If you told a college football fan five years ago that the 2026 National Championship would feature a 15-0 Indiana team as a heavy favorite against a double-digit seed Miami, they would’ve asked for a hit of whatever you were smoking.
But here we are.
NCAA college football today is a fever dream of billionaire-backed rosters, a transfer portal that never sleeps, and a playoff bracket that looks more like March Madness than the old-school bowl system. It’s January 17, 2026. We are exactly 48 hours away from the kickoff at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. The air in South Florida is thick with humidity and the smell of a sport that has fundamentally mutated.
The Hoosiers are currently an 8.5-point favorite. Read that again. Indiana. Favorite. For a national title.
The Chaos of the 2026 Transfer Portal Deadline
While Curt Cignetti prepares his Indiana squad for the biggest game in program history, the rest of the country is essentially playing a high-stakes game of Musical Chairs: Millionaire Edition.
Yesterday, Friday, January 16, marked the closing of the winter transfer portal window. It was absolute carnage. We saw over 3,000 players officially enter the database this cycle. But the biggest story isn’t who’s moving—it’s who’s fighting to stay.
Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss just filed a lawsuit against the NCAA in Lafayette County. Why? Because the NCAA denied his request for a seventh year of eligibility, citing "inadequate medical documentation." Chambliss, who just led the Rebels to a Fiesta Bowl appearance on January 8, claims the denial is "bad-faith and arbitrary."
It’s getting messy.
🔗 Read more: Hulk Hogan Lifting Andre the Giant: What Really Happened at WrestleMania III
He’s not alone. Ohio’s Parker Navarro is also stuck in the "appeal process" for a seventh season. Meanwhile, Michigan safety Rod Moore actually won his battle; the NCAA granted him a sixth year, and he’s officially returning to Ann Arbor.
The portal isn't just a backup plan anymore. It’s the primary way to build a contender. LSU, under Lane Kiffin, currently holds the #1 ranked portal class for 2026, proving that if you have enough NIL money and a flashy enough Twitter account, you can rebuild a roster in roughly 45 minutes.
How Indiana and Miami Broke the 12-Team Bracket
The 2025-2026 postseason has been a brutal reality check for the "Blue Bloods."
Look at the path Miami took to get to this Monday’s game. They were the #10 seed. They had to go into College Station and beat #7 Texas A&M in a 10-3 rock fight. Then they went to the Cotton Bowl and shocked #2 Ohio State 24-14. Finally, they outlasted Ole Miss 31-27 in the Fiesta Bowl.
This isn't the Miami of the 90s. This is a team built on the back of former Georgia QB Carson Beck, who used his extra year of eligibility and a massive NIL package to relocate to Coral Gables.
And then there's Indiana.
- 15-0 record.
- First-ever road win at Penn State in Week 11.
- A 56-22 demolition of Oregon in the Peach Bowl semifinal.
- A 38-3 beatdown of Alabama in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal.
Cignetti hasn't just turned Indiana into a winner; he's turned them into a machine that makes the old SEC look soft. People are already whispering about NFL teams circling him. In fact, reports surfaced on January 14 linking Cignetti to the Pittsburgh Steelers job after Mike Tomlin stepped down.
💡 You might also like: Formula One Points Table Explained: Why the Math Matters More Than the Racing
The $6.5 Million Question: NIL and the "Unicorns"
Let’s talk about Ty Simpson.
The former Alabama quarterback recently declared for the 2026 NFL Draft. On the surface, that’s normal. But the numbers behind his decision are staggering. Simpson reportedly turned down a $6.5 million NIL offer from Miami and similar mid-seven-figure offers from Tennessee and Ole Miss just to stay in college for another year.
His agent, Peter Webb, called him a "unicorn."
Honestly? He’s right. In the landscape of NCAA college football today, most kids are taking the money. Oregon’s Dante Moore did the opposite—he stayed. Moore was projected as a top-two NFL pick, potentially going #2 overall behind Fernando Mendoza. Instead, he decided to run it back in Eugene.
This is the new leverage. College football can finally outbid the NFL for its own talent.
The Playoff Expansion Gridlock
If you think 12 teams is enough, the Big Ten and SEC are already bored with it.
There is a massive power struggle happening right now. The Big Ten is pushing for a 24-team playoff. They’ve even offered a "compromise" of 16 teams, provided the rest of the NCAA agrees to hit 24 teams within the next few years.
📖 Related: El Paso Locomotive FC Standings: Why the 2025 Surge Changes Everything for 2026
Why? Because the Big Ten wants to ensure teams like Nebraska, who haven't beaten a ranked opponent since 2016, actually have a path to the postseason. Matt Rhule is under immense pressure in Lincoln. If the playoff stays at 12, his margin for error is zero. If it goes to 24, he might actually survive.
What to Watch for on Monday Night
If you're tuning in to the National Championship on Monday, January 19, forget the jersey names. This is a clash of two very different "new world" philosophies.
- The Indiana "Google Maps" Offense: They find the gap, they recalculate, and they destroy you. Their efficiency against Oregon was terrifying.
- The Miami "Mercenary" Defense: Mario Cristobal has assembled a unit of elite transfers that play with a chip on their shoulder. They allowed only 14 points to an Ohio State offense that was supposed to be unstoppable.
The game kicks off at 7:30 p.m. EST on ESPN. Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit are on the call.
Moving Forward: Actionable Insights for Fans
The sport is moving fast. If you want to keep up with NCAA college football today without losing your mind, here is how you should approach the next few weeks:
- Watch the Post-Game Portal Window: Because Indiana and Miami are in the title game, their players have a special extension. They have until January 24 to enter the transfer portal. Expect a "championship tax" where players from the winning team suddenly become the most expensive targets in the country.
- Track the Coaching Carousel: With the NFL wild-card round ending, the "Cignetti to the NFL" rumors will either catch fire or fizzle out based on Monday's result. Keep an eye on the 15-day window that opens for players if a coach leaves.
- Monitor the Chambliss Lawsuit: If Trinidad Chambliss wins his case against the NCAA, it sets a legal precedent that medical redshirts can be litigated in state courts. This could effectively end the NCAA's ability to enforce eligibility limits.
- Update Your 2026 NFL Mock Drafts: Now that Dante Moore and Ty Simpson have made their moves, the quarterback board is completely reset. Look for "risers" from the G5 level who are using the portal to showcase themselves for 2027.
The "good old days" of regional rivalries and four-year players are dead. But if the trade-off is an undefeated Indiana playing a resurgent Miami in a 12-team playoff, maybe the new days aren't so bad after all.
Just make sure you have your legal team and your checkbook ready. Everyone else in college football does.
Next Steps for the 2026 Season:
- Check the final 247Sports portal rankings on January 18 to see where your team landed after the Friday deadline.
- Set a reminder for the National Championship kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday.
- Follow the Lafayette County court filings if you want to see the future of NCAA eligibility rules in real-time.