New Jersey is blue. That’s the gospel, right? Since 1992, the Garden State has been a reliable lock for Democrats, a place where GOP presidential dreams usually go to die. But something felt different this time around. If you walked through the diners in Toms River or stood on the boardwalk in Atlantic City during the lead-up to the New Jersey presidential election 2024, you could almost taste the shift in the air.
Honestly, the final numbers were a bit of a gut punch for the Democratic establishment. Kamala Harris won the state—let’s be clear about that—but the margin was thin. Razor thin, at least by Jersey standards. We’re talking about a single-digit gap.
The Shocking Margin in the New Jersey Presidential Election 2024
Most pundits expected a blowout. In 2020, Joe Biden coasted to a nearly 16-point victory here. This time? Harris took the state with $51.97%$ of the vote compared to Donald Trump’s $46.06%$. That’s a roughly 6-point margin.
You’ve got to go back to 2004 to find the last time a Republican kept it within ten points in New Jersey. Back then, George W. Bush was riding a post-9/11 wave. In 2024, the "red wave" didn't exactly flip the state, but it certainly soaked the carpet. Trump actually netted more raw votes in New Jersey this year than Ronald Reagan did in his 1984 landslide. Just let that sink in for a second. While Harris won, she received nearly 400,000 fewer votes than Biden did four years ago.
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Why the Garden State Shifted Right
It wasn't just one thing. It was basically a perfect storm of economic anxiety and shifting demographics. You’ve probably heard the talk about "reddening" suburbs, but in Jersey, it was more like a complete reimagining of the map.
- The Cost of Living: New Jersey is expensive. Ridiculously so. With inflation hitting the grocery store and the gas station, many voters in places like Passaic and Atlantic counties—areas that have traditionally leaned blue—felt the squeeze and blamed the incumbent administration.
- Third-Party Impact: Jill Stein and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (who was still on the ballot despite dropping out) pulled a combined total of over 60,000 votes. In a tight race, that matters. Stein specifically saw a surge in Middlesex and Passaic counties, likely driven by voters dissatisfied with the administration's stance on the conflict in Gaza.
- Voter Turnout: This is the big one. Total turnout was around $64.67%$. That sounds okay until you realize it was a significant drop from the $72%$ we saw in 2020. People stayed home.
The County-by-County Breakdown
If you look at the map, the "Blue Wall" of North Jersey showed some serious cracks. Passaic County, a Democratic stronghold for decades, actually flipped to Trump. That’s a seismic shift.
Atlantic County also went red, with Trump pulling $50.72%$ of the vote. Even in places Harris won, like Bergen and Hudson, the margins were significantly tighter than historical norms. In Bergen County, Harris managed to keep it blue, but the Republican gains in towns like Garfield and Elmwood Park were impossible to ignore.
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The Early Voting Phenomenon
One thing New Jerseyans finally embraced was early in-person voting. Over 1.1 million people showed up before Election Day. That’s four times the amount from previous years. It’s kinda funny—for a state that was late to the early-voting party, we sure made up for lost time.
But here’s the kicker: despite the long lines and the early enthusiasm, the overall vote count was lower. It suggests that while high-propensity voters were eager to get it over with, the "casual" voters who usually show up for the big show just didn't see a reason to participate this time.
What This Means for the Future of Jersey Politics
The New Jersey presidential election 2024 isn't just a historical footnote. It’s a roadmap for the 2025 gubernatorial race. Republicans in the state are feeling emboldened. They see a path forward that doesn't involve winning by 20 points in the suburbs, but rather by chipping away at the Democratic base in urban and working-class areas.
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The Democratic Party in New Jersey has a math problem. They still have a registration advantage of about 900,000 voters, but that advantage is shrinking. If they can't figure out how to reconnect with voters who feel left behind by the economy or alienated by foreign policy, the "Blue State" label might start to look a little purple.
Actionable Insights for the Next Cycle
If you’re a political junkie or just a concerned citizen, here is what you should be watching as we move toward the next local and state elections:
- Monitor Voter Registration Trends: Keep an eye on the "Unaffiliated" block. They make up nearly $35%$ of Jersey voters. How they lean in off-year elections will tell you everything you need to know about 2026 and beyond.
- Watch the "Blue" Counties: Don’t just look at who wins. Look at the margins in Passaic, Bergen, and Middlesex. If the GOP continues to make gains in these high-population areas, the state’s 14 electoral votes could actually be in play in 2028.
- Economic Policy over Identity: The 2024 results suggest that for many Jersey voters, the "kitchen table" issues of housing costs and taxes outweighed social rhetoric. Candidates who focus on the "Jersey Tax" and cost of living will likely have the upper hand.
New Jersey remains a Democratic state for now, but the 2024 results proved that nothing is guaranteed. The shift was real, the data is clear, and the political landscape of the Garden State has been permanently altered.