He actually did it. After decades of trying and coming up short, Prabowo Subianto finally walked into the Merdeka Palace as the man in charge. It’s 2026 now, and the honeymoon phase is officially over. Most people outside Jakarta think his presidency is just a continuation of Joko Widodo’s era, but if you look at the 2026 state budget, you’ll see things are shifting in a way that’s actually kinda wild.
Prabowo isn't just "Jokowi 2.0." He’s something else entirely.
The new president of Indonesia took office in October 2024 with Gibran Rakabuming Raka—Jokowi’s eldest son—as his VP. It was a move that basically broke the brains of political analysts everywhere. How does a former general accused of human rights abuses team up with the son of the "Democracy King"? Well, power makes for strange bedfellows. Now, in early 2026, the administration is moving past the slogans and into the "stress test" phase.
The Massive Bet on Free Meals
The one thing everyone talks about is the Free Nutritious Meal (MBG) program. Honestly, it’s the biggest social experiment Indonesia has ever seen. Prabowo just announced that the government is targeting 82 million beneficiaries by the end of 2026.
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Think about that scale.
As of mid-January 2026, they’ve already hit 58 million people, including kids, pregnant women, and the elderly. The government is pouring roughly IDR 335 trillion (nearly $20 billion) into this for the 2026 fiscal year alone. Critics call it a populist drain on the budget, but Prabowo argues it’s an "economic driver" that’s strengthening local cooperatives. He’s basically betting the entire country’s credit rating on the idea that better-fed kids will lead to a 5.4% GDP growth. It’s bold. Or risky. Depends on who you ask at the coffee shop.
Rice, Corn, and the "No-Import" Dream
The most surprising win for the new president of Indonesia so far happened on December 31, 2025. Prabowo officially declared that Indonesia had achieved rice self-sufficiency.
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Despite a brutal El Niño and droughts that messed with the 2024-2025 harvests, national production hit 34.71 million tons. For the first time in ages, Indonesia didn't import a single grain of rice for consumption or corn throughout 2025.
Why this matters:
- National Pride: Food security is a massive political talking point in the archipelago.
- Fiscal Space: Not spending foreign currency on food imports helps stabilize the Rupiah.
- The "Sekolah Rakyat" Factor: Prabowo is using these 166 new schools to push agricultural training.
But let’s be real. It’s not all sunshine. The 2026 budget is the first one that is 100% Prabowo’s own design. He’s projecting revenues of IDR 3,153.6 trillion, but tax collections in late 2025 were actually lagging. If the money doesn’t come in, he’s going to have to choose between his massive social programs and the infrastructure projects Jokowi loved so much.
The Centralization of Power
One thing that’s making people nervous is how Prabowo runs the show. It’s very top-down. He’s got 48 ministries—which is huge—and he’s basically using a small circle of loyalists to keep them in line.
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A recent report from the East Asia Forum pointed out that this "loyalist circle" might be creating a bubble. Because everything is so centralized, critical information sometimes takes too long to reach his desk. It’s a very "military style" management. Quick execution, sure, but maybe not enough room for dissenting voices. He recently launched Danantara, a national investment fund meant to consolidate all State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs). The goal? Get those SOEs to cough up $50 billion in dividends to stop the fiscal deficit from exploding.
What Most People Get Wrong About 2026
You’ve probably heard people say the "New Capital" (IKN) is dead. It’s not. Prabowo just made his first presidential visit to Nusantara recently. He’s not abandoning it, but he is definitely prioritizing "human development" (meaning meals and schools) over "concrete development" (meaning bridges and airports).
He’s also pushing hard for Total Defense. In his view, a country is only strong if its people are healthy and its economy is independent. That’s why he’s obsessed with "downstreaming"—keeping raw materials like nickel and bauxite inside Indonesia to be processed. He wants projects worth $38 billion to be fast-tracked this year.
Actionable Insights for the Near Future
If you’re watching the new president of Indonesia to see where the country is headed, keep these specific triggers in mind for the rest of 2026:
- Watch the Deficit: Indonesia has a legal limit of a 3% budget deficit. If the MBG program gets too expensive and tax revenue stays low, something has to give. Watch for "quiet" cuts to regional service projects.
- The "Single Source of Truth": The government is launching a unified social registry called DTSEN. This will determine who gets help and who doesn't. If you’re a business owner or researcher, this data will be the most important metric for understanding Indonesian consumer power.
- The Gold Bank: Keep an eye on February 26. Prabowo is supposed to inaugurate Indonesia’s first "Gold Bank." He wants to stop Indonesian gold from being shipped abroad for storage. This could be a game-changer for the local financial sector.
- School Upgrades: The target is to renovate 60,000 schools this year. This is a massive opportunity for local contractors and the vocational education sector.
Prabowo’s second year is the real test. He’s moved past the shadow of his predecessor and is now steering the ship with his own map. Whether that map leads to a 5.4% growth or a fiscal cliff depends entirely on how well he can manage his massive 48-member cabinet without losing touch with the reality on the ground.