It is that time in January where every single bucket starts to feel like a statement. We are deep enough into the 2025-26 season that the "early season fluke" excuses have evaporated. Either you can play, or you can't. And if you’re in the running for the NCAA Player of the Year, you basically have to be perfect every night.
Winning this thing isn't just about leading the nation in scoring. Honestly, if it were that simple, the trophy would just go to whoever takes 25 shots a game on a bad team. It is about impact. It’s about being the person the opposing coach stays up until 3:00 AM worrying about. Right now, the race is absolute chaos.
The Men’s Race: Braden Smith vs. The New Blood
Everyone thought Cooper Flagg leaving for the NBA would leave a massive power vacuum. It did, but it’s being filled by a mix of grizzled veterans and "blink-and-you’ll-miss-them" freshmen.
Purdue’s Braden Smith is the guy everyone loves to watch—unless you're rooting for the other team. He’s a senior point guard who basically treats the court like a chess board. Last season he was dropping nearly 9 assists a game. This year? He’s chasing Bobby Hurley’s all-time NCAA assist record. If he hits that mark while keeping Purdue in the Top 10, it is going to be incredibly hard for voters to look elsewhere. There is something about a four-year floor general that just hits different for the selection committee.
But then you have the freshmen.
Cameron Boozer at Duke is a problem. Being the son of Carlos Boozer comes with expectations, but the kid is 6'9", 250 pounds, and moves like a wing. He’s essentially a "built-in-a-lab" modern basketball player. Then there’s AJ Dybantsa over at BYU. He is likely the number one pick in 2026, and he’s playing like it. Watching him in the mid-range is like watching a pro who accidentally ended up in a college gym.
And don't sleep on Graham Ike at Gonzaga. The man is a walking double-double. He’s one of those rare players who has already surpassed 2,000 career points and 1,000 rebounds. That kind of longevity and consistency is rare in the "one-and-done" era. He’s currently on the Wooden Award Midseason Top 25, and for good reason. He just doesn’t have "off" nights.
The Women’s Race: Audi Crooks and the UConn Machine
If you haven’t watched Audi Crooks at Iowa State yet, you are genuinely missing out. She is leading the country in scoring, averaging over 28 points. She dropped 47 on Iowa earlier this season. 47! It’s the kind of dominance that reminds people of the Caitlin Clark era, but with a completely different style of play. She is a physical force in the paint that nobody has found an answer for.
Meanwhile, in Storrs, the UConn factory has produced another superstar in Sarah Strong.
Geno Auriemma has seen a lot of greats, but Strong is doing something unique. She leads the Huskies in points, rebounds, assists, and steals. It’s rare to see a sophomore with that kind of "do-everything" DNA. The betting odds right now are basically a coin flip between her and Crooks.
Then you have Hannah Hidalgo at Notre Dame. She’s essentially a human blur. She’s second in the nation in scoring but also leads the country in making opposing point guards' lives miserable with her defense. She’s averaging nearly four steals a game.
What Actually Goes Into Winning?
People talk about the NCAA Player of the Year like it’s one single trophy. It’s not. You’ve got the Naismith Trophy, the Wooden Award, and the Associated Press (AP) honors. Usually, one player sweeps them all—like Cooper Flagg did in 2025—but occasionally we get a split.
Voters look at:
- Winning: If your team is .500, you aren't winning this. Period.
- The "Eye Test": Do you take over in the last four minutes?
- Efficiency: It’s 2026; we care about True Shooting percentage and PER more than ever.
- Narrative: Are you the senior leader or the transcendent prodigy?
The narrative part is huge. Voters love a story. Braden Smith breaking an all-time record is a story. Audi Crooks carrying Iowa State to a deep run is a story.
The Freshman Factor: Is It Fair?
There’s always a bit of a grumble among college basketball purists when a freshman wins. Since Kevin Durant did it in 2007, we’ve seen Anthony Davis, Zion Williamson, and Cooper Flagg take the trophy home as teenagers.
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Some feel it should be a "lifetime achievement" award for seniors who stayed. Honestly, I think that’s nonsense. If a freshman is the best player in the building, they’re the best player. If Cameron Boozer is better than every senior in the ACC, why shouldn't he be the NCAA Player of the Year? The talent gap in the top 1% of recruits is just that wide now.
Surprising Stats You Might Have Missed
- Yaxel Lendeborg (Michigan): Most people outside of the Big Ten aren't talking about him enough, but he’s averaging a double-double and might be the most versatile defender in the country.
- Tania Latson (South Carolina): The transfer from Florida State has completely changed the Gamecocks' offense. She’s averaging 25 points and is basically unstoppable one-on-one.
- JT Toppin (Texas Tech): He’s won Player of the Year in two different conferences already. That’s a stat that feels fake, but it’s 100% real.
Why This Year Feels Different
The transfer portal has made the race for NCAA Player of the Year feel like free agency. You have players like Olivia Miles moving to TCU and immediately becoming a candidate. It’s harder for fans to keep track of who is where, but it’s actually made the talent more concentrated. Every night is a "heavyweight" matchup.
We are also seeing a shift in how these awards are marketed. With NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness), these players are brands. A player with a huge social media following and a great story has a slight "noise" advantage when it comes to the media-voted awards like the Naismith. It’s just the reality of the game today.
Practical Steps for Following the Race
If you want to stay ahead of the curve and actually know who's going to win before the ceremony in April, here is what you should do:
- Watch the "Midseason Top 25" lists: The Wooden Award and Naismith Trophy both put these out in January. If a player isn't on that list now, they are almost certainly not winning.
- Track Quad 1 Wins: Voters care about how you play against the best. Check the NET rankings. A player who drops 30 on a Top-10 team carries five times the weight of a 40-point game against a "cupcake" school.
- Follow the KenPom Rankings: This is where the "efficiency" nerds (and many voters) hang out. If a player has a massive "Offensive Rating" on a top-rated team, they are a lock for a finalist spot.
- Keep an eye on February injuries: Every year, a frontrunner falls off because of a sprained ankle that costs them three weeks. Availability is the best ability when it comes to season-long awards.
The race is far from over. We’ve got about six weeks of regular-season basketball left before the conference tournaments start, and that is where the real legends are made. Whether it's the veteran stability of Braden Smith or the explosive ceiling of Audi Crooks, the NCAA Player of the Year award is going to come down to who blinks first in March.