Preseason polls are basically a Rorschach test for college hoops fans. You look at a list of twenty-five teams and see exactly what you want to see—either your squad is finally getting the respect it deserves, or the "experts" are out to get you again. Honestly, the ncaa preseason men's basketball rankings are less about who is actually the best and more about who won the press conference in May and June. With the transfer portal turning every roster into a moving target, trying to rank these teams in October is like trying to nail Jell-O to a wall.
It's chaotic. It's often wrong. And yet, we can't stop talking about it.
The Consensus Top 5: Who Actually Earned It?
If you look at the aggregate of the AP Poll, the Coaches Poll, and the early KenPom data, a few names keep surfacing at the top. Purdue entered the 2025-26 cycle as a heavy favorite for the number one spot in many circles, mostly because Braden Smith is still there.
Think about that for a second.
In an era where every halfway decent guard jumps for a NIL bag or the NBA draft, Smith stayed. He’s the reigning Big Ten Player of the Year and is currently on pace to potentially break the all-time NCAA assist record. When you have a floor general like that, voters are going to put you in the top three every single time. It's safe.
Then you have Houston. Kelvin Sampson has built a program that is essentially "plug and play" at this point. They lost some key pieces, sure, but with Milos Uzan coming in and returners like Emanuel Sharp, the analytics love them. KenPom actually had the Cougars at #1 in several preseason projections because the computer doesn't care about "star power"—it cares about adjusted defensive efficiency. Houston is always efficient.
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The Blue Bloods and the New Money
- Duke: Jon Scheyer landed the Boozer twins (Cameron and Cayden). Cameron is a 6-foot-9 freight train who can shoot. Even though they're freshmen, the talent ceiling is so high that a #6 ranking feels almost conservative.
- UConn: Dan Hurley didn't leave for the Lakers. That’s the biggest "recruiting win" of the year. Despite losing talent to the draft, the Huskies are sitting comfortably in the top 5 because, well, they've earned the benefit of the doubt.
- Kansas: Bill Self brought in Darryn Peterson, arguably the most hyped freshman in Lawrence since Andrew Wiggins. Peterson looked like a pro in their early scrimmage against Louisville.
Why the ncaa preseason men's basketball rankings Get It Wrong
The biggest trap voters fall into is overvaluing "returning production" while ignoring "roster chemistry." You can't just add three 20-point scorers from the portal and assume they’ll share the ball.
Take a look at the Arkansas Razorbacks. John Calipari moved his entire operation to Fayetteville, bringing a top-tier recruiting class and high-profile transfers like DJ Wagner and Trevon Brazile. On paper? They're a top 15 team. In reality? We’ve seen this movie before. Sometimes the "superteam" model takes months to gel, yet the preseason rankings usually slot them high based on name recognition alone.
The ACC is also in a weird spot. Analytics models like KenPom were notoriously low on the conference heading into this season, ranking North Carolina as low as #33 despite the Tar Heels being a mainstay in the AP Top 25. There is a massive disconnect between how humans view "talent" and how computers view "projected efficiency."
Players Who Shift the Needle
You can't talk about rankings without talking about the individuals who make them move. The Preseason All-America teams give us a hint of where the power lies.
Yaxel Lendeborg at Michigan is a name a lot of casual fans missed until the season started. The UAB transfer is a walking double-double. When Dusty May landed him, Michigan jumped from an "afterthought" to a top 10 team in some polls.
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Then there’s AJ Dybantsa at BYU. It’s weird seeing BYU as a destination for a projected #1 overall NBA pick, isn't it? But Kevin Young has flipped the script in Provo. Dybantsa’s presence alone turned a middle-of-the-pack Big 12 team into a legitimate top 20 threat. If he plays up to his billing, that #12 or #15 preseason ranking is going to look silly by February.
Mid-Major Sleepers the Polls Ignored
The Top 25 is usually a country club for the Power 4 conferences and the Big East. But if you're looking for value, keep an eye on the Memphis Tigers. Penny Hardaway grabbed Dug McDaniel from the portal, and while the AP voters were lukewarm, the American Athletic Conference coaches voted them as the clear favorite.
Also, don't sleep on Vanderbilt. They’ve been an absolute basement dweller in the SEC for years, but the preseason chatter around Nashville was different this time. They actually cracked the Top 10 in some mid-season updates after being completely unranked in October. That’s the problem with preseason polls—they don't account for a coach like Mark Byington completely revitalizing a culture in six months.
Practical Takeaways for the Season
If you’re using these rankings to inform your brackets or just to win arguments at the bar, keep these things in mind.
First, look at the Point Guard stability. Teams like Purdue and Houston stay at the top because their primary ball-handlers have been in the system for years. Avoid ranking teams high just because they "won the portal" if they don't have a proven floor general.
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Second, watch the Freshman Wall. Teams like Duke and Kansas rely heavily on 18-year-olds. They will look like world-beaters in November and might struggle during the grind of January conference play. The rankings usually over-hype these teams early.
Finally, pay attention to the KenPom vs. AP gap. When a team is ranked #15 by the AP but #40 by KenPom, that’s a "fraud alert." Usually, the computer is right. Conversely, if the computers love a team that the human voters are ignoring (like Auburn or Iowa State often are), that’s a team that will make a deep run in March.
Track the "Others Receiving Votes" category. Often, the team that finishes in the Final Four is someone who was sitting at "26th" or unranked in October. The value is always in the margins, not the top five.
Check the injury reports for teams like Florida. They had huge expectations coming off a national title, but their ranking is entirely dependent on the health of their frontcourt returners like Alex Condon. One twisted ankle in a November practice can turn a Top 10 preseason ranking into a bubble season real quick.