The dust has finally settled on the 2025 race, but if you look back at the New Jersey gubernatorial polls, you’ll see a story that isn't just about who won. It’s about how everyone—and I mean everyone—almost missed the shift. Honestly, for a few weeks there in October, it felt like the Garden State was about to pull a 2021 all over again.
Remember Jack Ciattarelli? He almost knocked off Phil Murphy back then. In 2025, he was back, and the polls were making people sweat.
The Numbers That Kept Strategists Awake
Early on, things looked safe for the Democrats. In July 2025, a Fairleigh Dickinson University (FDU) poll had Mikie Sherrill up by 8 points. It felt like a standard Jersey race. Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot and prosecutor, had that "tough but moderate" vibe that usually plays well in the suburbs. But then the mid-September numbers hit.
Suddenly, the "affordability" crisis wasn't just a talking point; it was a wrecking ball. People were angry. Rutgers-Eagleton released data showing that 28% of voters cared about one thing above all else: taxes. Not just "taxes" in a general sense, but specifically the property tax bill that arrives in the mail and makes you want to move to Delaware.
By October, the Quinnipiac University poll showed the gap tightening. Sherrill was at 51% and Ciattarelli was at 43%. Now, an 8-point lead sounds comfortable until you realize that among independent voters, they were basically tied. If you've spent any time in Jersey, you know the independents in places like Monmouth or Ocean County can flip a race in an afternoon.
Why the Polls Felt Like a Rollercoaster
Pollsters like Ashley Koning from Rutgers pointed out something crucial: the "vibe shift." While Sherrill was hammering Ciattarelli on his ties to the Trump administration—which was back in the White House and making waves—Ciattarelli was talking about "State Level DOGE" (Department of Government Efficiency) and cutting loops in bail reform.
It was a clash of two different New Jerseys:
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- The Federal Jersey: Voters worried about reproductive rights and standing up to the national GOP agenda.
- The Kitchen Table Jersey: Voters wondering why their grocery bill tripled and why the state budget keeps growing.
Actually, the Stockton University poll in October was probably the most depressing for the incumbents. It found that 67% of residents were dissatisfied with the economy. When two-thirds of the state is grumpy, being the "status quo" candidate is a dangerous game.
What the Polls Got Right (and What They Missed)
In the end, Mikie Sherrill won. She didn't just win; she outperformed her final polls. While Quinnipiac had her up by 8 in the final days, the actual margin ended up being closer to 14 points. Why the disconnect?
One big factor was the "enthusiasm gap." We always hear about it, but in this race, it was real. Sherrill’s support among women was a fortress. The polls showed her with a 20-point advantage among female voters, and on Election Day, that demographic turned out in droves. They weren't just "leaning" Democrat; they were making a point.
The Hidden Data Points
If you look at the cross-tabs of the FDU and Stockton polls, a few weird things pop up. For instance, Sherrill actually had higher favorability among Republicans (about 2.6 on a 10-point scale) than Ciattarelli had among Democrats (who gave him a 2.0). Basically, Democrats really didn't like Jack, but some Republicans were okay with Mikie's military background.
Also, the "undecideds" in the August Rutgers-Eagleton poll were at a massive 17%. Usually, those folks break for the challenger. This time? They seemingly stayed home or broke for the incumbent party because they were scared of the national volatility.
Actionable Insights for the Next Cycle
If you’re a political junkie or just someone trying to figure out where Jersey is headed, there are a few things to keep in mind for the 2026 midterms and beyond.
- Watch the "Affordability" Metric: If a poll shows "Cost of Living" rising as a priority over "Social Issues," the Republican candidate has a path. In 2025, Ciattarelli almost found it, but he couldn't overcome the "Trump factor" in the blue-leaning suburbs.
- The Gender Gap is the Whole Game: In NJ, if a Democrat is winning women by more than 15 points, the race is over. Period.
- Don't Ignore the "Unfamiliar" Rating: In October, nearly 25% of voters still said they were "unfamiliar" with the candidates. In a state with expensive media markets like New York and Philly, name ID is a brutal hurdle.
The 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial polls told us the state was frustrated, but the actual results told us the state was even more afraid of a hard right turn. Moving forward, the real test for Governor-elect Sherrill will be whether she can actually move the needle on those "evergreen" tax issues that have topped the polls for 15 years straight.
Next Steps for You: To see how these trends are already shifting for the 2026 cycle, you should check the latest Rutgers-Eagleton quarterly mood-of-the-state reports. They usually drop in late March and offer the first real look at how the new administration is being received by those "grumpy" independent voters.