New York isn’t the deep blue monolith people think it is. Honestly, if you only looked at the bright blue shade covering the state on a national map, you'd miss the massive shifts happening under the surface. In the 2024 general election, the "Empire State" saw some of the most dramatic political swings in the entire country.
The New York election results by county tell a story of a state in transition. While Kamala Harris took the state’s 28 electoral votes, she did so with a significantly smaller margin than Joe Biden in 2020. We're talking about a state where Donald Trump managed to win 43.7% of the total vote. That’s the highest for a Republican since the 1980s.
The Massive Red Shift in the Five Boroughs
The most shocking part of the data? New York City itself. You’ve probably heard people say the city is a Democratic fortress, but the 2024 numbers show the walls are thinning.
Take Queens. It’s one of the most diverse places on the planet. Yet, Trump saw a nearly 10-point jump in support there compared to 2020. He ended up with 37.7% of the vote in Queens. In the Bronx, usually a bastion of progressivism, he pulled 27.3%. These aren't just minor blips; they are tectonic shifts in areas that Democrats have long taken for granted.
Manhattan remained the bluest spot, with Harris pulling over 82%. But even there, the "red shift" was visible in specific neighborhoods. Why? Local strategists like J.C. Polanco point to a combination of economic frustration and concerns over immigration. It turns out that kitchen-table issues like the cost of a gallon of milk or rent prices resonate just as loudly in Flatbush as they do in Farmhouse.
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Long Island and the Suburbs Flip the Script
If the city was moving right, the suburbs were sprinting. For the first time in a while, Long Island felt like a completely different world from the city.
- Nassau County: Trump won it by about 4 points (52.1% to 47.9%). This is a massive deal because Nassau has a huge population and often acts as a bellwether for the "moderate" voter.
- Suffolk County: This was a blowout for the GOP. Trump took 55% of the vote here.
- Rockland County: Another big win for the Republicans, with a 12-point margin.
These areas are filled with commuters and middle-class families. The data suggests that the "suburban mom" and "working-class dad" demographics in these counties were deeply unhappy with the status quo. They didn't just stay home; they showed up and changed the map.
The Rural-Urban Divide: Still Huge, But Different
Upstate New York remains a sea of red, but with some notable islands of blue. It’s basically the inverse of the city.
In counties like Allegany (71.3% Trump) and Wyoming (74.1% Trump), the Republican dominance is nearly absolute. These are the places where "New York Election Results by County" looks like a completely different state. These communities feel disconnected from Albany and New York City. They see the state's policies on energy, guns, and taxes as being designed for city dwellers, not for them.
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However, the "Blue Islands" held their ground.
- Tompkins County: Home to Cornell, it was the bluest county outside of Manhattan (75.3% Harris).
- Albany County: The capital region stayed blue with 62.9%.
- Erie County: Buffalo kept its Democratic leaning with a 54.8% share for Harris, though the margin was tighter than expected.
Turnout: The Silent Storyteller
Here is the thing. Turnout was weird. In the 2024 general election, statewide turnout sat around 60.2%. That sounds decent, but it was actually lower than previous presidential years.
What’s even crazier is the primary data. In the April Democratic primary, nearly 15% of voters in NYC submitted blank ballots. That was a huge "protest vote" mainly over international issues like the conflict in Gaza. By the time November rolled around, some of those voters came back to the fold, but many clearly didn't.
Republicans, on the other hand, were incredibly efficient. They mobilized a larger share of their registered base. According to analysis by the Times Union, Republican turnout was around 74% of their enrolled voters, while Democrats were closer to 65%. In a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2-to-1, that "enthusiasm gap" is the only reason the race felt even remotely competitive in the suburbs.
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Why Does This Matter for 2026 and Beyond?
We're looking at a New York that is no longer "safe" in the traditional sense. The 2024 results suggest that the "migrant crisis" and "inflation" weren't just talking points—they were ballot-movers.
If you're looking at New York election results by county, you have to look at the "Pivot Counties." Suffolk County is a prime example. It’s a county that voted for Obama twice, then Trump, then Biden, and now Trump again. It’s the ultimate swing region.
Actionable Insights for New Yorkers
If you want to understand where the state is going, don't just watch the evening news. Dig into the raw data.
- Check the Certified Totals: The New York State Board of Elections (BOE) publishes the final, down-to-the-vote counts. These often differ from the "99% in" numbers you see on election night.
- Watch the Enrollment Trends: The number of "Unaffiliated" (Blanks) voters is growing faster than either major party. In NYC, over 21% of voters aren't in a party. They are the ones who will decide the 2026 gubernatorial race.
- Local Matters: Pay attention to your County Clerk and District Attorney races. In 2024, these down-ballot races often showed even bigger shifts than the Presidential line, proving that local policy is driving the "red shift" just as much as national politics.
The map is changing. Whether it stays this way depends on how the parties react to a New York electorate that is clearly feeling ignored.
To stay informed on future shifts, you should regularly monitor the New York State Board of Elections' official "Enrollment by County" reports, which are updated monthly and provide the first signs of shifting political allegiances before a single vote is even cast.