Snow in the Garden State is a fickle beast. One minute you're looking at a dusting, and the next, your shovel is buried under four inches of heavy, wet slush. Honestly, if you've lived here long enough, you know the "bread and milk" panic is practically a state pastime. But let's look at what's actually hitting the pavement right now.
Today, Sunday, January 18, 2026, we're right in the thick of it. The New Jersey snow forecast has been shifting all day, but the reality is finally settling in. Right now in places like Mount Holly, it's 32°F. It feels like 23°F because that northwest wind at 9 mph is cutting right through your parka. We are looking at a messy mix of rain and snow tonight with a 44% chance of precipitation still hanging over our heads.
What’s Dropping and Where
Basically, the state is split into "who got lucky" and "who’s currently slipping on their driveway." The central part of the state, especially along the Route 1 corridor from Trenton up to NYC, is the sweet spot for this round. We’re seeing totals in that 2-4 inch range for Central Jersey.
Up in North Jersey—places like Morristown and Parsippany—it’s been a bit of a slog. They’ve seen about 1-3 inches today. If you're further northwest, say in Sussex or Warren counties, it’s more of a coating to 2 inches. It’s not exactly a blizzard, but it’s enough to make the Monday morning commute a total headache.
The Jersey Shore is doing its usual dance with the freezing line. Down in Manahawkin and the southern coast, it’s mostly been a rain-to-snow transition. Temperatures there have been hovering in the mid-30s, limiting actual accumulation to maybe an inch or less. It’s a slushy mess.
The Immediate Outlook
Tonight is the "freeze-up" phase. The heavy snow storm conditions from earlier today are clearing out, but the temperatures are nosediving. In Mount Holly, we're expecting a low of 23°F.
- Monday, January 19: Expect a high of 35°F. It’ll be sunny, but that low of 17°F at night is going to turn any leftover slush into solid ice.
- Tuesday, January 20: This is the real arctic blast. We are looking at a high of only 22°F and a low of 9°F.
- The rest of the week: Wednesday stays cold at 35°F, and by Thursday, we might see 42°F.
Kinda crazy how fast it swings, right? You’re freezing on Tuesday and seeing 40s by Thursday. That's Jersey weather for you.
Why the Forecasts Keep Changing
Forecasting snow here is a nightmare for meteorologists. We sit right between the cold continental air from the west and the relatively warm Atlantic waters. A shift of just ten miles in a storm’s track is the difference between six inches of powder and a rainy afternoon.
Take today’s storm. Earlier forecasts were worried about a "worst-case scenario" with six inches along the coast. Instead, the storm nudged just close enough to bring in warmer air, turning that potential snow into rain for the southern counties. Dan Zarrow and the folks at the National Weather Service call this "conversational snow"—it's enough to talk about, but not enough to shut down the state.
Stay Safe Out There
Don't let the low totals fool you. Even an inch of snow followed by a 17°F night means black ice.
If you're heading out, remember that the DPW crews hit the main roads first. Side streets in places like Bergen or Burlington County might stay slick until well into Monday morning. Also, a quick reminder: business owners and residents are usually required to shovel their sidewalks within 12 to 24 hours of the last flake.
Basically, keep the salt handy. The ground is cold, the moisture is there, and the deep freeze is coming Tuesday.
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Actionable Next Steps
Check your local municipal website for specific snow removal ordinances. Many towns in North Jersey will ticket you if you haven't cleared your sidewalk by midday tomorrow. If you’re commuting on Monday, leave 20 minutes earlier than usual. The sun might be out, but the shadows on the road hide patches of ice that won't melt until the afternoon. Keep a half-tank of gas in the car—Tuesday’s single-digit temperatures are no joke for car batteries or fuel lines.