Honestly, if you looked out your window on Saturday morning and thought, "That’s it? That's the storm?" you aren't alone. New Jersey weather is a fickle beast. We just came off a Saturday where the "big" clipper was more of a nuisance than a knockout, leaving maybe an inch or two in spots like Newark and Hoboken. But things changed fast overnight.
The New Jersey weekend snow forecast has pulled a classic bait-and-switch. While we were all busy shoveling the light slush from Saturday, a coastal low pressure system decided to nudge further west. That tiny shift on a map makes a massive difference for your Sunday afternoon plans. Basically, we’re looking at a "Part Two" that’s going to be much punchier than the first half of the weekend.
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The Sunday Shift: Why the New Jersey Weekend Snow Forecast Changed
Meteorology isn't an exact science, especially when you have a coastal storm interacting with a complex coastline like ours. Early last week, the models suggested this Sunday storm would stay well out to sea. We were supposed to get some "glancing blows" or just a few flurries.
Then the "westward nudge" happened.
According to Dan Zarrow and the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, the track of this coastal low has shifted closer to the Jersey Shore. This means the moisture is being thrown much further inland. Instead of a coating, we are now staring down a widespread 2 to 5-inch event for a huge chunk of the state.
It’s the timing that’s going to get people.
If you wake up Sunday morning and see rain or nothing at all, don't be fooled. The atmosphere is doing a bit of "dynamic cooling." That’s a fancy way of saying the heavy precipitation will actually pull cold air down from the upper atmosphere, turning those raindrops into fat, heavy snowflakes by the afternoon.
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Snow Totals: Who Gets the Most?
It’s not going to be even. It never is in the Garden State.
The "sweet spot" for this Sunday, January 18, appears to be the I-95 corridor and the Route 1 corridor between Trenton and New Brunswick. In these central regions, we are looking at 3 to 5 inches of fresh accumulation. That’s on top of whatever survived from Saturday.
- Central and Northeast Jersey: This is the bullseye. Expect 2 to 5 inches. The National Weather Service has issued Winter Weather Advisories for 17 counties, including Bergen, Essex, Hudson, and Union.
- Northwest Jersey: Places like Sussex and Warren might actually see less this time around because they are further from the coastal moisture. Think 1 to 3 inches.
- The Jersey Shore: This is the messy zone. It starts as rain. By 2 p.m. or 3 p.m., as that "freezing line" shifts offshore, it flips to snow. Because it starts late, totals might stay in the 1 to 3-inch range, but it'll be that heavy, heart-attack snow that's a nightmare to shovel.
- South Jersey: Salem, Camden, and Gloucester are also in the 2 to 4-inch range. It’s a rare storm where almost the whole state gets a piece of the action.
Hour-by-Hour: When to Stay Off the Roads
The prime time for this storm is Sunday afternoon.
From about 10 a.m. to 2 p.m., it’s going to be a "mix" for most. You'll see sleet, rain, and some wet flakes. It looks ugly, but it doesn't really stick to the roads yet.
The real trouble starts between 3 p.m. and 9 p.m.
This is when the snowfall rates could hit an inch per hour. When it snows that fast, the salt trucks can't keep up. Visibility will drop. If you have a choice, get your grocery run done before noon or just stay put. The storm should start winding down and pulling away to the east by 10 p.m. or 11 p.m. Sunday night.
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The Frigid Reality After the Flakes
Here is what nobody is talking about yet: the cold.
Once this system clears out on Sunday night, the "Arctic gates" open. We are looking at a brutal start to the work week. By Tuesday morning, temperatures in parts of New Jersey will crash into the single digits. Wind chills could be near or below zero.
Anything that melts on Sunday afternoon is going to turn into a sheet of black ice by Monday morning's commute. It’s a "flash freeze" scenario.
Actionable Next Steps for NJ Residents
- Check the "Freezing Line": If you live in Monmouth or Ocean County, keep a close eye on the thermometer around 3 p.m. Once it hits 32°F, the rain-to-snow flip happens fast.
- Clear the Slush Early: If you have slush on your driveway from Saturday or Sunday morning, get it off now. If you leave it until Monday morning, it will be literal ice that a shovel won't touch.
- Charge Your Devices: While this isn't a "major" blizzard, 5 inches of heavy, wet snow can bring down some weak branches. Better to have your phone at 100% just in case.
- Salt Heavily: Since the temperatures are going to plummet Sunday night, use more ice melt than usual before you go to bed.
This isn't the "Storm of the Century," but it's the most significant winter weather we've seen so far in 2026. Stay smart, keep the local radar up on your phone, and maybe just enjoy the view from inside for the afternoon.