Honestly, the NET Power stock price has been a bit of a rollercoaster lately. If you’ve been watching the ticker (NPWR) on the NYSE, you know exactly what I mean. One day it’s the darling of the "clean firm power" world, and the next, it’s getting slapped with a price target cut that makes everyone second-guess their life choices.
Right now, as we sit in mid-January 2026, the stock is hovering around $2.74 to $2.82. That’s a far cry from its 52-week high of over $10. It’s been a rough ride for some, but if you look at the underlying tech and the massive pivot they just pulled off in late 2025, the story gets a whole lot more interesting than just a line on a chart.
What’s Actually Driving the Price Right Now?
Most people looking at the NET Power stock price are missing the forest for the trees. They see a sub-$3 stock and think "penny stock territory." But you've got to look at the institutional movement.
Just a couple of months ago, in November 2025, Fintel reported that the average one-year price target for NPWR was actually revised upward by 60% to about $7.34. That is a massive gap between current reality and analyst expectations. Why the disconnect? It's basically a bet on "Project Permian" and whether CEO Danny Rice can actually deliver on his promise to make natural gas the cleanest energy on the planet.
The tech behind this—the Allam-Fetvedt Cycle—is kinda wild. Instead of using air and making a bunch of $NO_x$ and $CO_2$ that goes up a smokestack, they burn natural gas with pure oxygen. The "working fluid" isn't steam; it's supercritical carbon dioxide ($sCO_2$). This means the $CO_2$ is captured inherently. No extra, expensive carbon capture plant needed on the back end.
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But here is the kicker: in their Q3 2025 update, they admitted that the oxy-combustion tech—the very thing everyone bought into—was deploying slower than they hoped. They even took a "non-cash impairment" on the technology's value. That hurt. It sent the stock tumbling because investors hate the word "impairment."
The Great Pivot: Why "Project Permian" Changed
If you’ve been following the news, you know NET Power isn't just a "one-trick pony" anymore.
Late in 2025, Danny Rice basically said, "Look, the world needs power now, and they need it clean." So, they partnered with a company called Entropy. Instead of waiting years to perfect their bespoke $sCO_2$ turbines for every site, they are starting Phase I of Project Permian in West Texas using standard gas turbines paired with Entropy’s post-combustion carbon capture (PCC).
- Phase I Goal: 1GW of clean power capacity.
- The Oxy-Tech: Still the long-term play, but they are being "opportunistic" now.
- The Partners: Occidental Petroleum is still at the table, planning to buy 30MW of the power and 100% of the captured $CO_2$.
This shift is why some analysts, like those at Barclays, recently upgraded the stock to "Equal Weight." They see that the company is finally being realistic about timelines.
Is the Stock Overvalued or a Steal?
Let's talk numbers, but keep it simple. The market cap is sitting around $610 million. For a company that expects to hit its first "fire" (actual power generation) between late 2027 and early 2028, that’s a lot of "hopium" priced in.
But consider this: J.P. Morgan’s 2026 Outlook is actually pretty bullish on the broader sector. They’re seeing a massive wave of AI spending. And what do AI data centers need? They need "firm" power. Solar and wind are great, but they don't run a GPU cluster at 3 AM when the wind isn't blowing.
NET Power is positioning itself as the answer to the AI power crisis. If they can prove that they can capture carbon without making the electricity too expensive, the NET Power stock price won't stay at $2.80 for long.
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The Bull Case
- Institutional Support: Big players like Adage Capital and Millennium Management are still holding significant chunks of the company.
- Strategic Pivot: Using Entropy’s tech to get projects moving faster reduces the "will it ever work?" risk.
- The "Energy Trifecta": They’re aiming for power that is clean, reliable, and low-cost. If they hit two out of three, they win.
The Bear Case
- Cash Burn: They aren't making money yet. Not even a little. The EPS is sitting around -$7.65 on a trailing basis.
- Execution Risk: Building first-of-a-kind (FOAK) power plants is notorious for delays and cost overruns.
- Natural Gas Volatility: While the EIA expects Henry Hub prices to stay around $3.50/MMBtu in 2026, any spike in gas prices makes the economics of these plants harder to justify.
What to Watch in 2026
If you're holding or thinking about buying, mark your calendars for March 9, 2026. That’s when the next big earnings update is expected.
We need to see if they’ve actually reached a Final Investment Decision (FID) for Phase I of Project Permian. If that gets pushed back again, expect the stock to test its 52-week low of $1.48. If they greenlight it and show a clear path to 2028 operations, we might finally see that $7 target start to look realistic.
Honestly, it’s a high-risk, high-reward play. It’s not for your grandma’s retirement fund. It’s for the part of your portfolio that you’re okay with seeing swing 10% in a single Tuesday afternoon.
Actionable Steps for Investors
Don't just stare at the chart. If you're serious about the NET Power stock price, you've got to do a little homework:
- Monitor the Permian Basin Infrastructure: Watch the progress of the Blackcomb Pipeline. It’s supposed to add 2.5 Bcf/d of capacity by late 2026. Better infrastructure in the Permian means cheaper feed gas for NET Power's flagship project.
- Check the "Class VI" Permits: These are the permits needed to actually shove $CO_2$ underground. Their sequestration partners need these to be approved by 2028/2029. If the EPA drags its feet, the whole project stalls.
- Watch the AI Data Center Narrative: Follow news about data center builds in Texas (ERCOT). If big tech starts signing power purchase agreements (PPAs) with carbon-capture gas plants, NPWR becomes a "picks and shovels" play for the AI boom.
- Set Tight Stop-Losses: Given the volatility and the $1.48 floor, you don't want to get caught in a "sunk cost" trap if the FID for Project Permian gets delayed until 2027.
The bottom line? NET Power is no longer just a "science project." It's a real-world construction and deployment play now. The stock is reflecting the "awkward teenage years" of a company moving from the lab to the field.