North Carolina is basically the capital of ticket-splitting right now. You’ve got a state that went for Donald Trump at the top of the ticket, yet somehow, Democrats managed to claw back the Lieutenant Governor’s mansion. Honestly, if you were just looking at the nc lt governor race polls leading up to November 5, 2024, you probably expected a coin flip. And a coin flip is exactly what we got—at least until the very end.
Rachel Hunt, a Democratic State Senator and the daughter of former Governor Jim Hunt, pulled off a win that felt like a throwback to a different era of NC politics. She beat Republican Hal Weatherman by roughly 105,000 votes. In a state of over 7 million voters, that's not exactly a landslide, but in the context of the 2024 red wave, it’s a massive deal. Hunt finished with 49.53% of the vote compared to Weatherman’s 47.64%.
Why the nc lt governor race polls were so messy
Pollsters had a tough time with this one. Unlike the Governor’s race, where Josh Stein eventually blew Mark Robinson out of the water by nearly 15 points, the Lieutenant Governor’s race stayed tight. People just didn't know these candidates as well.
Take a look at the data from October 2024. ActiVote had them in a dead heat at 50-50. Cygnal, a GOP-leaning firm, actually had Hunt up by two points (43% to 41%) in mid-October, but with a massive 13% of voters still "undecided." That’s the "ghost" in the machine. A lot of people walked into the booth knowing they wanted Trump for President and Stein for Governor, but they hadn't even thought about the Lt. Gov spot.
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The Breakdown of the Numbers
- Rachel Hunt (D): 2,768,539 votes (49.53%)
- Hal Weatherman (R): 2,663,183 votes (47.64%)
- Shannon Bray (L): 104,192 votes (1.86%)
- Wayne Jones (C): 53,938 votes (0.96%)
Wait, why did the Libertarian and Constitution party candidates matter? Because together, they grabbed about 2.8% of the vote. In a race decided by less than 2%, those "protest votes" are the difference between a Hunt victory and a Weatherman administration.
The Robinson Factor
You can't talk about these polls without talking about the man Hunt is replacing: Mark Robinson. Robinson's run for Governor was, to put it mildly, a disaster for the NC GOP. As his numbers tanked following a series of scandals and high-profile reporting from CNN, the "stench" of that campaign drifted down-ballot.
Even though Hal Weatherman ran a fairly disciplined, traditional conservative campaign focused on the economy and election integrity, he was constantly fighting against the grain. Democratic ads worked hard to link every Republican on the ballot to Robinson. For a lot of suburban voters in Wake and Mecklenburg counties, that was a dealbreaker.
Voter Demographics shifted the tide
North Carolina’s electorate is changing fast. We have 7.6 million registered voters now, and the biggest group isn't Democrats or Republicans. It’s Unaffiliated voters, who make up about 38% of the pie.
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According to exit data and registration stats from late 2024:
- Women under 30 in NC broke for Democrats by about 10 points.
- Men under 30 went the opposite way, leaning Republican by 12 points.
- Black voters remained the backbone of the Democratic win, with 73% registration in the party.
- White voters remained heavily Republican (41% registration), but Hunt won enough of them in the suburbs to survive.
Where Weatherman lost the lead
Hal Weatherman did exactly what a Republican is supposed to do in rural NC. He dominated the "red sea" of the west and the coastal plain. But the problem is the math. Urban voters might have dropped from 33% to 27% of the total electorate since 2020, but the suburbs exploded, now making up a huge chunk of the total vote.
Hunt performed exceptionally well in these suburban rings. She flipped counties that were traditionally purple or lean-red by focusing on two things: public school funding and reproductive rights. She didn't try to be a progressive firebrand; she leaned into her "Hunt" legacy—a name that still carries weight with older North Carolinians who remember her father’s four terms as governor.
What this means for 2026 and beyond
If you’re looking at these nc lt governor race polls as a predictor for the future, the takeaway is clear: North Carolina is a "split-personality" state. Voters here are perfectly comfortable choosing a Republican for President and a Democrat for the Council of State.
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The Lt. Governor in North Carolina doesn't actually have a ton of power—they preside over the Senate and sit on the Board of Education—but they have a "bully pulpit." Hunt is going to use that pulpit to push back against the GOP-controlled legislature, especially on education vouchers and healthcare.
Actionable Insights for NC Voters
- Watch the Council of State: Don't just focus on the Governor. The Lt. Gov, Attorney General, and Secretary of State often have more direct impact on your daily life.
- Register as Unaffiliated: If you want to have the most influence in primaries, joining the 2.8 million Unaffiliated voters in NC allows you to choose which primary ballot you want to cast.
- Check the Board of Elections: The 2024 results are certified, but with 2026 midterms approaching, checking your registration status now at the NCSBE website is the only way to ensure your voice is heard next time.
The reality of North Carolina politics is that "safe" seats don't really exist anymore. Every cycle is a battle for that tiny 2-3% of voters in the middle who decide who runs the state. Rachel Hunt found those voters. Hal Weatherman almost did. In the end, the suburbs decided that the "Hunt" brand was a safer bet than another four years of GOP control in the Lt. Governor’s office.
Next Steps for Staying Informed:
To understand how these shifts impact future policy, you should track the upcoming legislative sessions in Raleigh. Pay close attention to how the "split" executive branch (a Democratic Governor and Lt. Governor vs. a Republican-led General Assembly) handles the state budget and education funding through 2025. This tension will likely define the political landscape heading into the 2026 midterms.