You’ve seen the headlines. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, is basically a political Houdini. Just when you think he’s finally out of luck, he finds a way to wiggle out of the box. But lately, the box has been feeling a lot smaller.
If you look at the Netanyahu approval ratings in israel for early 2026, the data is a mess of contradictions. One day a poll says he’s toast. The next, his Likud party is back on top as the largest single faction in the Knesset. Honestly, trying to track his popularity is like trying to catch smoke with your bare hands.
Right now, we are looking at a deeply divided nation. On one hand, you have a solid 40% of the public that still trusts him, according to Gallup and recent Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) data. On the other, nearly 64% of Israelis think he should have resigned already because of what happened on October 7. That's a massive gap.
The Survivalist's Numbers
Let's talk real numbers. In January 2026, polls from outlets like Ma'ariv and Channel 12 show a weird trend. While his personal "suitability for Prime Minister" ratings often hover around 41%, his coalition is struggling to hit that magic 61-seat majority.
It's a game of "least worst" options.
When pitted against rivals like Benny Gantz or the newly resurgent Naftali Bennett—who recently launched his "Bennett 2026" bid—Netanyahu often looks vulnerable. For instance, recent Lazar Research polls show Bennett actually outperforming Netanyahu in head-to-head suitability. Yet, when you ask people which party they’ll vote for, Likud usually grabs about 26 to 28 seats.
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Why the disconnect?
Because Netanyahu’s base is incredibly loyal. Even if they’re mad about the security failures or the economy, many right-wing voters simply don't see a viable alternative who will be as "tough" on Iran or Palestinian statehood. They might not like him, but they trust him more than the "other guys."
The "Day After" Problem
The war in Gaza and the subsequent escalations with Iran have created a rally-around-the-flag effect that hasn't quite faded. You'd think a war would tank a leader's numbers forever, but in Israel, it’s complicated.
In late 2025, his trust rating dipped to about 30% during the peak of the tensions with Iran. People were nervous. They felt the government was too slow. But once the immediate military threat was managed, those numbers crept back up toward 40%. It’s a cycle of crisis and recovery.
But there is a ceiling.
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A huge chunk of the population—around 76%, according to some INSS studies—has lost trust in the government as a whole. They see the handling of the hostage crisis as a moral failure. They see the draft exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox as a slap in the face to secular reservists. These aren't just political talking points; they are deeply personal issues that affect the Netanyahu approval ratings in israel every single week.
Who is actually winning?
If an election were held today—and remember, the official date is October 27, 2026—the opposition would likely have the numbers to form a coalition, but only if they all play nice.
- Naftali Bennett: Currently the "wild card." His polls are swinging between 18 and 24 seats.
- Yair Lapid: Holding steady with the centrist Yesh Atid, but struggling to grow his base.
- Avigdor Liberman: Gaining ground by hammering the government on the Haredi draft.
Netanyahu’s strategy is basically to wait them out. He knows that the "anyone but Bibi" bloc is a fragile alliance of people who actually hate each other's policies.
What most people get wrong
The biggest misconception is that Netanyahu is "finished." We’ve heard that every year since 2019. The reality is that Israeli politics is no longer about "left vs. right." It is "Bibi vs. Not Bibi."
As long as he can keep his current coalition—the ultra-Orthodox parties and the far-right factions led by Smotrich and Ben-Gvir—he doesn't need 51% of the country to love him. He only needs about 45% of the voters to give him a path to 61 seats.
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What to watch next
If you want to know where the Netanyahu approval ratings in israel are headed, don't just look at the top-line number. Look at these three things:
- The Conscription Law: If Netanyahu can't pass a law that satisfies both the IDF and the Haredi parties, his government could collapse before October.
- The Hostage Negotiations: Any major breakthrough—or final failure—will swing his numbers by 5-10 points instantly.
- The "Bennett Factor": If Naftali Bennett successfully merges with other centrist factions, the right-wing vote will split, and that is Netanyahu’s biggest nightmare.
To stay ahead of the curve, keep an eye on the weekly Friday polls from Ma'ariv. They tend to be the most reactive to the "mood on the street" in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Also, watch the "suitability" metrics specifically—they often predict voter shifts long before the party-seat numbers change.
The bottom line? Netanyahu isn't as strong as he used to be, but he’s far from gone. In Israeli politics, 10 months is a lifetime, and 2026 is shaping up to be the most volatile year yet.
Check the latest IDI "War in the East" indices for a deeper look at how trust in the IDF vs. trust in the political leadership is diverging. This gap is the real story behind the numbers.