You’ve seen the panic on social media. Someone posts a single snow-covered map from a long-range model, and suddenly, the grocery stores are out of bread and milk. Honestly, forecasting in New Jersey during January is like trying to predict a mood swing. One day you’re walking the dog in a light fleece, and the next, you’re chipping three inches of ice off your windshield.
But looking at the actual data for the week of January 19, 2026, things are looking a bit more nuanced than the "Snowpocalypse" headlines suggest.
The Cold Snap is Real, But Dry
The start of the week is going to be a bit of a shock to the system if you’ve gotten used to the milder days we had earlier this month. Basically, we’re looking at a serious Arctic handshake. On Monday, January 19, the high is only going to hit 36°F. That sounds manageable until you see the low of 15°F.
And Tuesday? Tuesday is the kicker.
The high temperature for Tuesday, January 20, is forecasted to struggle its way up to 21°F. With a west wind blowing at 14 mph, that "feels like" temperature is going to be in the single digits for most of the morning. If you’re commuting into Newark or Jersey City, bundle up. It’s the kind of cold that bites.
The good news is that these first few days are looking incredibly dry. We have 0% to 5% chances of precipitation. It’s "bright but brutal" weather. Sunny skies, but you’ll want the heavy parka.
Why the Weekend Forecast is Stressing Everyone Out
Here is where it gets tricky. By the time we hit Friday, January 23, the atmosphere starts to get "active," as the meteorologists like to say. We see a shift from that dry, Canadian air to something with a bit more moisture.
Friday has a 25% chance of light snow, with a high of 38°F. That’s the warm-up act.
Saturday, January 24, is the day you actually need to watch. Currently, the data shows a 70% chance of snow. The high is 41°F, which might make you think it’ll just be a slushy mess, but the humidity is jumping to 70%. Depending on exactly where that storm track sits—whether it "kisses" the coast or moves inland—we could be looking at anything from a nuisance dusting to a genuine shoveling event.
Breaking Down the Mid-Week Transition
- Wednesday, Jan 21: High 38°F, Low 21°F. Partly sunny. A breather before the moisture arrives.
- Thursday, Jan 22: High 37°F, Low 23°F. Clouds start filling in.
- Friday, Jan 23: High 38°F. Light snow showers possible (25% chance).
- Saturday, Jan 24: High 41°F. High probability of snow (70%).
The temperature on Saturday is hovering right around that freezing line. In South Jersey or along the Shore, this could easily flip between rain and snow. In North Jersey, especially in higher elevations like Sussex or Passaic counties, it’s more likely to stay as the white stuff.
What Really Happened with the Polar Vortex?
There’s been a lot of talk about the polar vortex returning. Technically, it never "leaves," it just wobbles. According to the National Weather Service and recent discussions from experts like Dan Zarrow, we are seeing a classic mid-winter pattern where the jet stream dips low enough to let that Arctic air bleed into the Northeast.
This isn't a "once-in-a-century" event. It’s just January in New Jersey.
The humidity on Sunday, January 25, stays high at 72%, and we have a 45% chance of snow throughout the day. But look at the low for Sunday night: 7°F. That is a massive drop. Whatever falls on Saturday and Sunday is going to freeze solid by Monday morning.
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Actionable Steps for New Jersey Residents
Don't wait until Friday night to check your gear. If the Saturday snow hits the 70% probability mark, the stores will be a circus.
- Check your salt/brine supply now. Since Sunday night hits 7°F, any melting snow will turn into "black ice." You’ll need more than just a shovel; you’ll need traction.
- Verify your tire pressure. These massive temperature swings (from 38°F down to 7°F) will cause your "low pressure" light to pop on. It’s physics, not a leak.
- Insulate those outdoor spigots. We are looking at sustained sub-freezing temperatures for several nights in a row.
- Watch the Friday "Trend." By Friday morning, the models for the Saturday storm will be much more locked in. If the high stays at 41°F, expect heavy, wet snow that’s hard to shovel. If it drops to 34°F, it'll be fluffier but accumulate faster.
Keep an eye on the wind speeds too. With northwest winds hitting 16 mph on Sunday, the wind chill is going to be the real story by the end of next week. Stay warm, Jersey.