NCAA AP Football Top 25: Why Most Fans Are Completely Wrong About the Rankings

NCAA AP Football Top 25: Why Most Fans Are Completely Wrong About the Rankings

If you had told me in August that Indiana would be sitting at the top of the NCAA AP football top 25 while traditional blue bloods scrambled for scraps, I probably would’ve laughed in your face. Honestly. That's the beauty of this sport. One minute you're a "basketball school," and the next, you're the undisputed #1 team in the country, staring down a national title.

The AP Poll is a weird, beautiful, and often frustrating beast. It’s not just a list of names; it’s a weekly referendum on our collective sanity. Fans obsess over every single point move, and voters—those 60+ journalists across the country—carry the weight of entire fanbases on their shoulders.

But here’s the thing: most people don't actually understand how the rankings work or why they often look so different from the Playoff committee’s logic.

The Chaos of the Current NCAA AP Football Top 25

We are currently witnessing one of the most lopsided and unpredictable seasons in recent memory. Just look at the top.

Indiana has been the story of the year. Under Curt Cignetti, they didn't just win; they dominated. Going 15-0 isn't a fluke. It's a statement. They held onto that #1 spot in the AP Poll with a grip like a vise, earning 66 first-place votes as we headed into the final stretch.

Then you have the "resurrection" schools. Miami (FL) somehow climbed back from the abyss. They were ranked #10 in the final regular-season poll but played like a top-three team when the lights got bright. They knocked off Ohio State. They survived Ole Miss. It’s the kind of run that makes the AP voters look like geniuses or fools depending on which week you check the ballot.

Why the AP Poll Still Matters (Even with the CFP)

You've probably heard someone say the AP Poll is "irrelevant" now that we have a 12-team playoff.

Wrong.

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Basically, the AP Poll provides the historical context that the selection committee ignores. The committee is a snapshot; the AP Poll is a diary. It tracks the momentum. It rewards the "eye test" in a way that spreadsheets sometimes can’t. When Texas Tech jumped to #4 this year, it wasn't just about their 12-1 record. It was about the fact that they were arguably the most dangerous team in the country for a six-week stretch.

Voters in the AP Poll aren't just looking at wins and losses. They’re looking at:

  • Game Control: Did you actually dominate, or did you fluke into a win?
  • Injuries: If your star QB is out, the AP voters usually penalize you immediately. The committee might wait.
  • Strength of Schedule (SOS): This is where it gets messy. An SEC win is often "worth" more than a Big Ten win in the eyes of some voters, which leads to those massive debates every Sunday morning.

Breaking Down the Top 10 Reality

Let's look at where things stood as we hit the championship phase. This wasn't your typical "Alabama and everyone else" year.

1. Indiana (15-0): The undisputed kings. Fernando Mendoza becoming the first Hoosier to win the Heisman basically sealed their legacy.
2. Georgia (12-2): Still the standard for the SEC, though they looked human at times.
3. Ohio State (12-2): A powerhouse that somehow couldn't finish the job when it mattered most.
4. Texas Tech (12-2): The biggest surprise out of the Big 12.
5. Oregon (13-2): Dan Lanning has built a monster in Eugene, even if they stumbled against Indiana.

The gap between #1 and #10 was massive this year. When Miami was sitting at #10, people thought they were just a "good" team. Then they went on a tear. The AP Poll isn't a crystal ball, but it’s the best barometer we have for who actually earned their spot through the grind of a 12-game schedule.

The Group of Five Snub?

Every year, we have the same conversation. Does the NCAA AP football top 25 hate the little guys?

Kinda.

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Look at Tulane and James Madison. Both had incredible seasons. Tulane finished 11-3 and landed at #17. James Madison was 12-2 and sat at #19. These teams are often better than the 3-loss SEC or Big Ten teams ranked ahead of them, but they lack the "brand power" to move up.

It’s a popularity contest to some degree. You can’t deny it. If James Madison had "Alabama" on their jerseys with that same record, they’d be in the top five. That's just the reality of human voting.

What Fans Get Wrong About "Resume"

People love to scream about "Quality Losses."

"But we lost to the #2 team!"

Voters are moving away from that. In 2025-2026, we saw a shift. Winning actually matters again. Vanderbilt cracking the top 15 (#13) was proof. They didn't get there because they lost "well"; they got there because they beat people they weren't supposed to beat.

The SEC vs. The World

The SEC had a national-best six teams in the rankings at various points, but for the first time in a long time, they didn't own the top three. The Big Ten's expansion changed the math. With Oregon, USC, and Washington now in the mix, the Big Ten is a gauntlet that rivals anything in the South.

The AP Poll reflected this. We saw Michigan and USC hovering in the late teens (#18 and #16 respectively), struggling to maintain their status in a conference where every week is a playoff game.

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How to Read the "Others Receiving Votes"

If you want to know who is going to be ranked next week, look at the "Others Receiving Votes" section. It's the waiting room. Teams like Iowa, North Texas, and Houston spent weeks there before finally breaking into the top 25.

It takes a lot to break the "sticky" nature of the top 25. Once a team is in, voters are reluctant to kick them out unless they lose to a basement dweller. Conversely, if you're unranked, you usually need a "statement win" to get the 20-25 spot.


Actionable Insights for the 2026 Season

If you're trying to track the NCAA AP football top 25 or use it for your own analysis, keep these three things in mind:

  • The "October Fade": Many teams start 4-0 against cupcakes and land at #15. Ignore them. Real rankings don't start until Week 7.
  • The Heisman Factor: AP voters are human. If a team has a Heisman frontrunner like Fernando Mendoza, they will naturally be ranked higher than a "balanced" team with the same record.
  • Watch the Group of 5 early: If a team like Tulane or Boise State starts 3-0 with a Power 4 win, they are almost guaranteed a spot in the final top 25 because of the new playoff format.

The rankings are a mess, they’re biased, and they’re occasionally nonsensical. But they are also the heartbeat of college football. Without the arguments, the "disrespect" narratives, and the Sunday morning meltdowns, the sport just wouldn't be the same.

Keep an eye on the transfer portal movements this spring. As we’ve seen with Indiana and Miami, the right three or four players can take a team from "unranked" to a #1 spot in the NCAA AP football top 25 in a single off-season.

Don't just look at the numbers. Look at the momentum. That’s where the real story lives.