New York has long been seen as a political heavyweight, a massive prize that can swing the tides of history. But if you’re looking at an old map from the 1940s or even the early 2000s, you’re basically looking at a ghost. Things have changed. If you’re asking how many electoral votes does New York have right now, the answer is 28.
That number might sound high—and it is—but it represents a slow, steady leak of influence that has been happening for decades. Just a few years ago, for the 2020 election, New York had 29. Go back to the middle of the 20th century, and the state was sitting on a massive 47 votes.
So, why the drop? Why does the Empire State keep losing its grip on the Electoral College? It’s not that people are vanishing, exactly. It’s that other places are growing faster. Basically, the U.S. population is like a shifting pile of sand, and for a long time, that sand has been blowing toward the South and the West.
The Math Behind the 28 Votes
The way we figure out these numbers isn’t some dark secret, though it feels like it sometimes. Every ten years, the U.S. Census Bureau does a massive headcount. They try to find every single person living in the country. Once they have that number, they use a fancy formula to divide up the 435 seats in the House of Representatives.
New York currently has 26 districts in the House of Representatives. You add the two U.S. Senators (every state gets two, no matter how tiny or huge they are), and you get 28.
- House Seats: 26
- Senate Seats: 2
- Total Electoral Power: 28
The crazy thing about the most recent shift is how close it was. New York lost that 29th seat by a hair. According to the Census Bureau, if New York had counted just 89 more people in the 2020 Census, it would have kept its 29th electoral vote. 89 people! That’s basically one small apartment building in Queens or a tiny village upstate. Because of those 89 "missing" people, the state lost a seat to Minnesota.
A History of Shrinking Influence
Honestly, New York’s history in the Electoral College is a bit of a tragedy if you’re a fan of state power. In 1944, when FDR was running for his fourth term, New York was the undisputed king of the map with 47 electoral votes. Back then, if you won New York, you were basically halfway to the White House.
But since then, it’s been a downhill slide:
- 1950s: 45 votes
- 1970s: 41 votes
- 1990s: 33 votes
- 2010s: 29 votes
- 2020s: 28 votes
This doesn't mean New York is empty. It’s still the fourth most populous state in the country. But while New York grows a little bit, places like Texas and Florida are exploding. Texas gained two seats after the last census, and Florida gained one.
Why 28 Still Matters (A Lot)
You might think that because New York is "solid blue"—meaning it almost always votes for the Democratic candidate—the exact number of votes doesn't matter much. If the Democrat is going to win it anyway, what's the difference between 28 and 29?
Well, it matters for the "path to 270." To win the Presidency, a candidate needs a majority of the 538 total electoral votes. That number is 270.
New York’s 28 votes represent about 10% of the total needed to win. It’s still a massive "base" for the Democratic party. It’s much harder for a Republican to find a path to 270 when they start at a 28-vote disadvantage. Conversely, it gives the Democratic nominee a huge head start, allowing them to focus their resources on "swing states" like Pennsylvania or Michigan.
The "Winner-Take-All" Reality
New York uses a winner-take-all system. This is how most states do it, except for Maine and Nebraska. If a candidate wins the popular vote in New York by even one single vote, they get all 28 electoral votes.
In the 2024 election, Kamala Harris took the state. Even though Donald Trump made some surprising gains in places like Long Island and even parts of the five boroughs, the overall state went to Harris. Thus, all 28 votes went to her.
Some people argue this system is unfair because it ignores the millions of people who voted for the losing candidate. If you’re a Republican in Manhattan or a Democrat in a deep-red rural county, your vote for President doesn't technically "count" toward the final Electoral College tally in the same way it would in a proportional system.
What Happens in 2028 and Beyond?
The number 28 is locked in for a while. The 2024 and 2028 presidential elections will both use the allocations from the 2020 Census. We won't see a change until the 2030 Census is completed and the seats are reapportioned for the 2032 election.
Early population estimates aren't looking great for New York, though. Since the pandemic, there’s been a lot of talk about people moving out of the state to places with lower taxes or warmer weather. If those trends hold, New York could very well drop to 27 or 26 votes by the time the 2032 election rolls around.
📖 Related: Why Are Florida Flags at Half Staff Today? What You Need to Know
Actionable Insights for the Curious Citizen
If you want to keep an eye on how New York's power is shifting, here is what you should do:
- Track the 2030 Census Prep: The accuracy of the next headcount will determine if New York loses another seat. Support local efforts to ensure everyone is counted.
- Watch the Redistricting Commissions: Every time the number of electoral votes changes, the state has to redraw its congressional districts. This is a huge political battle that affects who represents you in D.C.
- Study the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact: There is a movement to bypass the Electoral College without a Constitutional Amendment. New York has already joined this compact. It would only take effect if enough states join to represent 270 electoral votes. If that happens, the number "28" becomes irrelevant because the winner of the national popular vote would get New York's support regardless of the state's internal tally.
New York is still a giant, but it’s a giant that's leaning a bit. 28 votes is still enough to make it the fourth most powerful state in the union, behind California (54), Texas (40), and Florida (30). It remains a cornerstone of American politics, even if it isn't the 47-vote powerhouse it once was.