New York isn’t exactly known for being a GOP stronghold. It's blue. Deep blue. Usually. But if you actually look at the New York 2024 election results, something feels... different. While Kamala Harris took the state's 28 electoral votes, the margins tell a story that's making plenty of local consultants lose sleep.
Donald Trump didn't win New York, but he made the kind of gains that were unthinkable ten years ago. He pulled 43.7% of the state-wide vote. Compare that to 2020 when he hit 37.7%. That’s a massive jump for a Republican in the Northeast. Honestly, the shift in New York City was even more jarring. Every single borough moved toward Trump. In the Bronx and Queens, the swing was over 20 points.
The Presidential Breakdown
People kept saying New York was "safe." It was, technically. Harris won 4,619,544 votes to Trump’s 3,579,519. But safe usually implies a cushion that doesn't deflate by 6 percentage points in one cycle.
The map looked like a patchwork quilt of frustration. Upstate, Trump dominated the rural stretches, while Harris held the urban hubs like Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse. But the suburbs? That's where the real fight lived. Long Island turned into a bright red beacon. Nassau County, which Biden won in 2020, flipped to Trump by 4 points. Suffolk County wasn't even close; Trump took it by 10.
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Voters were basically shouting about the same things: the cost of eggs and the chaos at the border. You've probably heard people in Queens or Brooklyn complaining about the same stuff people in Ohio do. It turns out, New Yorkers aren't immune to "pocketbook" politics.
Congress: The Battle for the House
While the top of the ticket was interesting, the real drama for most junkies was in the House races. New York was supposed to be the Democratic "firewall" to win back the House. It didn't quite work out that way, though they did claw back some ground.
- NY-19 (Hudson Valley/Southern Tier): Josh Riley (D) finally took down Marcus Molinaro (R) in a rematch. It was tight—51.1% to 48.9%.
- NY-22 (Syracuse area): John Mannion (D) flipped this seat, beating Brandon Williams (R).
- NY-4 (Long Island): Laura Gillen (D) managed to oust Anthony D’Esposito (R).
- NY-17 (Lower Hudson Valley): Mike Lawler (R) held on. Despite the district leaning blue on paper, Lawler’s moderate-ish branding worked. He beat Mondaire Jones with 52.2% of the vote.
It was a split decision. Democrats won the "battle of the suburbs" in some places but got clobbered in others. Basically, the state GOP proved they aren't dead yet, especially in places like Rockland and Orange Counties.
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The Proposition 1 Factor
Then there was Proposal 1. This was the "Equal Rights Amendment." It was a huge win for Democrats, passing with 62.5% of the vote. It basically bakes abortion rights and protections against discrimination into the state constitution.
It was a weird contrast. You had people voting for Trump and voting for Prop 1. It shows that New Yorkers can be socially progressive but economically fed up. They wanted their rights protected, but they also wanted a change in management.
Why It Matters for 2026
Looking at the New York 2024 election results, you realize the "blue wall" has some serious cracks. The shift among Latino and Asian American voters in NYC was staggering. If Democrats keep losing ground in the outer boroughs, the state becomes a lot more competitive than anyone wants to admit.
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Next steps for anyone trying to make sense of this?
First, keep an eye on the 2026 Governor's race. The GOP is going to use these results as a roadmap. They know they can win on Long Island and make a dent in the city.
Second, watch how the state legislature reacts to the Prop 1 mandate. There's a lot of law-making to do to align everything with the new constitutional language.
Finally, pay attention to local turnout. 2024 saw a 62.2% turnout—lower than 2020. If people stay home in the off-years, the shifts we saw this November might just become the new normal.