New Jersey is blue. Always has been, right? At least that’s what the vibe was heading into November. But honestly, if you were looking at the new jersey 2024 election polls and then saw the actual numbers on election night, you probably did a double-take.
It wasn't just a slight miss. It was a "wait, did I read that right?" kind of moment.
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For months, the data suggested a comfortable, double-digit cruise for the Democrats. Then the actual humans in the Garden State showed up to vote, and things got weirdly close. We’re talking about a state that Joe Biden carried by nearly 16 points in 2020. This time? Kamala Harris took it by about 6 points. That’s a massive swing in four years.
The Gap Between the Math and the Reality
Why did the new jersey 2024 election polls struggle to capture the mood? Most late-October surveys, like the ones from Rutgers-Eagleton, were pinning the presidential gap at anywhere from 12 to 20 points. Even the "closer" polls had Harris up by double digits.
When the dust settled, Harris had 52% and Trump had 46%.
Trump actually managed to flip Atlantic County and made serious gains in places like Passaic and even deep-blue Hudson. If you look at the town-level data, it’s even more wild. Places like Garfield and Lodi—historically reliable for Democrats—went red.
It turns out the "undecided" voters in those polls weren't actually undecided. They were just quiet.
The Kim vs. Bashaw Factor
The Senate race followed a similar script but with a different ending. Andy Kim, who basically became a household name after he was spotted cleaning up the Capitol on January 6, was always the favorite. He was running for the seat vacated by Bob Menendez, whose legal troubles basically nuked his political career.
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Kim did win. He beat Republican Curtis Bashaw by about 10 points ($53.6%$ to $44%$).
But again, the polls were a bit off. Some earlier data had Kim up by 15 or 18. Bashaw, a moderate Republican who is pro-choice, managed to appeal to a slice of the Jersey electorate that wasn't necessarily "MAGA" but was definitely tired of the status quo in Trenton and D.C.
Kim’s victory is historic—he's the first Korean American in the U.S. Senate—but the margin confirms that New Jersey isn't the impenetrable fortress for Democrats it used to be.
Why the Jersey Shore (and Everywhere Else) Shifted
It wasn't just one thing. It was basically a "perfect storm" of local frustration.
- The Wallet Factor: Everyone is complaining about the price of eggs, but in Jersey, we have the added "bonus" of some of the highest property taxes in the solar system.
- Turnout Dips: In the blue strongholds like Newark and Jersey City, turnout was lower than in 2020.
- The "County Line" Drama: The whole primary season was dominated by a lawsuit over how ballots are designed. It created a lot of internal friction in the Democratic party.
Honestly, the new jersey 2024 election polls didn't account for how much the "affordability" crisis had moved the needle. According to an AP VoteCast survey, about $37%$ of NJ voters cited the economy as their number one issue. Immigration followed at $21%$. When you have half the state worried about paying their mortgage and the other half worried about the border, the traditional "blue state" talking points start to lose their edge.
Down-Ballot Surprises
The House races were supposed to be a snooze-fest, mostly. Democrats held onto 9 seats, and Republicans kept 3.
But look at the 7th District. Tom Kean Jr. was in a dogfight against Sue Altman. Most pundits thought it would be a coin flip. Kean ended up winning by about 5 points. In the 3rd District, which Andy Kim left behind, Herb Conaway won, but the margin was tighter than the registration numbers suggested it should be.
It feels like the state is vibrating on a different frequency lately.
What This Means for 2025 and Beyond
If you think 2024 was interesting, wait until you see the 2025 Governor's race. With Phil Murphy termed out, the field is wide open.
Mikie Sherrill and Josh Gottheimer are already positioning themselves on the Democratic side. On the Republican side, Jack Ciattarelli—who almost beat Murphy in 2021—is back for another round.
The 2024 results are basically a giant neon sign for the 2025 candidates: Don't ignore the middle. If a Republican can get within 6 points of winning New Jersey in a presidential year, a well-funded, moderate Republican can absolutely win the governorship in an "off-year" election when Democratic turnout usually craters.
Actionable Insights for Jersey Voters
- Check Your Registration Early: Don't wait until October 2025. New Jersey has moved to more permanent vote-by-mail lists, so make sure your address is current on the NJ Division of Elections website.
- Watch the Primaries: The "County Line" is dead. This means the 2025 primary ballots will look different (office-block style). Your vote actually carries more weight now because "party bosses" can't hide their preferred candidates in a special column anymore.
- Follow Local Polls Carefully: Look for "likely voter" samples rather than just "registered voters." As we saw in 2024, the people who say they might vote and the people who actually show up are two very different groups.
- Engage with the Issues: Taxes and utility costs are the top concerns for NJ residents right now. Demand specific plans from the 2025 gubernatorial candidates rather than just generic slogans.
The story of the new jersey 2024 election polls is really a story about a state in transition. We aren't a "red state" yet, not by a long shot. But the "deep blue" label? That’s looking a little more like a shade of purple lately.
Whether you’re in the Pinelands or the Palisades, the message from the 2024 data is clear: nobody’s vote should be taken for granted anymore.
To stay ahead of the next cycle, keep a close eye on the Fairleigh Dickinson and Rutgers-Eagleton releases throughout the spring, as they will be the first to test how the 2024 shift impacts the race for Drumthwacket.