If you’ve been checking the box scores lately, you know the vibe around the league has shifted. We are officially in the "weird" part of the calendar. It’s mid-January 2026, the trade deadline is looming on February 5, and the usual logic just isn't applying this year.
Honestly, the NBA landscape feels like it’s being held together by tape and high-stakes gambles.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are basically a buzzsaw. They’re sitting on top of the world with a +110 betting line to repeat as champions, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing like he’s bored with regular humans. He’s currently at 111 consecutive games scoring at least 20 points. He’s chasing Wilt’s record of 126. It’s ridiculous.
But behind that dominance, the rest of the league is a chaotic mess of injuries and "second apron" anxiety.
The Injury Bug Is Eating the MVP Race
You can't talk about sports news basketball nba right now without mentioning the training room. It’s a graveyard.
Nikola Jokic was the runaway favorite for his fourth MVP until he hyperextended his knee and picked up a bone bruise in late December. Now, he’s watching from the sidelines. Denver is still a narrow favorite in their matchups—like the 1.5-point edge they held over Charlotte this week—but they look human without the Joker.
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The new league rules on award eligibility are starting to bite. You have to play 65 games. Period. Giannis Antetokounmpo has already missed 14 games. He’s basically one bad ankle sprain away from being disqualified from the MVP conversation entirely, despite putting up monster double-doubles every night.
Then there’s the Mavs. Luka Doncic is doing Luka things, but the roster is thin. They’re missing Anthony Davis (hand) until April and Kyrie Irving is still working his way back from that ACL tear.
Who actually has a shot at the trophy?
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: The clear #1. He doesn't turn the ball over, he's the best scorer in the league, and his team never loses.
- Cade Cunningham: The Detroit leap is real. He hasn't scored under 27 points since the calendar flipped to 2026.
- Jaylen Brown: He’s been the best player in the East for the last month.
- Cooper Flagg: The kid is legit. He’s neck-and-neck with Kon Knueppel for Rookie of the Year, even dropping 42 on Utah recently.
Why the Trade Deadline Feels Like a Standoff
The "second apron" is the new boogeyman. Because of the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), teams aren't just trading players anymore; they’re trading spreadsheets.
Take the Boston Celtics. They won a title a couple of years ago, but they’ve basically chosen to gut their depth to avoid the tax. They moved Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. Jayson Tatum is out for the year. They’re winning more than people thought they would, but they’re clearly in a "gap year."
The Atlanta Hawks already kicked things off by shipping Trae Young to the Washington Wizards for what most insiders called an "underwhelming" return. It was a salary dump, plain and simple.
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Now, all eyes are on Memphis and Toronto.
There is a massive rumor floating around about Jaren Jackson Jr. heading to the Raptors. Memphis is buried in the West standings and they might be ready to pivot. Toronto is 4th in the East and looking for that one piece to actually challenge the Knicks or the Celtics. A package involving Immanuel Quickley and Gradey Dick is the talk of the league, but the Grizzlies are hesitant to pull the trigger on a full rebuild.
The Western Conference vs. The World
The power imbalance is getting kinda stupid. If you're a contender, you probably live in the West.
The Thunder, Nuggets, and Spurs (thanks to a terrifyingly healthy Victor Wembanyama averaging 30 and 14) are the heavyweights. In the East, it’s basically the Knicks and then a giant question mark. The Bucks are struggling with age, and the 76ers are, as always, one Joel Embiid grimace away from disaster.
Wembanyama is the guy nobody wants to talk about because it’s too scary. He’s 21 years old and recording more blocks per game than 14 entire NBA teams. Read that again. One guy is out-blocking half the league.
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What to Watch For Next
If you're trying to stay ahead of the curve, keep your eyes on the "selling" teams. The Charlotte Hornets are likely to move guys like Josh Green or Grant Williams to free up cap space. The Wizards, despite getting Trae Young, are still in the basement and will likely flip more veterans before February 5.
Watch the 65-game tracker for the MVP race. If Jokic doesn't get back on the court by late January, the crown is Shai’s to lose.
Also, keep an eye on the Detroit Pistons. They aren't the joke of the league anymore. With Cade Cunningham playing at an All-NBA level, they might actually be buyers at the deadline for the first time in a decade.
Check the injury reports about two hours before tip-off. With the altitude in Denver and the heavy travel schedules this month, "injury maintenance" is the phrase of the week. Teams are resting stars at the slightest sign of soreness to preserve them for the spring.
Pay attention to the 10-day contract market starting now. With so many rotations thinned out by injuries, some G-League call-up is going to have a "Linsanity" moment in the next three weeks. It happens every year.
Follow the money. The teams hovering just above the luxury tax line are the ones most likely to make a "confusing" trade that is actually just about the owner’s bank account.
Stay tuned. February is going to be a wild ride.