Honestly, if you tried to guess how the North Carolina high school football landscape would shake out back in August, you probably got a lot wrong. High school ball is just like that. One minute you've got a powerhouse like Reidsville looking invincible, and the next, a No. 17 seed is pulling off a "how did they do that?" upset in the second round. The NCHSAA football playoffs 2024 projections were a moving target from the jump, and now that the dust has finally settled at Kenan and Carter-Finley, we can see exactly where the experts were right—and where the bracket went completely off the rails.
It wasn't just about the blue bloods this year. Sure, seeing Tarboro hoist another trophy feels as natural as humidity in July, but the 2024 postseason gave us some genuine "did you see that?" moments. From 4A shootouts to defensive masterclasses in the 3A title game, the path to the championship was anything but predictable.
The 4A Heavyweights: Grimsley's Perfect Run
Going into the playoffs, everyone was staring at the West 4A bracket. Specifically, they were looking at Grimsley. If you followed the 2024 regular season, you knew the Whirlies were a problem. Led by five-star Tennessee commit Faizon Brandon at quarterback, they didn't just win games; they dismantled people.
The projection for the 4A final largely held true: Grimsley vs. Rolesville. It was the "style clash" everyone wanted. Rolesville came in with Braden Atkinson throwing touchdowns like he was playing Madden, but the state championship game on Friday night at Kenan Stadium proved that defense still wins titles in North Carolina.
Grimsley finished a perfect 16-0 season with a 35-23 win. While Brandon was the MVP, the real story was the defense. Duke signee Bryce Davis was a nightmare off the edge, racking up three sacks and basically living in the Rolesville backfield. Rolesville, which usually runs the ball well, was held to just 38 yards on the ground. That’s the difference. You can have the flashy passing attack, but if you can't run the ball when the December air gets cold, you're in trouble.
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4A Playoff Breakdown:
- Final Score: Grimsley 35, Rolesville 23
- Key Player: Faizon Brandon (MVP) & Bryce Davis (3 Sacks)
- The Surprise: Rolesville’s explosive run game getting neutralized to under 40 yards.
3A Chaos: The West Charlotte Defensive Wall
The 3A bracket was where the "projections" really started to get weird. For most of the season, Hickory was the talk of the town. They were the defending champs, riding a massive 30-game winning streak. Most people had them penciled into the state final.
Then came West Charlotte.
The Lions (13-2) were the No. 8 seed, but they played like a No. 1. Their semifinal win over Hickory's "video game" offense was the first sign that something special was happening. By the time they met Seventy-First in the championship, the narrative had shifted from "can anyone stop Hickory?" to "can anyone score on West Charlotte?"
The final was a 14-7 gritty, old-school defensive battle. Seventy-First came in with three 1,000-yard rushers—an insane stat for any level of football. West Charlotte held them to 45 yards rushing. Total. It was a defensive masterclass that reminded everyone why you can't just look at seeding and think you've got the winner.
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The Shock of the Tournament: Reidsville Falls
If there was one "lock" in the 2A projections, it was Reidsville. They had won 22 games in a row. They had stars like Dionte Neal and five-star tight end Kendre Harrison. They were the No. 1 seed in the West.
And then, the second round happened.
In what was easily the biggest upset of the 2024 NCHSAA playoffs, the No. 17 seed East Rutherford Cavaliers went into Reidsville and walked out with a 27-26 win. It was the first time the Rams lost before the fourth round since 2015. East Rutherford used a heavy ground game—Brandon Pinkerton ran for 186 yards—and just out-toughed the favorites.
With the favorite out, the door swung wide open for Monroe. The Redhawks (15-0) didn't miss the opportunity. They capped off an undefeated season by beating Northeastern 35-25 in the final. Even though their QB, Kaegan Chambers, had a bit of a rough night with three picks, Monroe's depth in the backfield with Zion Lindsey and Nymir Kendall was just too much for the Eagles to handle.
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1A Powerhouse: The "Tarboro T" Dominance
While other brackets were seeing upsets left and right, the 1A classification felt like a business trip for Tarboro. The Vikings' "single-wing" attack—often called the Tarboro T—is basically a cheat code at this point.
They met Corvian Community in the final. Corvian is a cool story—it’s a school that’s only been around for a few years, and here they were at 15-0, facing the ultimate final boss of NC high school football.
Tarboro didn't just win; they pounded the rock for 419 yards. They attempted exactly one pass the entire game. MVP Kamerin McDowell-Moore went off for four touchdowns and 233 yards. The final was 45-24, giving Tarboro its ninth state title. It’s kinda wild how everyone knows exactly what Tarboro is going to do—they’re going to run the ball right at you—and yet, almost nobody can stop it.
What We Learned From the 2024 Postseason
If you're looking at these results to try and figure out next year's NCHSAA football playoffs 2024 projections (or rather, the 2025 ones), there are a few things that stayed consistent.
- RPI is just a number. J.H. Rose proved this by making a deep run as a No. 30 seed, knocking off the No. 3 and No. 14 seeds in the first two rounds. Never count out a battle-tested team from a tough conference just because their seed is high.
- Health is everything. Reidsville lost their star tailback, Jariel Cobb, right before the playoffs. Grimsley lost Mitchell Summers to an injury during the title game. The teams that win are the ones that have the depth to survive these hits.
- The West vs. East Divide. For a long time, the West was seen as the dominant side of the state. In 2024, the split was pretty even, but the defensive physicality coming out of the Charlotte area (West Charlotte) and the Greensboro area (Grimsley) was the story of the year.
Your Next Moves for Following NC High School Ball
If you want to stay ahead of the curve for the next cycle of rankings and projections, don't just look at the final scores.
- Watch the Underclassmen: Keep an eye on guys like Faizon Brandon (Grimsley) and Dionte Neal (Reidsville). They are the engines that drive these projections.
- Track the Reclassification: The NCHSAA is always tweaking how schools are grouped. A 2A powerhouse moving up to 3A can flip a whole bracket upside down.
- Check the RPI Weekly: Once the 2025 season kicks off, the RPI (Ratings Percentage Index) will be the most accurate way to see who is actually "good" versus who just has a flashy record.
The 2024 season showed us that while projections give us a place to start, the games are won by the teams that can handle the cold, the pressure, and the physical grind of five straight weeks of playoff football.