940s, the state was the undisputed king of the Electoral College with 47 votes. Think about that for a second. It had more sway than almost any two or three other states combined.
Nowadays, California has taken that crown, and Texas is nipping at its heels. The shift reflects a massive migration of Americans moving toward the Sun Belt—the South and the West—leaving the Northeast and the Rust Belt with less of a say in who becomes president.
How the 28 Votes Were Cast in 2024
In New York, it’s a "winner-take-all" system. This means if a candidate wins the popular vote by even a single person, they get all 28 electoral votes. There’s no splitting them up like they do in Maine or Nebraska.
In the 2024 election, Kamala Harris carried the state. Even though there was a noticeable swing toward the Republican side—Donald Trump actually put up the best numbers for a Republican in New York City in decades—the state remained firmly "blue" overall.
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- Kamala Harris (Democratic): 28 Electoral Votes
- Donald Trump (Republican): 0 Electoral Votes
Even though Trump didn't take any of the electoral points, the 2024 results were a bit of a wake-up call for Democrats. New York was the state with the single biggest Republican swing in the entire country compared to 2020. People were talking about it for weeks. It didn't change the 28-vote outcome this time, but it definitely changed the conversation about how "safe" the state really is.
Is New York Still a "Big Prize"?
Totally. Despite losing a vote, New York is still the fourth-largest prize on the map. Only California (54), Texas (40), and Florida (30) have more.
Because it’s so reliably Democratic, you don't see candidates spending millions of dollars on TV ads in Manhattan or Rochester during the general election. They save that money for Pennsylvania or Michigan. But don't let the lack of commercials fool you. New York is where the money is. Candidates from both parties treat the state like a giant ATM, holding high-dollar fundraisers to fuel their campaigns in the swing states.
What about 2028 and 2032?
The 28 votes New York has now aren't going anywhere for the 2028 election. We use the same census data for two presidential cycles. However, looking ahead to 2032, things look even grimmer for New York’s standing. Early projections suggest the state could lose another one or even two seats by the time the 2030 Census rolls around.
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If people keep moving to Florida and Texas at the current rate, New York's voice in the Electoral College is going to keep getting quieter.
Actionable Insights for New Yorkers
If you feel like your "safe state" vote doesn't matter, or if you're worried about the state losing influence, here’s what actually makes a difference:
- Participate in the Census: It sounds boring, but the 89-person miss in 2020 proves every single person counts. When 2030 rolls around, make sure your household is counted.
- Focus on Down-Ballot Races: While the 28 electoral votes might feel like a foregone conclusion, your local congressional and state assembly races are often decided by tiny margins. These people draw the district lines that determine how those electoral votes are organized.
- Advocate for the National Popular Vote: New York has already signed onto the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. If enough states join, the Electoral College would effectively be bypassed, and the candidate who wins the most votes nationwide would become president. If you hate the "winner-take-all" system, this is the primary legal path to changing it.
Understanding the math behind the 28 votes is the first step in realizing how the system works—and why your neighbors moving to Austin or Miami actually changes the power balance in Washington D.C.